When expectations and reality collide

SEATTLE – When the Seattle Sounders kicked off against Botafogo RJ on Sunday night it was a moment at least three years in the making, although the argument could be made that the club had been working towards that whistle since the start of their MLS era. The path to Seattle hosting a Brazilian champion, the reigning South American title-holder, as they embark on a Club World Cup campaign that will also see them face Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain in front of their home fans has been winding and uneven, a route that has seen expectations for the tournament itself and the Sounders’ place in it range from excitement and optimism to doom and gloom.

Amidst national turmoil as ICE raids disrupt communities and demonstrations and protests bring the issues that inspired them to front of mind, despite an abysmal marketing strategy and ticket pricing fiascos from FIFA for this tournament, to say nothing of dropping Sounders attendance, Sunday’s match at Lumen Field had an announced attendance of 30,151 that looked to be reflective of the actual butts-in-seats count and featured an atmosphere that was livelier and louder than many expected.

With Travis Thompson performing in Occidental Park ahead of the match and beautiful weather, the vibe around the stadium ahead of kickoff was energetic. After high initial expectations upon announcement and a precipitous drop over the months following the release of tickets to the public, the reality nestled somewhere in the middle. Atleti and PSG may have more global appeal, but with Botafogo being Seattle’s most beatable opponent and odd kickoff times for the other two matches, it seems like last night’s attendance and atmosphere will be the best the Sounders will get during this tournament.

Expectations on the field have seen a similar run of ups and downs. During preseason and at the start of their Concacaf Champions Cup run, the Sounders looked to have reloaded and taken a step forward, but injuries to Paul Arriola and Jordan Morris served as serious setbacks. Adding Ryan Kent to the mix provided a jolt of energy as Seattle looked resurgent as recently as a few weeks ago, but injuries kept piling up and the team went from flying to grinding to guttering out against Minnesota United and the Vancouver Whitecaps during the run up to the CWC.

Facing the closest competition in their group, the hopes for the Sounders may have been at something of a season-low, but up until Botafogo’s opening goal in the 28th minute – and frankly throughout the whole match – the two sides looked pretty evenly matched despite differences in their respective spending power and roster valuations.

The 2-1 result was the product of the two sides’ performances in fine-margin moments, as the Sounders failed to properly capitalize on keeping 60% possession and nearly doubling Botafogo’s shots (Seattle out-shot the visitors 23-12, taking 19 shots in the second half to Botafogo’s five as they chased the game), while the Brazilian side were able to turn two relatively innocuous moments into clinical finishes. The two sides were even credited with creating an equal number of “Big Chances” (generally understood as shots with an xG value of 0.15 or greater) at one apiece, and the ultimate difference coming from Jair Cunha putting away Botafogo’s chance on the set piece following Nouhou’s two-handed shove and yellow card. Seattle’s “Big Chance” fell to Jackson Ragen on a rebound following a good look from Albert Rusnák, but the CB couldn’t put his attempt anywhere near the empty net.

That on-field performance was perhaps clearest in the midfield. Seattle’s beating heart, the deserving heir to the Sounders engine after "el Corazon" Ozzie Alonso, Cristian Roldan put in a man-of-the-match performance and his partnership with Obed Vargas was key to that possession tilt in Seattle’s favor. While the Sounders were chasing the game, they only committed 6 fouls to Botafogo’s 18. Eight of those fouls were committed against Roldan and Vargas, with the pair leading all players in fouls suffered as each were on the receiving end of 4 fouls called. Seattle’s double-pivot completed 136 of 151 passes, including 8 of 9 long passes (Roldan went 5/6, Vargas 3/3), and won 20 of 38 duels (each entered 19 duels, with Roldan winning 12 and Vargas winning 8).

Although Roldan’s goal propelled him to man of the match status, at just 19 years old Vargas’s performance is the true standout. His 8/19 duel success rate isn’t the kind of thing that gets applause, but duels don’t necessarily need to be won to be valuable and his willingness and ability to hold his own in the middle of a bit of a street fight against a very combative Botafogo side while still shining in possession – 71/75 passes completed, 3/3 long balls, 4/8 successful dribbles, and only dispossessed twice with 99 touches – all stack up to show why he’s a written-in-ink starter for Brian Schmetzer and is so desired by clubs abroad. Obed Vargas’s reality is every bit as exciting as the expectations, and he’s still improving.

We still have two games to go against even tougher opponents, but 1/3 of the way through their bit of the Club World Cup the reality may not quite be lining up with the best of expectations or hopes, but that reality isn’t all that bad. That doesn’t make it less frustrating. Hell, it might be more frustrating that the most winnable game was within Seattle’s grasp and for a host of reasons they couldn’t get their hands on it. But if they can look more like they did in the second half over the next two games and into the rest of their season, we could be in for a hell of a ride and some pretty good games against a couple of the best clubs in the world, and that’s not such a bad thing.