MLS Fantasy Week 22: Freaky Friday

MLS has just won the All-Star match against Liga MX squads and now those players head back to their teams for one more MLS game before many start the Leagues Cup run (and a few are just playing friendlies). The next league games after this weekend are August 9th/10th. Will we see any rotation this weekend to save legs for Leagues Cup? There are a lot of tough decisions for fantasy and real managers alike (though, maybe a slight difference in importance).

Week 22 quick rankings

Goalkeepers

Aljaz Ivacic (7.6m), Hugo Lloris (7.4m), Kristijan Kahlina (6.8m), Andrew Rick (PHI 7.2m), Yohei Takaoka (9.8m)

Defenders

Ilay Feingold (9.3m), Ryan Hollingshead (6.8m), Adilson Malanda (7.9m), Kai Wagner (12.2m), Mathias Laborda (8.7m), Luca Orellano (10.3m), Andy Najar (10.1m)

Midfielders

Anders Dreyer (15.5m), Evander (15.2m), Hany Mukhtar (15.2m), Carles Gil (15.2m), Martin Ojeda (14.9m), Pep Biel (13.8m), Albert Rusnak (13.6m), Philip Zinckernagel (13.4m), Jack McGlynn (12.3m), Diego Luna (11.0m), Javairo Dilrosun (9.0m)

Forwards

Leo Messi (15.3m*), Sam Surridge (13.6m), Denis Bouanga (13.0m), Hugo Cuypers (11.8m), Petar Musa (10.7m), Danny Musovski (7.7m), Idan Toklomati (5.7m)

Week 22 schedule

Note that games start tonight at 4:30pm Pacific, beginning with the Revs hosting Montreal and a huge match in Columbus playing Orlando. The Revs are sort of favorites, just by virtue of being a home team against last place in the conference, but they have only won once in 14 games themselves. Of course, their one win in that span was a road win at Montreal. Maybe they rise from the dead a bit here? The Crew and Orlando will be a great match which I could see going either way – both are good teams, though Orlando seems a step below the elite Eastern teams at the moment.

Dallas hosts NYCFC at 5:30pm, as well as Houston playing the Galaxy across the state. Dallas has picked up their goalscoring recently, with at least two goals in five of their last seven matches. The question will be whether they can keep NYCFC out of the net. They did so against St. Louis for a 3-0 win, but NYCFC will likely be a tougher test. Houston is also favored, but the Galaxy have shown themselves happy to play spoiler and scrap for every point they can get.

Then the next games are at 7:30pm, LAFC vs Portland and San Diego in a cross-country match against the visiting Nashville. That's 5th and 6th in the West and 2nd in the East visiting 1st in the West. Definitely some big games here. The home teams are favored again, of course, but the visitors are dangerous.

Saturday night has the usual slate, although Miami vs Cincinnati kicks off a little early at 4:15pm. That should be another barnburner; we'll see if Miami can get revenge after their 3-0 defeat at Cincinnati just a few weeks ago (EDIT: They will have to do it without Messi or Alba). 4:30pm has Atlanta hosting Seattle, Charlotte playing Toronto, DC against Austin and Philadelphia taking on Colorado. Of these games I think Charlotte is likely to win, Seattle and Austin are slight road favorites against poor teams, and Philadelphia probably should win, but Colorado can beat anyone when they are sharp.

The remaining four games of the week are Chicago vs NYRB and St. Louis against Minnesota at 5:30pm, Salt Lake hosting San Jose at 6:30pm and then Vancouver gets Kansas City to finish off the week at 7:30pm. Minnesota should put up a strong performance, otherwise you have to favor the home teams in these ones.

Thoughts and Players

Defenses

New England – They beat Montreal 3-0 on the road last time around, so it's a reasonable bet to test out one or two New England defensive players in the first time slot of the week and see how they do. The Revs have kind of fallen off a cliff in terms of defensive effectiveness and Caleb Porter can't be long for the job, but this is still a plus matchup given Montreal's woes this year (tied for second fewest goals scored). Since he played 90 minutes last time out, you might as well go with Ilay Feingold (9.3m).

LAFC – Portland has just five points in their past six games. Their underlying xGD numbers have suggested they are far from a top Western squad, and it seems those are finally catching up to them. Meanwhile, LAFC has been a top-5 defense this year. Of course, it will be a makeshift defensive line as they are missing Aaron Long (long-term injury), Sergei Palencia (away for his green card process), and Eddie Segura (suspended). Given that, Ryan Hollingshead (6.8m) is the only regular starter available.

Charlotte – They get Toronto this week, who have been playing somewhat better since Bernardeschi and Insigne were jettisoned but are still a lower-quality attack. This is a matchup pick as Charlotte is relatively average on defense. As usual, the guy to take is Adilson Malanda (7.9m), though Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty has been taking on increasing responsibility as he takes hold of a starting spot.

Philadelphia – Possibly the best defense in the league, they should be up to the task of stopping Colorado. Kai Wagner (12.2m) is a mainstay for a reason.

Vancouver – A reasonable if risky late option. SKC is rarely shut out and Veselinovic now has a long-term injury, but if you want a late-night pick after taking some risks Saturday afternoon, Vancouver is a good place to be. I think the pick here would be Mathias Laborda (8.7m) as he is a 90-minute player in normal weeks and has the best attacking numbers of the healthy options.

