MLS Fantasy Week 13: Double Game Week

Are you ready for some of the biggest scores you’ll see all year? I sure am. Week 13 is the first double-game week of the year, and it begins a stretch of similar weeks across the middle of the season. This is a great chance to make a move up the rankings (or down, though hopefully if you are reading this I am helping, not hurting).

As a reminder, double-game week scores are combined scores of both matches for a player (rather than just the higher of the two, as some other fantasy leagues handle them). So ideally you should target players with two good matchups. It also means players who just have one game are at a huge disadvantage. And you definitely want to prioritize players who are sure-fire starters and not likely to be rotated early. Can't score points if you aren't on the field.

Week 13 quick rankings

Goalkeepers

Andrew Rick (PHI 5.1m), Joe Willis (NSH 7.2m), Patrick Schulte (CLB 5.5m), Dayne St. Clair (MIN 9.1m), CJ Dos Santos (SD 7.4m)

Defenders

Kai Wagner (PHI 10.9m), Andy Najar (NSH 8.5m), Alex Freeman (ORL 8.6m), Paddy McNair/Luca Bombino (SD 8.9m/5.1m), Mohamed Farsi/Steven Moreira (CLB 8.5m/8.9m), Michael Boxall/Carlos Harvey (MIN 8.6m/4.7m)

Midfielders

Hany Mukhtar (NSH 11.5m), Anders Dreyer (SD 11.9m), Martin Ojeda (ORL 11.4m), Albert Rusnak (SEA 12.7m), Diego Luna (RSL 10.3m), Quinn Sullivan (PHI 10.5m), Evander (CIN 12.2m), Cristian Espinoza (SJE 12.3m), David Da Costa (POR 10.6m), Budget: Theo Corbeanu (TOR 6.6m)

Forwards

Leo Messi (MIA 13.6m), Chucky Lozano (SD 10.8m), Denis Bouanga (LAFC 10.0m), Cristian Arango (SJE 12.3m), Christian Benteke (DC 11.2m), Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN 9.1m), Brandon Vazquez (ATX 8.3m)

Week 13 schedule - DGW!

Rather than go through all the teams in great detail, I have it broken down here into four categories:

Single game:
VAN (@ATX)
DAL (vHOU)
NE (vSJE)
CHI (@CLT)

Two home games:
ATX (vATL, vVAN)
MTL (vCLB, vTOR)
NSH (vNYR, vDCU)
SD (vCOL, vSKC)

Split games:
ATL (@ATX, vPHI)
CLT (@ORL, vCHI)
COL (@SD, vRSL)
CLB (@MTL, vCIN)
DCU (vNYC, @NSH)
MIA (@SJE, vORL)
LAG (@PHI, vLAFC)
LAFC (vSEA, @LAG)
MIN (@HOU, vSTL)
NYC (@DCU, vNYR)
ORL (vCLT, @MIA)
PHI (vLAG, @ATL)
POR (@RSL, vSEA)
RSL (vPOR, @COL)
SJE (vMIA, @NE)
STL (vSKC, @MIN)
TOR (vCIN, @MTL)

Two away games:
CIN (@TOR, @CLB)
NYR (@NSH, @NYC)
SEA (@LAFC, @POR)
SKC (@STL, @SD)

Timing of games is less important this week, though you will want to do your best to make sure your players are starting on Wednesday at least. After that it is out of our hands (mostly – I'll get to that later).

There are a few teams to highlight. The four double-home teams are interesting. Austin has a good matchup against Atlanta, but I don't really consider a home game against a rested Vancouver as a good thing. Also, Austin is looking at temperatures of upper 90's to low 100's Fahrenheit tonight and through the weekend. Montreal got their first win last week but I am unconvinced this is a turnaround point. Columbus is very tough and a rivalry match against Toronto will also be intense (they played a 2-2 draw which went to penalties in the Canadian Championship a couple of weeks ago).

Nashville and San Diego have great schedules and I am taking at least two players from both those teams.

The Galaxy play Philadelphia and LAFC, and are missing Pec and Paintsil at least for Wednesday, so grabbing guys from both those opposing squads is a great idea, although I am not enamored with any of the Philadelphia options. Speaking of which, LAFC have essentially a home/home schedule by just traveling to Carson, CA, though their other game against Seattle will be one of their toughest home fixtures of the year.

There are a few other teams whose away match also is a relatively short trip to a rival: Orlando at Miami, RSL at Colorado, and Toronto at Montreal.

I like Minnesota's schedule; Houston was not able to compete with LAFC or Seattle (though hampered by a rough and unlucky red card) and home against STL is a very very good chance for a Minnesota clean sheet.

Cincinnati and Seattle have relatively tough schedules, but both teams are good enough to get results in their away matches, so I wouldn't discount them too heavily.

