I'm feeling a little down after last week, as CWC came to an end for MLS with zero points for the Sounders and (more importantly) despite recommending them I didn't actually put Evander or Surridge on my fantasy team and was obliterated in the rankings. It wasn't just those misses that had my team a long distance from a good ranking, but those still felt particularly bad. And yet, tomorrow is a holiday and we have a relatively normal fantasy week coming right up, plus it is the start of another FCL qualifying period, where everyone who hasn't qualified is starting fresh. Now is a great time to make a push and try and nail the teams here on out.
Week 19 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Tomas Romero (6.0m), Yohei Takaoka (9.4m), Roman Celentano (7.2m), Hugo Lloris (6.4m), CJ Dos Santos (8.2m)
Defenders
Justin Haak (9.6m), Tristian Blackmon (10.0m), Luca Orellano (9.5m), Eddie Segura (8.3m), Paddy McNair (10.4m if starting)
Midfielders
Anders Dreyer (14.2m), Carles Gil (14.0m), Hany Mukhtar (13.8m), Evander (13.7m), Martin Ojeda (13.4m), Albert Rusnak (13.0m), Philip Zinckernagel (11.9m), Hannes Wolf (10.3m), Lucho Acosta (8.6m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (13.8m), Cristian Arango (13.0m), Sam Surridge (12.5m), Kevin Denkey (11.6m), Alonso Martinez (11.2m), Christian Benteke (10.5m), Milan Ilovski (??)
Week 19 Schedule
This week kicks off shortly with NYCFC facing Toronto at 4:30pm Pacific Thursday (tonight). Toronto just jettisoned their two big-money DPs and are clearly in full rebuild mode. Sometimes this can galvanize the leftovers but too often Bernardeschi was the only one providing the spark for Toronto. I expect a dip and NYCFC has vastly improved their defense from earlier in the year. Should be an NYCFC win, but we'll see when the game is played.
Friday has three 4th of July games: Dallas v Minnesota at 5:45pm, Colorado against Kansas City at 6:30pm and Galaxy hosting Vancouver at 7:30pm. Dallas has been scrappy lately getting some results, but Minnesota has been clearly the superior team over the year. I have no idea which Colorado team is going to show up against SKC, the team that stifled the Galaxy 2-0 or the team that's lost six of their last 10 matches. SKC has only lost two in their past eight, but also have only won two. I expect the Galaxy to get flattened by Vancouver but it probably ends up a 3-1 mess.
Saturday has the bulk of matches, one kicking off slightly early at 4:15pm: Charlotte facing Orlando. The 4:30pm games are Cincinnati hosting Chicago, DC against Atlanta, and Montreal facing Miami. 5:30pm has Austin vs LAFC and Nashville vs Philadelphia. 6:30pm has one game, Salt Lake against St. Louis. and at 7:30pm it is Portland vs New England, San Diego against Houston, and San Jose hosting NYRB.
The last game of the week is 2:00pm on Sunday, Seattle vs Columbus.
Note that a bunch of teams have USOC/Canada Championship and some MLS games midweek next week, so some may do a little more rotation than usual this weekend, especially those on the road this weekend. I know it's a holiday but as always it pays to pay attention to the lineups. The teams affected: Minnesota v Chicago, San Jose v Austin (Tuesday); Montreal (v Forge FC), Philadelphia v NYRB, New England v Miami, Nashville v DC, Vancouver (v Valour), LAFC v Colorado (Wednesday).
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
NYCFC - Toronto just cut ties with their mega-money DPs, together making more money than many teams' salaries, and are in a full-on rebuild. Toronto did just beat up the Timbers and had a home draw against NYRB, but this is an early-week match you can test out some defenders in against one of the worse teams in the league. You'll want Justin Haak (9.6m) most likely (this article from The Outfield shows why he has been getting some assist opportunities lately playing a hybrid role: "Pascal's Wager") and with Freese playing the Gold Cup it should be Tomas Romero (6.0m) in net.
Vancouver - Best defense in the league, they are a consideration every week even on the road. They are undoubtedly the superior team to the Galaxy and just blanked a much better (though maybe a little tired) LAFC on the road. You can pick whoever from the starting roster, though Tristian Blackmon (10.0m) has been best on the season.
Cincinnati - Really this is for one guy: Luca Orellano (9.5m) who finally got back to goalscoring against Montreal (and then sat out against Orlando).
LAFC - They are on the road at Austin this week. They got shut out and beat at home by Vancouver in their return from the CWC and lost at home to Austin earlier in the season, but I expect LAFC to come out strong in this one. If you want in here I think the play is Eddie Segura (8.3m) whose passing numbers have been crazy in recent games.
San Diego - They host Houston this week, who are still missing McGlynn to the Gold Cup. I think San Diego will dictate the pace of this game and not let Houston have the ball, a lot of possession for SD's defenders and likely a clean sheet to boot. I like Paddy McNair (10.4m) but only if he is healthy and starting again, otherwise take your pick of Pilcher, Bombino or McVey.