Luca Orellano (10.3m) – He's settled back into the wingback role that seems to be his best position, with two goals and three assists in his past six games (one goal coming in a sub appearance last week). I don't think he'll replicate the 11 points he had against Miami the last go-around, but more attacking returns are likely on the table.

Andy Najar (10.1m) – His attacking returns don't always show up on the score sheet, but he does have a goal and seven assists on the year. Kai Wagner is the only defender with more assists, though three of Najar's came in one game against Chicago. And who knows, San Diego has been showing some vulnerabilities and Nashville is a much better team than the Toronto squad that just won at San Diego 1-0.

Midfielders

Anders Dreyer (15.5m) – Yes, I know last game week was disappointing. And his scores drop somewhat with Chucky starting, as they have to share more of the ball including on penalty kicks. But Dreyer is still an elite talent with a big game on the line, and they tend to show up in those moments.

Evander (15.2m) – What more can we say about him? He is simply dazzling from week to week and is a truly special talent. It seems he can and will continue to make a mockery of his underlying xG numbers.

Hany Mukhtar (15.2m) – Former MVP, future MVP? Nashville has been great on the road this year and SD has been showing signs of weakness. A consistent and strong option.

Carles Gil (15.2m) – One of the best bonus points farmers because of his work building the attack, at home against Montreal is a great opportunity to get back on the score sheet.

Martin Ojeda (14.9m) – After a disappointing home game against NYCFC, he went and scored two goals on New England on the road with a reasonable haul of bonus points. It'll be harder for him to find space against Columbus, but he is still averaging more than 9 points over his last eight games and only one match score was less than that average.

Pep Biel (13.8m) – He's really turned a corner and is leading this Charlotte squad. He had three goals and an assist last game week. I'd expect him to keep it up at home against Toronto.

Albert Rusnak (13.6m) – He just makes things happen, he's got three goals and three assists in his last three games. 10 points against the Earthquakes with half coming from bonus points. At Atlanta is a great chance to continue that momentum.

Philip Zinckernagel (13.4m) – Chicago's own maestro, he's at the heart of basically all their strong attacking moves. The Red Bulls were exposed by Miami, though we'll see if that just because it is Miami.

Jack McGlynn (12.3m) – I'll keep him on this list as long as I want. He has the same three-game average as Dreyer, Antony, Goncalves and Almiron. He was handed the PK against his former team, Philadelphia. I think he's ready to run through walls and Houston should have plenty of possession against the visiting Galaxy.

Diego Luna (11.0m) – Here for discussion purposes, as his numbers fluctuate between average/acceptable and very strong. At home against the mighty vulnerable Earthquakes is a good time to bet on him getting on the scoresheet, though.

Javairo Dilrosun (9.0m) – LAFC extended his loan by a couple of days so he'll be available for one last match before they have to send him home or sign him to a deal. He's been very good for LAFC in his short tenure and I expect Cherundolo will give him another opportunity to make his case against Portland. Could be explosive, especially if LAFC is engaged in another blowout.

Forwards

Leo Messi (15.3m) – Duh. Well, at least, assuming he plays. By the book he probably should be suspended for skipping the All-Star Game (along with Alba) and there are conflicting reports today about whether he will or won't be suspended. But come on, it is Messi. If they league can find an excuse they will let him play. EDIT: MLS has suspended Messi and Alba for skipping the All-Star Game, so count him out.

Sam Surridge (13.6m) – He's been electric everywhere this year, why not at San Diego?

Denis Bouanga (13.0m) – He's single-handedly carrying LAFC's attack because he is just that good. Four straight weeks with a goal (five total) and nine goals in his last 10 games. I'm not sure Portland is the team to stop him.

Hugo Cuypers (11.8m) – He had a nice poacher’s goal last match, and I think is one of the top bets to score this week.

Petar Musa (10.7m) – Dallas's offense has come alive over the past few months, often scoring at least two goals (though often allowing 3+ goals). Musa has two braces in a row, at San Jose and against St. Louis. He's really taken off with Acosta off the pitch (and soon gone?). I'm not sure it is sustainable for him, but since he came back from injury he's been one of the more reliable options.

Danny Musovski (7.7m) – With Jordan Morris picking up a fresh injury, Musovski came off the bench against San Jose and got a brace. He's up to eight goals in league play in 1,074 minutes, plus two assists to boot. He'll be back as a starter against Atlanta, and will have a big opportunity to deliver.

Idan Toklomati (5.7m) – Not as big a week as I thought he might last week (some top-tier options were much better and Zaha outdid him in Atlanta), but he did get a goal and a handful of bonus points. His npxG+xAG is now the same as Biel's, though his actual production has some catching up to do. Home against Toronto is a great time for this budget option.

Captain considerations

Leo Messi – He ended his brace streak against Cincinnati but then immediately got a new one started. I expect Miami to be more comfortable at home against them and for Messi to shine as usual (of course, as noted above, assuming he plays). (see above)

Evander – If you think he replicates his magic against Miami and Cincinnati wins, he's your option.

Denis Bouanga – He's simply on fire lately. I don't know that Portland can handle him.

Albert Rusnak – Dream team last week and highest scoring midfielder. Mercedes-Benz Stadium has been very kind to visiting attackers. Reasonable pick in my mind.