You may have seen that some random Seattle Sounders fan and writer here at Sounder at Heart took advantage of Las Vegas, and well everyone, thinking that LAFC was going to just run over the Sounders. He also took advantage of Toronto being underdogs in Atlanta. That someone is me and I am here to guide through how that won’t be happening again in the final but that doesn’t mean to stay away from the betting markets.
First, some disclaimers:
- Sadly, it is still illegal to place sports bets in Washington.
- Odds are always changing, so check before your bet.
- None of these opinions should be considered advice for betting, just a man shouting at the clouds because someone let him do it.
- If you’re inclined to place a bet, I strongly recommend driving into Oregon, completing your bets, and driving back for the game.
- All odds, unless noted, are taken from the Oregon Lottery’s Online Sports Betting platform, Scoreboard. The perk of living behind enemy lines.
Now to the fun part, talking what you can and can’t bet right now on the MLS Cup Final and how the markets expect this match to go.
Full Time Moneyline
Compared to the Western Conference final when you could find Seattle as +555 to win in regulation, this is a bit of a letdown. What this does say, Seattle is the favorite. A small favorite but a favorite nonetheless. Most of this is likely attributable to Seattle’s home-field advantage in the final and that this match at a neutral side would be a true pick ‘em.
For those wondering about the math, a bet of $20 on the Sounders returns $36. So a $16 profit on a $20 bet. This is definitely nothing to scoff at but is not the best odds.
As you would expect, it is slightly more likely the match goes to extra time (a draw) than Toronto winning but those are pretty close lines. If you were looking to a hedge the Seattle in regulation $20 bet, you would only need a $7.25 bet on the matching going to extra time to recoup your $20.
FanDuel is setting the spread at -1 (+250) for Seattle, while Oregon’s options are more varied.
The option for Seattle to win by only one goal is not part of the FT spread options but there is some good value to be found if you think Seattle will win by two. Interestingly enough, Toronto at a one-goal victory is a good percentage lower than the straight money line for them to win. Overall, there is not much value in the general spread options since you need Seattle to win by two and there are better ways to find a two-goal victory betting line (you’ll see below).
All of that said, a $20 bet on Seattle at -1.5 (winning by two goals or more) will return $68. A $48 profit, not bad if you trust that scoreline.
First Half Bets
Betting whole matches isn’t your thing, you like to really break it down and see what’s going to happen by half, well then here you go.
The odds on getting goals in the first half are pretty friendly for Seattle fans. If Sounders can take a lead into half +145 is a great pick. While that doesn’t sound great, if you are confident in Seattle’s early scoring then you could turn $20 into $49, a $29 profit.
So far in these playoffs, Seattle leads in first halves 4-1 and have taken the lead to halftime twice (LAFC and FC Dallas). Toronto meanwhile starts slow, but does still have a lead in first halves overall at 2-1. They were up 1-0 against DC United and tied with Atlanta. Seattle’s offense gets going quick in these playoffs and that could really help Seattle.
Seattle team goals are not a friendly bet if you expect Seattle to only grab one, if you think the Rave Green can find at least two, then +410 is going to be a massive value pick with $20 turning into $102, an $82 profit.
Toronto’s slow starts could lead you to betting the under 0.5 but that isn’t worth it, if you feel the Seattle defense will give up their second goal in the first 45, then a +135 for Toronto is an interesting choice, though light on value.
Second and Both Half Bets
Second half options in terms of goal betting are much lower, largely because they are contingent on what is happening during the game. As you expected, game state matters in betting and second halves are entirely dependent on game state. If Seattle is up 3-0, the likelihood they push for a goal goes down but their success still would buoy it. If Seattle was down, they would push more and the likelihood of scoring goes up. Toronto would have the same thing. If Jozy Altidore started and got hurt and had to leave, that would impact projected goals, and so on.
Tl;dr, fewer options for the second half. You do have an interesting moneyline in the second half where Seattle is more likely to outscore in the second half than they were in the first, leading to the odds falling to +120. Less fun than the first half bet. Toronto’s line also falls though from +285 to +255. The draw line is what gets the benefit here jumping from +120 to +150 in the second half. The likelihood of a game ending 0-0 in the first is much higher than a team needing a goal late and tying the half altogether.
