MLS Fantasy Week 15: Another DGW another dollar

Another big double-game week is about to kick off, and that means huge points are in order for those who choose wisely. This week has some good home options and some good but risky road teams I am eyeing. As always, listen to your gut and make sure you are happy with your calls at the end of the week. Whether that is listening to the wisdom of the crowds, following a hunch, or finding an angle others are overlooking, going with your own plan will keep you the sanest in the long run.

DGW rundown:

Double Home: SEA, MIA, LAG, CIN, NYRB, TOR
Split: ATL, ATX, CLB, DAL, DC, HOU, MON, NSH, NYC, ORL, SD
Double Away: CLT, MIN, NER, PHI, RSL, SJ
Single: CHI, COL, SKC, POR, STL, VAN
Bye: LAFC

Week 15 Quick Rankings

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake (PHI 7.9m), Carlos Coronel (NYRB 8.4m), Aljaz Ivacic (NER 8.6m), Stefan Frei (SEA 7.4m)

Defenders

Kai Wagner (PHI 11.4m), Ilay Feingold (NER 8.3m), Nouhou (SEA 7.8m), Noah Elie (NYRB 8.7m), Alex Freeman (ORL 9.6m)

Midfielders

Albert Rusnak (SEA 13.6m), Evander (CIN 13.1m), Anders Dreyer (SD 12.9m), Cristian Espinoza (SJ 12.8m), Carles Gil (NE 12.6m), Hany Mukhtar (NSH 12.5m), Emil Forsberg (NYRB 10.1m), Marco Reus (LAG 9.3m), Budget: Eduard Atuesta (ORL 7.1m)

Forwards

Leo Messi (MIA 13.3m), Diego Rossi (CLB 12.4m), Alonso Martinez (NYC 11.4m), Luis Muriel (ORL 11.2m), Sam Surridge (NSH 11.0m), Tai Baribo (PHI 9.8m), Josef Martinez (SJ 9.2m), Budget: Tadeo Allende (MIA 6.5m)

Week 15 teams to highlight

Rather than going through each matchup in detail, likely running this column well over 5k words, I'm going to highlight some teams with interesting schedules. Remember – with double game weeks, home teams are always preferred as they are inherently at an advantage and their players are less likely to rotate. Be extra careful with players who start at home but have a road game on the weekend.

Cincinnati – Home against Dallas and DC. Lucho is rested and is likely coming for revenge, but he has struggled finding anything against most other teams. Meanwhile, Benteke is out for DC’s midweek match and thus he does not seem likely to play significant, if any, minutes on Saturday. On the other hand, as Matt Doyle footnoted in his Power Rankings this week, Cincy's underlying numbers are scary. Their expected goal differential is very bad (-5.7), second-worst in the East. Largely this is due to poor defending – their 25.1 expected goals against is also second-worst in the East and fifth-worst in the league. They are out ahead of their xGA and slightly ahead of their xG and so find themselves second place in the East. But if Evander and Denkey slow even a bit and their defense regresses towards those underlying numbers, they will very quickly find themselves fighting instead for the 6th–9th playoff spots.

Miami – This is a team whose underlying numbers have caught up to them. After historically outperforming various metrics last year, due in no small part to Messi and Suarez being superstars, they have been dragged back to the mud this year. Three goals allowed in each of their last four games tells the story. They clawed their way to draws in two of those matches but it has not been pretty. They get Montreal midweek and the Crew on the weekend. I can see a win and a tie here, but, like with Cincinnati, I am staying away from that defense.

New York Red Bulls – They host Charlotte (-7 GD on the road) and Atlanta (-9 GD on the road). Charlotte has allowed 14 goals in 7 road matches, Atlanta 13 in 6. I think there are NY goals here and maybe a shutout or two to boot.

Toronto – Just one win at home in eight matches. Yikes. And missing Bernardeschi midweek due to yellow card accumulation. Toronto is capable of wins when they put it together, but it seems likely to be a tough midweek against Philadelphia and maybe more of an even match with Charlotte visiting on Saturday. As nice as it might be to have two home matches in this stretch, I am skipping Toronto this round.

Seattle – Two big Western Conference clashes, hosting San Diego and Minnesota, who are second and third in the West, respectively. These will not be easy matches and on top of that, for fantasy purposes, Seattle has rotated aggressively this year, relying on their depth as core players have their minutes managed. Of course, San Diego has been beatable on the road and Minnesota has only ever won once against Seattle. I think Seattle are looking at a 4-6 point week, it will just be tricky to find the right players that score big points in both matches.