Thoughts and Players

Defenses

Nashville – Two very winnable home matches against the Red Bulls and DC. Walker Zimmerman will sadly likely still be out due to a concussion, and they have not kept a clean sheet in MLS in seven weeks. However, Andy Najar (8.5m) has made up for that as a key part of Nashville torching the Fire (three assists and 12 points) and eight bonus points over the past three weeks.

San Diego – Another home/home team. They did lose to Colorado on the road, 3-2, but San Diego learned some lessons from their recent skid and seem to be back on track. They shut out Dallas and the only goal they surrendered to St. Louis was a 91st minute consolation prize. For this team take Paddy McNair (8.9m) for consistent minutes or Luca Bombino (5.1m) for a much cheaper option with high attacking upside.

Philadelphia – Home to the Galaxy and away to Atlanta is about as good a pair of matchups as you can hope for on a split schedule. Philadelphia also has the second-best GA and best xGA in the East. Kai Wagner (10.9m) has had his bonus points dry up but is still the most explosive option you can find on this defense. Note that Andre Blake is out for Wednesday, so you can run Andrew Rick (5.1m) as a cheap early option and keep him if he gets a clean sheet or pivot to a later option (Dos Santos?) if he does not. Just know that Blake could be back for the weekend, so this carries some risk.

Columbus – They start on the road at Montreal, but this should be a matchup Nancy's boys can handle. Then they are home against Cincinnati, who have scored a decent number of goals this year but are overperforming their advanced stats. This would be a bet on the early match for Patrick Schulte (5.5m) in net with the ability to pivot to a later keeper. For individual defenders I like Steven Moreira (8.9m) just a smidge more than Mohamed Farsi (8.5m).

Minnesota – As noted above, at Houston and home versus St. Louis is a nice set of games. Minnesota just had no trouble fending off Miami (minus a casual wonderstrike by Messi) so I am confident they are capable of a double CS this week. I think you probably avoid Bongi, as he may trade minutes with Gressel, so I suppose you can go for Michael Boxall (8.6m) or roll the dice on Carlos Harvey (4.7m) as he seems to be back to a 90-minute player.

Alex Freeman (ORL 8.6m) – This is not a bet on the Orlando defense, which has been strong but has to visit Miami. Instead, it's a bet on a great young attacking player who happens to get credit for clean sheets. He let me down last week but was very close to multiple goal contributions. His 73 points on the year is 2nd best for defenders and well clear of 3rd place at 63 points. He'll get a lot of opportunities to contribute this week.

Midfielders

Hany Mukhtar (NSH 11.5m) – By now we all know what he is capable of. Two home games with reasonable matchups mean he should be on everyone's shortlist.

Anders Dreyer (SD 11.9m) – After a brief lull SD has figured out how to use Dreyer alongside Lozano. He should be a great pick this week with two home matches.

Martin Ojeda (ORL 11.4m) – I guess he is back? Started once again and he went crazy against New England. This week it is San Jose and Miami. He should prove very popular for good reason.

Albert Rusnak (SEA 12.7m) – To be clear, I don't expect Rusnak to start tonight. But he's still here anyway. I think Schmetzer gives him 45 against LAFC and then he goes 75+ against Portland. That’s plenty of time to make an impact and I am especially interested in those Portland minutes for an always intense Cascadia Cup clash.

Diego Luna (RSL 10.3m) – I cannot keep ignoring him. He's now scored in three straight games and has four goals in that span, all of them away matches. Home to Portland and a short(ish) trip to Colorado should be a favorable week for him.

Quinn Sullivan (PHI 10.5m) – He's fallen off some as Philadelphia spread around the attacking duties, but he's still got a solid floor and very good matchups this week.

Evander (CIN 12.2m) – I warned last week he was capable of defying haters advanced stats, so of course he proved me right and scored a goal on 0.2 xG, tacking on an assist and some great bonus points. This week the matchups are not good with two away matches, but elite players still perform wherever they are.

Cristian Espinoza (SJE 12.3m) – Perhaps not his ideal week, facing Miami and then going completely across the country to New England, but again he's the kind of elite player who can perform despite the matchups.

David Da Costa (POR 10.6m) – I just want to note that Seattle has been struggling a lot with defending set pieces and has a penchant for fouls in the defensive third. Da Costa will get some great chances against Seattle and will (theoretically) have plenty of work against RSL.

Budget: Theo Corbeanu (TOR 6.6m) – The 22-year-old Canadian has experience in the Championship and La Liga and is quickly making a name for himself with Toronto. He’s quietly been the second-best attacker for Toronto (though that doesn't count for a ton). These aren’t the best matchups, but the Canadian rivalry games can get intense with plenty of goals.