Are these good picks? Well Toronto is 2-2 overall for second halves win a 1-1-1 record for that. So, they are definitely all across the board. Do remember though, in that 2nd half loss, it meant extra time in DC where they won 5-1 with four goals in extra time. They can score late. Seattle is 4-2 overall going 2-0-1 (losing to Dallas in the 2nd half). Seattle is scoring fairly evenly between the halves and is still a good pick to win a second half even while trying to hold a lead, as they did against RSL and in LA.
The fun picks here are the both half bets, will a team score in both halves, which half has more total goals, etc. If you think both teams bag a goal in each half, so minimum 2-2 result, then open up your wallet and rake it in. A $20 bet brings in $230 total, a $210 profit. Even a $1 bet on that prop, yields a $10.50 profit.
Random Goal Based Bets
Quick note that is bad news, you can’t bet on who will score a goal. Normally you can but at least with the Oregon Sports Scoreboard app, you can’t get who will score lines until the game kickoff normally (or at least lineups announced). So if you want those, you need to find someone in an area that can place your bet during the game instead of pregame betting. For what it is worth, I would take Jordan Morris at any odds.
Remember when I said if you think Seattle will win by two you can do better than the spread pick, well here you go. Pick a result, in the multi-bet even, and you’ll have better odds. Remember at -1.5 for Seattle, it was +240. If you expect 3-1 as the result, you’ll get a +230. So not as good, but only a few dollars different on a $20 with a $66 payback, profit of $46 versus the profit of $48 on the spread pick. If you think 4-2 though is the more likely score, then your odds are great. Plus you get the benefit of 3-2 as an option too. The +850 bet is one of the best bets you’ll find in Seattle’s favor. $20 becomes $190, for a $170 profit.
Some fun odds for total goals per team are here as well, and yes expecting Toronto to score zero is the same odds as the team clean sheet but you can choose how you want the bet phrased. Oregon does not clarify if an own goal counts towards a teams total, but it does with most oddsmakers, so no difference between under 0.5 and a clean sheet. The +170 for a Stefan Frei and Co. clean sheet pays $54 on a $20 bet, for a $34 profit.
Other Random Fun Bets
The last two sets of best are fun, betting on when the first goal is scored and corners.
When do you think the first goal will be scored? Earliest goal these teams have scored in the playoffs, take a guess. Well did you guess yet? You better guess before looking at the next line....
Earliest scored is Toronto in the 14th. Then Seattle in the 18th. So the 11-20 minute range at +430 for the games first goal is a smart bet. You know the drill, $20 bet. Returns $106, a $86 profit.
Both teams have given up goals at a time earlier than their first, Seattle gave one up in the 17th, while Toronto gave one up to Atlanta in the 4th. So Toronto does start off a little unfocused at times, at least they did in front of a similarly raucous crowd in Atlanta (okay, nothing like the MLS Cup Final crowd, just like 50% of it). So is it possible Seattle follows the Atlanta scoring model, yes. But with the earliest goals for the teams and in two of the six matches total (that the teams have played) the 11-20 mark makes sense. If you like the risk that the game starts slow of that the keepers and posts win, then the later you go the better the payout.
You can also bet on if a goal will scored in X period, not the first just any goal, they have all the same odds, roughly, but they are all small odds with limited potential with the intervals being small.
Corners is the other fun piece of betting you can partake in, how many corners do you expect the teams to take? Well the line is 10.5 corners, so what do you expect to happen? I’ve stayed away from this since I can’t really get a god read on a game and its corners till the game is underway, but go for it. The only bet that pays well here is a draw in corners. If they hit the same amount of corners, then +600. The $20 bet pays $140 for a $120 profit.
So there you go, those are all the main betting odds and some fun ones for the MLS Cup Final. Seattle is favored and that is great but not enough to make them a bad bet. The scorelines off the best value and if you want to get into the nitty-gritty with some fun prop style bets on when the teams will score, or how much, then you can really make some money on this game. If nothing else, argue about what bets you WOULD make if you could.
If you can’t bet because you are not in a state that does, I am sorry. I understand as I am leaving enemy lines (Oregon) to come home for the game. I want to bet on the game state. I want to bet a Jordan Morris goal and more but until we can bet inside CenturyLink, we are out of luck. Remember bet responsibly and Go Sounders!!