Galaxy – The last double-home team, I think the Galaxy are in for a win, finally, this week. They host San Jose in what is always an explosive rivalry match and then have the sad RSL on Saturday. Marco Reus has finally been delivering and if their defense can stop making critical errors for one match, I can easily see them also coming out of this week with 4-6 points. They drew LAFC on the road and held SD to a tie until a last gasp 95th minute winner for the home side, and I think they can do it a little better this week.

New England – Yes, sure, they have two road games. But the first is against Benteke-less DC and then they face one-win, eight-point Montreal. I think you can make a good case for NE on defense and offense.

San Jose – Another double-away team, they are at the aforementioned Galaxy and at St. Louis on Saturday. Though I think the Galaxy may be turning the corner, finally, though they certainly have not done so yet. And they have allowed 35 goals, eight worse than anyone else. And St. Louis just fired their manager. These are winnable road games for San Jose and the kind they will need to win to show they are for real.

Orlando – At Atlanta and then home against Chicago is likely a week with a lot of goals. Chicago will be on full rest, but this is about as good of a non-double-home schedule as we can find.

Columbus – The Crew get Nashville at home and then are at Miami. A very difficult week if they get the best versions of those teams. But Miami is in a tailspin and Nashville are merely an average MLS team on the road (-3 road GD, -1.4 road xGD). The Crew could very easily end up back on top of the East after this weekend. But if you are taking a Crew player, make sure to check their absences – some key guys (Moreira and Farsi, in particular) are injured.

Philadelphia – Another double-away team, but they are at Toronto and at Dallas. That’s a decent schedule for the team on top of the East, especially when they get to dodge Bernardeschi, probably the best player on either of their opponents this week.

Thoughts and Players

Defenses

New England – Two winnable road games. Clean sheets in five of their last seven league games. They have fallen off their hot streak, allowing three goals at Orlando and at Kansas City, but the DC and Montreal attacks are not really in the same ballpark. The best defender option is probably Ilay Feingold (8.3m).

Philadelphia – Clean sheets have been hard to come by lately, but their underlying numbers are good and the teams they are playing are not. Even if (when?) Philadelphia concede, Kai Wagner (11.4m) comes with attacking bonuses. Last week he had an assist and four attacking bonus points. After a lull, he's had at least two bonus points in each of his last three matches. He's worth the premium.

Seattle – The Sounders were carved up by San Diego on the road, but Seattle is usually able to impose their will at home and shape the game with the kind of possession they want. And, well, Seattle is +21 GD all-time against Minnesota, with 13 wins in 16 games. For whatever reason, Seattle has had Minnesota's number over the years, including two wins last year. I think Seattle is good for at least one clean sheet this week. As far as who to pick... I think it is a Nouhou (7.8m) week. I would not be surprised to see KKR start for Alex Roldan on the weekend and with Jackson Ragen available, it's likely that one of Kim Kee-Hee or Jon Bell comes off the bench against Minnesota.

New York Red Bulls – Two very winnable games. New York does not get clean sheets as often as some other teams, but they do have six on the year. If you want a double home team for defense this week besides Seattle, I think these guys are your next best option. Based purely on minutes, the defender to take here would be Noah Elie (8.7m), who "rested" on the weekend from yellow card accumulation.

Alex Freeman (ORL 9.6m) – A mainstay of this section recently, his play has warranted attention and has gotten him a call to the USMNT. His attacking has not paid dividends lately, but it is only a matter of time. His npxG+xAG/90 is fourth on the team of players with 1,000 minutes.

Midfielders

Albert Rusnak (SEA 13.6m) – His consistent excellence has now made him the most expensive fantasy player in the game, the first player to pass Messi in quite some time, I believe. He's a lock, even if he doesn't start both matches.

Evander (CIN 13.1m) – Even though his only goal contribution last week was an assist, he was dealing, racking up seven bonus points (7!) from key plays and shots. Two goodie home matches should hopefully keep him in high gear. But I've said it before – some of his underlying numbers are concerning and he has times when he disappears. His median score over the past seven weeks is 6 points, with three outbursts of 12, 14, 15 and three duds with 1, 3, 4. So he could easily have 25+ pts or maybe 7. Who knows.

Anders Dreyer (SD 12.9m) – He keeps finding killer moments and delivering for SD. Fairly consistent bonus points. Seattle and Austin are tougher defenses, but he's capable.

Cristian Espinoza (SJ 12.8m) – He let me down last week but San Jose was scoring. More often than not, he's in the thick of it. Two great opportunities this week against LAG and STL.

Carles Gil (NE 12.6m) – Two road games and some concerning underlying numbers, but he has been huge for New England since they got back to winning.

