MLS Fantasy Week 16: Slim pickings
Not only are there only five games to choose from this week, but we also now have news that one of the matches might not even be played because the Whitecaps are sad and ashamed seriously ill after their humiliating road loss to the newly crowned Concacaf Champions, Cruz Azul. Related? Maybe, maybe not. Just a little weird that it happened two years in a row, but international travel is always a health risk. We will be eagerly awaiting news of whether MLS chooses to postpone the match (such decisions are at the league office's "sole and absolute discretion").
On top of that helpful news, there are a variety of players missing due to national team call ups. Those are not quite as impactful for most of the teams playing this weekend, but there are key pieces missing, especially for the aforementioned Whitecaps. With some players also still missing to injury, the week is looking quite thin. The thinnest it will be all year. I think that means a lot of teams will look very similar with so few clearly good options, it will be those last few marginal players you speculate on that will make or break you week. Key spots will be who is your captain, who is your third forward, whether you find that golden unexpected midfielder of the week, and how your defense mix fares.
Week 16 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Niko Hansen (COL - not in game yet, but should be added), James Pantemis/Trey Muse (POR 8.9m/4.5m, unclear if Pantemis is healthy enough to start), Hugo Lloris (LAFC 6.8m), Stefan Frei (SEA 7.9m)
Defenders
Andreas Maxso (COL 7.0m), Juan Mosquera (POR 7.0m), Aaron Long (LAFC 7.8m), Jackson Ragen (SEA 6.9m) – If you want another pick grab a double up on your favorite defense or get Andrew Gutman (CHI 6.5m).
Midfielders
Albert Rusnak (SEA 13.7m), Djordje Mihailovic (COL 12.0m), David Da Costa (POR 10.9m), Philip Zinckernagel (CHI 10.9m), Marky Delgado (LAFC 8.8m), Daniel Salloi (SKC 9.0m), Cristian Roldan (SEA 8.9m), Gabriel Pirani (DC 6.5m)
Forwards
Hugo Cuypers (CHI 12.0m), Denis Bouanga (LAFC 11.0m), Dejan Joveljic (SKC 10.2m), Felipe Mora/Kevin Kelsy (POR 8.2m/6.8m), Rafael Navarro (COL 9.5m), Jesus Ferreira (SEA 7.2m)
Week 16 schedule
Saturday has just two matches, 4:30 pm Pacific has DC hosting Chicago and 6:30 pm has Colorado against Austin. The first match has two weak teams and the second match has two mediocre teams. Of these, Colorado is the only one in playoff position (8th in West).
Christian Benteke is still out, but DC is coming off a road win over Cincinnati. On the other side, Chicago have won three of their last four matches, and their one loss in that span had Brian Gutierrez sent off in the 31st minute for a wild thrown elbow. It is tough to call a winner here, as both teams have less than average defenses. You probably still want to buy into Chicago's strong offense and maybe some of DC's (if you can settle on the best of a mediocre bunch).
Colorado against Austin should prove a little more defensive minded. The teams have scored/allowed a combined total of 71 goals (DC/Chicago? 101). Colorado and Austin have middling defenses and weak offenses. Up until Austin's sad 5-1 loss to the Whitecaps they had not allowed multiple goals in a match. They have done so four times since and their only clean sheets were against the Galaxy and, funny enough, against the Whitecaps. And Austin has only scored multiple goals in a league game once, way back on March 23rd. Brandon Vasquez has lost his finishing touch (4 goals on 8.6 xG) and no one else has multiple goals. High-priced additions Myrto Uzuni and Osman Bukari have not transformed the team. That's all to say that Colorado is likely your best bet for a CS from Saturday. Colorado can score, but they really need Rafael Navarro and Djordje Mihailovic to be healthy and on top of their game to be dangerous. Darren Yapi may be getting there, but he's still just 20 and not reliable. If Djordje is cleared to play I think he's a great option and Navarro is in the mix for your third forward option.