Forwards

Leo Messi (MIA 13.6m) – Miami is in a bit of a spiral but Messi still has his moments. Now that Suarez is no longer scoring goals at an insane rate, it may be better for the team that Messi does not have to make space for him while he's injured. Maybe. I do like his matchups this week, even if he isn't starting both games.

Chucky Lozano (SD 10.8m) – Two home matches and an offense that has rekindled its fire. Not his week last week, but Colorado and SKC visiting should find him plenty of chances in front of net.

Denis Bouanga (LAFC 10.0m) – Historically, Bouanga has killed Seattle with his deadly counters. But Seattle's defense this year is one of the two or three best in the league. That means you'd be mostly taking Bouanga for his game at the Galaxy, a defense that has been capable of feeding opposing attackers for months. That's good enough for me.

Cristian Arango (SJE 12.3m) – Eight goals on the year, he's part of the four-way tie for Golden Boot and is the only one of the group that is virtually guaranteed two starts, since Brian White and Hugo Cuypers only have single matches and Tai Baribo has had his minutes diminished. Perhaps not ideal matchups, but SJ's offense can score multiple goals on anyone.

Christian Benteke (DC 11.2m) – A manageable home game against NYC missing possibly their best player, and then a match at Nashville that is an opportunity for a shootout. DC's offense lives or dies by Benteke, and his involvement this year has given him an average of two BPs per game. Great floor and as high a ceiling as anyone.

Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (MIN 9.1m) – Yeboah is still getting healthy for Minnesota, so Oluwaseyi will continue to lead the line and they have shown they are perfectly capable of playing together. Two very winnable matchups for Minnesota gives him a great chance at goals.

Brandon Vazquez (ATX 8.3m) – He's top 10 in xG and npxG, it's just that his three goals is less than half his 6.7 xG. That’s a rough way to start the year. But Vazquez is more than proven in MLS and Liga MX, so his actual production should close the gap with his expected production. With two home games this week, he has high potential as a differential and somewhat a budget option.

Captain considerations

Leo Messi – His averages aren't off the charts this year so I would not recommend the captaincy if he is not starting against San Jose, but he's always a threat and likely the player you'll most regret passing on if/when he goes off.

Anders Dreyer/Chucky Lozano – Cushy schedule at home, top players. I lean toward Dreyer, but Lozano has been slightly better in fantasy the past few weeks.

Hany Mukhtar – Tasty schedule at home, former (and future?) MVP. 12 point average his last three weeks.

Denis Bouanga – Solely here for the Galaxy matchup, which by itself may be all you need.

Double-Game week formation advice

As promised, let's talk a bit about formations. Since we have two games to worry about, you simply want your best players out there and ready to compete. The recommended formation is 5-4-1 or 5-3-2, with two scrub defenders. This gives you the three minimum starting defenders and then the scrub defenders will be swapped for the two best attackers on the bench.

Personally, I like my scrubs to be single-game players from the weekend, so if something extra dramatic happens with my bench (red cards or injury, primarily) I can swap one or both the scrubs for single-game weekend players. You would need to hold a bit of salary in reserve, and this is just an emergency insurance method, but it could get you out of a pickle. For this, Malachi Molina (DAL 4.0) is one safe scrub (off-roster player) and I'm going with Enzo Newman (DAL 4.0) as my second (he hasn't made the bench since March, though I will double-check on the weekend).

As for keepers, two options are (a) pick an early keeper for your bench and plan for a later keeper to start if your bench option fails their first CS chance, or (b) put a mid/late game keeper on the bench and start a weekend scrub to swap if your bench keeper gets injured/red carded. This could look like Rick (PHI) or Schulte (CLB) on the bench playing at 4:30 pm Pacific and then CJ Dos Santos (SD) at 7:30 pm, with a plan to swap to a scrub keeper if your early play gets a CS. Or, if you want to start with Stuver (ATX) at 6:00 pm or even one of the 7:30 pm keepers you can put a scrub keeper like Max Anchor (VAN) in the top slot and (assuming you have the budget) be ready to swap to a weekend-only keeper if something dramatic happens.

Alternatively, you can try the "squeeze play" and run St. Clair (MIN) or Willis (NSH) at 5:30 pm, ready to swap to a 7:30 pm keeper once they concede with a scrub up top. Just know that the final whistle in those games will come after the 7:30 pm rosters lock, so put in a weekend scrub so you can potentially get out of a rough spot if your bench pick does something terrible in the final few overlapping minutes of the 5:30 pm games.

The fun part is, there is much less roster watching to engage in on the weekend, so you can just enjoy your teams out there racking up the points! Hopefully. And maybe not too many so I can get back into the top ranks? Thanks for your consideration.