Midfielders
Anders Dreyer (14.2m) - Huge road games last week, including an assist hat trick at Vancouver and then a G+A at Dallas. The only game that he did not have an assist in his past six games was at Seattle. Home to Houston is a very manageable game for San Diego given what is a clear talent gap, especially with McGlynn at the Gold Cup.
Carles Gil (14.0m) - Showed his quality last week with a goal and assist, and ten bonus points between the two games. Long trip away to Portland, by far New England's farthest league road game so far, but he's shown his quality against better defenses.
Hany Mukhtar (13.8m) - A frankly disappointing week last week, given that Surridge went off for 26 points, but he still has one the highest floors for a mid this year. His consistency is key. The Union coming to town will be a tougher defensive test so adjust your expectations accordingly.
Evander (13.7m) - Well, I said his ceiling was high last week and he pretty much obliterated the ceiling. A Messi-esque 35 points. He's now exceeding his xG by a full seven goals. Going back to 2021, only two players have exceeded their xG by more than seven goals over a full season: Duncan McGuire in 2023 (+7.7) and Leo Messi in 2024 (+8.2). Evander is on track to crush those numbers.
Martin Ojeda (13.4m) - Nine or more points in his last four games and six of the last nine (which includes a 23-minute sub appearance). He's nearly a must-start when he's actually starting for Orlando. If Ojeda is not starting or you just want a differential, Pašalić has been nearly as good for Orlando.
Albert Rusnak (13.0m) - Rusnak's last game against the Crew he had a hat trick (Crew were down a player with a field player in goal, but still). At home with rest, I think Rusnak is one of the top-5 mids this week.
Philip Zinckernagel (11.9m) - On the road at Cincy, he'll be looking to continue his scorching hot run of form. He was a little quiet against Philadelphia, but he's had five goals and four assists in his past six games. He is key to Chicago's attack these days.
Hannes Wolf (10.3m) - He's been extremely good running the attack with Alonso Martinez playing with Costa Rica at the Gold Cup. Martinez will be back for today's match, but Wolf is still likely to be a central facilitator against the woeful TFC.
Lucho Acosta (8.6m) - Dallas's offense has been showing signs of life, and Minnesota has a USOC game on Tuesday to consider (not to mention a friendly on Monday that should (mostly?) be Minny2 players) plus a defense that has fallen from the league leaders (especially with Dayne St. Clair with Canada). Could be a great differential play.
Forwards
Leo Messi (13.8m) - If he travels to Montreal and starts, you should probably start him.
Cristian Arango (13.0m) - He's a playmaker and finisher for SJ, one of the best attacks in the league. Strong consideration every week that he is healthy.
Sam Surridge (12.5m) - Clear golden boot frontrunner, he just keeps scoring everywhere. Maybe that streak comes to an end against Philadelphia, but who else is more likely to score?
Kevin Denkey (11.6m) - A home game against Chicago might be just what's needed for Denkey to separate himself from the big group of eight players at 10/11 goals to chase down Baribo (13) and Surridge (16!). He's 12th in total xG and 24th by xG/90 though, so temper expectations. Still, it is Chicago's defense coming to town.
Alonso Martinez (11.2m) - Back from the Gold Cup he'll likely return to the focus of NYCFC's attack and he gets to potentially feast on visiting Toronto. High risk high reward given his points are fairly goal dependent (one assist and averaging about 1.5 BPs).
Christian Benteke (10.5m) - If he starts, he's getting 60+ minutes of Atlanta's road defense. That sounds very enticing to me, given how good his form was when he was healthy. Still, it may be a game early.
Milan Iloski (??) - He's 20th on San Diego for minutes, clocking in at just 389. And yet after his four-goal explosion at Vancouver he has nine goals, tied for the team lead. This is not sustainable, of course, as he's already 2nd in the league in goals - xG scoring over five more goals than expected, but his npxG/90 is still elite at 0.86 (small sample size of course but the league leader is Josef Martinez at 0.80 and Daniel Musovski is second at 0.72). Of course, he has still not been added to the fantasy game yet, a sad sign of the level of care given to the game. If he's added though, he could be an elite option at a good price point. If Chucky is healthy enough to start, he's another strong consideration.
Captain Considerations
Leo Messi - The GOAT is back in MLS play, off some disappointment at the CWC, but he's still the GOAT. His FK against FC Porto was vintage excellence and the kind of thing that lets you discard all other considerations and make him your captain.
Sam Surridge - He's on a tear, and who's to stop him? If you want to get on the bandwagon he's a strong Messi alternative.
Evander - Back home against Chicago this week, I think he can keep defying the numbers and deliver for Cincy.
Anders Dreyer - He's like Evander but with underlying numbers to support his excellence (he's 5th in npxG+xAG/90, Evander is 39th).