Sunday has three games – Portland vs. St. Louis at 4:00 pm and then LAFC vs. Kansas City and Vancouver hosting Seattle at 6:00 pm. Portland is clearly a better team than St. Louis, though it remains to be seen what new St. Louis manager David Critchley can get out of this squad. LAFC is also a clearly better team than SKC, but SKC has been on a reasonable run of form since Peter Vermes was fired: four wins, three draws, three losses. And while Vancouver has been a superior team to Seattle this year, their international absences and illnesses suggests the squad they will field on Sunday will be subpar. So key players from Portland, LAFC and Seattle will likely be who you want to focus on, with some wild cards from the other teams if you get an itch.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Colorado – See above for Austin's attacking ineptitude. To top it off, they are missing Uzuni to international duty. Totally reasonable to have one or two Colorado defenders on your bench to see how they do Saturday night. None of the defenders score all that different from the others, so pick whichever you vibe with best. If I had to pick, Andreas Maxso (7.0m) is the most guaranteed for minutes. NOTE: Steffen is out – he was called up then sent home with an injury. The backup that Colorado has actually been using, Niko Hansen, is not in the MLS fantasy as of writing. Check back on Saturday to see if he is, if you want him.
Portland – Austin have scored the fewest goals on the league, and St. Louis has scored the third-fewest. Portland's defense is average, but they do have five clean sheets. Note that Finn Surman and Maxim Crepeau have been called up and James Pantemis has been injured, so check in on lineups. I think the pick on defense is Juan Mosquera (7.0m) and maybe Jimer Fory if he's starting.
LAFC – Kansas City has only been shut out in four matches, so this is a risk, but it's a reasonable bet that LAFC's defense can handle them (and it's not like you have a lot of options this week). I think I like Aaron Long (7.8m) best for his reliable passing bonuses. Hollingshead would be the choice if you are chasing higher risk players as he's goal dangerous but with inconsistent minutes and bonus points.
Seattle – Seattle has a medium defense and is missing two or three CBs, but should still have a much stronger XI overall than Vancouver. I mean, this is the list of Vancouver's call-ups: S. Adekugbe, A. Ahmed, S. Berhalter, G. Bovalina, A. Cubas, T. Johnson, J. Nelson, P. Vite, B. White. That's six of their starters from the CCC final plus some key backups. I know Vancouver sent a rotated side up against Minnesota and crushed them, but all the stars are aligning against Vancouver this week. For Seattle take Jackson Ragen (6.9m) as he is consistently getting two BPs from passing every match he goes 90 and he's almost going to be required to do so this week.
Midfielders
Albert Rusnak (SEA 13.7m) – The best midfield option many normal weeks, this week is no exception against the Whitecaps missing their most important players.
Djordje Mihailovic (COL 12.0m) – Totally dependent on Djordje being healthy enough to start, his talent is too great to skip this week given the options.
David Da Costa (POR 10.9m) – He's not the talent that Evander was, but he's been connecting and is now the highest point scorer with the highest average points for Portland's mids. Antony has cooled and Santiago Moreno is a hit-and-miss option. All three are pretty close, so one way to distinguish yourself this week would be to pick the correct option of these three (assuming at least one has a great week).
Philip Zinckernagel (CHI 10.9m) – He's emerged as the option in Chicago's midfield for real life and fantasy purposes. Gutierrez might go off on occasional weeks, but he followed up a 19 point performance in week 13 with a 31st minute red card in week 14. Hence Zinckernagel. He's scored in the last three games and added a pair of assists at Orlando.
Marky Delgado (LAFC 8.8m) – I said there were slim pickings. Delgado has averaged 4.43 fantasy points per game, which is weighed down by various substitute appearances. He's had at least five points in each start since Week 10.
Daniel Salloi (SKC 9.0m) – He's the most likely for points in the SKC midfield, if you think SKC gets their obligatory goal against LAFC. High ceiling if they can get LAFC disoriented.