Hany Mukhtar (NSH 12.5m) – At Columbus and home versus a good NYCFC is a tough week, but he has been consistently strong.

Emil Forsberg (NYRB 10.1m) – Very low floor (scored 2 points in three of the last five matches) but a ceiling as high as anyone. I like his matchups this week and think he could be in for a big one.

Marco Reus (LAG 9.3m) – I’m not sure if he counts as a bargain or not, but his three-week average is 9.67 which I think is highest for active midfielders right now? He should be good for the minutes and San Jose and RSL visiting the Galaxy are not as good of defenses as LAFC, SD or Philadelphia, where he had his recent work. May be too little too late for the Galaxy's season, but we can take his fantasy points while they come.

Budget: Eduard Atuesta (ORL 7.1m) – He's a big upgrade for Orlando when healthy. He's got decent fantasy scores as well: his last five starts he's scored 7, 5, 2, 7, 8, an average of about 6 points. He has two assists in that span and 13 BPs. I am not sure whether he will get two full games, which is my only hesitation, but he went 90 against the Timbers so he may be ready for it.

Forwards

Leo Messi (MIA 13.3m) – Two home games for the GOAT. Easy pick.

Diego Rossi (CLB 12.4m) – Home versus Nashville and away to Miami is a very reasonable schedule. Perhaps not as explosive as other options, but he has a high floor. He did rotate last DGW, but that was away at Montreal and I don't think he sits this week given the fixtures.

Alonso Martinez (NYC 11.4m) – His last six scores: 10, 3, 4, 4, 13, 10. I would not be surprised to see a similar split this week with another double-digit match and maybe one disappointment. Boom or bust option that I do like for a high score.

Luis Muriel (ORL 11.2m) – Big opportunity this week against some weak defenses (ATL away and CHI home). He has seemingly been reduced to a 70-ish minute player so that’s something to keep in mind, but he only needed 70 minutes to score in two of the last three.

Sam Surridge (NSH 11.0m) – Huge two goals against Toronto last week gave Nashville the win. Eight goals on the year, but he has only scored in four games. Columbus is missing some important defenders for Surridge's first match this week and Nashville have been dominant at home. He did sit out a half in Nashville's last DGW where he only had 6 points for the week, so this might be a risky play, but he has demonstrated a very high ceiling this year.

Tai Baribo (PHI 9.8m) – The first three weeks of the year he averaged 12+ points. Weeks 4-11 he averaged 2.7 points. The last four weeks? 10.75 point average. During the good seven weeks he scored 12 goals. The bad stretch of seven games played he had one. I think his "true" form is somewhere in the middle – his expected goals are good but just in the top five rather than otherworldly and he's now the league leader in G/npG minus xG/npxG, running about five goals ahead of his underlying numbers. But that kind of actual production is impossible to ignore.

Josef Martinez (SJ 9.2m) – He's now second in the league in npxG/90 (just 0.01 behind Danny Musovski) and fourth in overall npxG. Arango is out again so Martinez will again be a top option this week against the hapless Galaxy and dreadful St. Louis. Preston Judd had a brace off the bench last week but I don't think that should put you off Martinez.

Budget: Tadeo Allende (MIA 6.5m) – Scored in two of his last three games and started both matches in Miami's last DGW. He's become a reliable third option in their attack behind Messi and Suarez, and Suarez is on YCW. I think the price here accurately reflects the risk, but his upside is as high as anyone on this offense.

Captain considerations

Leo Messi – Picking against him is a choice you can make. I wouldn't recommend it though.

Albert Rusnak – I think he likely starts both matches, but since his minutes are at risk given Seattle's rotation this year, he's not as strong a Messi alternative as he might otherwise be.

Evander – As concerning as his underlying numbers can be, the stats people love to let him rack up the bonus points. A top choice with two games at home.

Marco Reus – Very high-risk differential captain, but he has great matchups and has been very sharp the last few games. Last year I remember Rusnak coming back from injury and needing around a month to actually get into form, then he was one of the best in the league. I am not sure Reus is quite at that level, but he may have turned a corner after that embarrassing loss at NYRB. The Galaxy are extremely desperate for a win and Reus is their best bet to carry them there until Puig is back.

Yellow Card Warnings

You can check the Disciplinary Summary yourself, but before I depart I just wanted to highlight a handful of popular fantasy players who might end up on just a single-game week if they take a yellow card tonight:

• Griffin Dorsey (HOU)
• Diego Luna (RSL)
• Luis Suarez (MIA)
• Kevin Denkey (CIN)