Cristian Roldan (SEA 8.9m) – The midfield metronome, he gets good passing bonus points along with a handful of BPs from other categories. What holds him back is he does not get into the box very much these days, so he has just a goal and assist on the year. In a weak week, he's viable just to get some solid points.
Gabriel Pirani (DC 6.5m) – He’s had some injury struggles this year but just went 60 minutes at Cincinnati last weekend and earned a goal and assist, after scoring a goal off the bench against New England midweek. Unclear whether he is a changed man after rehab and an exciting attacking asset or if his form earlier in the season holds (3.7 ppg average weeks 1 to 7). Also, not sure if he is starting and does not seem likely for 90 minutes. And a bit of points-chasing, but this is a reasonable week for it.
Forwards
Leo Messi Hugo Cuypers (CHI 12.0m) – Basically the Messi of this week, Cuypers has 10 goals (tied with Messi! see?) and is a full two goals ahead of second place in npxG (and Messi in third!) and second in npxG/90 (ahead of Messi in fourth! It all ties together). DC's defense is not to be feared and Chicago have been strong on the road. Almost everyone will have him for good reason.
Denis Bouanga (LAFC 11.0m) – Fresh off delivering LAFC's Club World Cup qualification windfall in extra time, Bouanga is actually not called up for this window so should be free to use SKC as a CWC tune-up. Counting the CWC play-in, he's scored eight goals in his last nine matches. And he's had at least eight shots on target in four of those games and if it's that kind of match he's ending up with at least five BPs.
Dejan Joveljic (SKC 10.2m) – Four goals in his last three starts. He's highly goal-dependent, but so few forwards aren't. If you think SKC scores against LAFC, he's a top tier option this week.
Felipe Mora/Kevin Kelsy (POR 8.2m/6.8m) – Whichever of these guys starts against St. Louis is a totally reasonable play. Their year-long averages are not great, but they both have the talent to come through against a lesser opponent.
Rafael Navarro (COL 9.5m) – I don't think he's healthy, but if he is he's a top 5 pick this week. If he is in the starting lineup come Saturday, well, there are worse options.
Jesus Ferreira (SEA 7.2m) – His first Sounders goal under his belt, he missed the Minnesota game to attend the birth of his child. He should be starting again this week and could take advantage of Vancouver's weakened side (though Takaoka and three starting defenders are staying put). Temper hopes for significant minutes as Jordan Morris is healthy and should get minutes as he returns to form, plus Musovski will be deployed off the bench. Still though, I think he has a high ceiling this week (and a dirt-low floor).
Captain considerations
Albert Rusnak – Capable of high scores on normal weeks, this week he is facing a sick team missing many of its best players. Maybe not exactly analogous, but last year when gifted a match where Columbus had a field player in goal he went and scored a hat trick. I'm not saying you should expect something like that, but he has a sky-high ceiling and can dominate games like this.
Denis Bouanga – A consistent high performer, it did take him until extra time against Club America to get his game-winning goal, but he has been on a very strong run of form in league play. Goals in six of his last eight matches and the games he didn't score he still earned 10 and 7 fantasy points. Pretty close between Rusnak and Bouanga for the captain spot.
Hugo Cuypers – His expected goals numbers far outpace everyone and he's delivering on what's expected. DC's home defense is reasonable, but he's been getting it done against better competition. High ceiling player, though.
Club World Cup Fantasy
There's a fun FIFA Club World Cup Fantasy game out there that you can join today. The game will be familiar: pick 15 players for each week and get 11 scores from a budget of 100m. I set up a league you can join now through this link: https://play.fifa.com/fantasy/join-league/Q5TPV370 or with the league code you see there: Q5TPV370. Might be fun to get some Rusnak points against some of the soccer giants, or get some Botafogo/Atletico Madrid/PSG shares so you might have something to enjoy if the Sounders falter.
There are some rules quirks like being able to switch players in or out of the lineup as the matchdays progress and removing the captain’s armband after a player plays if they do poorly. It could be fun to see how we do and maybe use it as an excuse to learn some more about the visiting teams.