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Three stats: Seattle Reign vs. Portland Thorns

Looking at the data behind the Reign's rivalry

Last Updated
6 min read
Madison Curry whips in a cross against the Portland Thorns. Photo

Seattle Reign, riding a four-match unbeaten streak, came to Portland last Sunday to take on the Thorns in the second Cascadia rivalry match of the season. After winning the first battle at home, the Reign struggled in the nearly 100-degree heat and fell 4-2 to the Thorns at Providence Park.

Jess Fishlock and Emeri Adames scored the Reign's two goals in front of nearly 600 traveling Reign supporters (tickets distributed). Adames now leads the team with five goals, which puts her tied for seventh in the league for goals scored.

While the match didn't end how the team wanted, it is genuinely awesome to see the growth in traveling support over the years. I remember attending a match 10 years ago that featured a dozen or so Reign fans in the away supporters section.

Reign get burned in Portland heat
The 4-2 loss marks the most goals ever in a Cascadia Clash

Let's dive into three stats from the rough road loss.

394

Despite the Reign having the most possession they've had all season (60%), they struggled to progress the ball into their attacking half. The Reign had 394 touches in their defensive penalty box and defensive third — the highest total for Seattle all season.

Sofia Huerta, starting as the central centerback in the Reign's three-back, led the match with 120 touches (according to FotMob). She was followed by Shae Holmes (79) and Claudia Dickey (70). The majority of those touches were in the Reign's defensive third.

On the other hand, the Reign had just 99 touches in their attacking third, the fifth-lowest this season. For a game where they dominated possession, this is not good enough. The Reign struggled for much of the game to adjust to the Thorns' defensive shape and find connections in their attacking half.

Portland pressed the Reign in a 4-2-4, with midfielder Jessie Fleming moving higher to press with the frontline. They didn't aggressively pressure the Reign's backline, however. Instead, they dropped to cut off passing lanes. This tempted the Reign to try to play through the midfield, where the Thorns midfield was waiting to pounce, or spray passes to their wingbacks or try balls over the top. Seattle couldn't do any of these particularly well, and instead, the Reign moved the ball somewhat slowly along the backline.

Here's another stat that helps explain their struggles: despite Maddie Dahlien and Madison Curry having some room to operate as the two wingbacks, the Reign couldn't find them. Curry completed a season-low 16 passes, and Dahlien had a season-low 17 touches. When the Reign were able to find Curry on the wing, good things happened — like her assist to Jess Fishlock to bring the score to 3-2.

Flyin' Fishlock 🐟

NWSL (@nwslsoccer.com) 2025-08-10T21:52:57.407Z

This play happened because the Reign moved it quickly from left to right to find Curry in space. The one time the Reign were able to get Dahlien in behind, she caused Portland some problems.

4.3

Shockingly, the 4-2 scoreline was somewhat flattering to the Reign, as the Thorns peppered the team with shots and had five big chances, according to FotMob. The Thorns finished with 4.3 expected goals (xG). Their post-shot xG total was even higher, at 5.6 xG.

Before Sunday's match, the Reign had allowed more than 2 expected goals just once this season — in their 2-1 loss to the Spirit. Even last year, the Reign didn't give up more than 3 xG in a single game. The last time Seattle allowed more than 3 xG was in their 4-1 extra-time loss to the North Carolina Courage in the 2019 NWSL semifinals. It's been THAT long, and that required extra time and a dominant Courage side.

On another day, the Reign might have done enough offensively to walk away with a win on Sunday. They generated 1.1 xG on the road against Portland, who haven't lost in 10 straight home matches. That total marked the fourth-highest xG the Thorns conceded at home this year. But as Laura Harvey said after the game, when you give up four goals from set pieces, you're always going to lose.

Here's a breakdown of Portland's chances from set plays:

  • In the 8th minute, Sam Meza loses the ball and gets whistled for a foul trying to win it back. The Thorns go quickly with their free kick, which is deflected out to Reyna Reyes, whose shot is deflected out for a corner kick by Claudia Dickey.
  • The first goal came from an uncharacteristic mistake from Jordyn Bugg, who fouled Reilyn Turner in the box and struggled in the Portland heat.
  • The second was the result of the Reign's inability to clear the ball and reset defensively on a corner kick, allowing Jessie Fleming to chip her pass over the backline for Turner to run onto and volley into the goal unmarked. If the Reign had stepped up with more intensity, Turner might have been offside, or Fleming would have been unable to chip the ball with her first touch.
  • While they didn't score, Portland got two shots off in the 48th minute off a free kick that started near half, which Dickey did well to stop (and Moultrie could have been whistled for a foul).
  • In the 55th minute, Portland's third goal came off another free kick. Again, the Reign were unable to clear it — leaving Olivia Moultrie with the ball in the 18-yard box. She beat Meza, then got a lot of luck deflecting her cross off Curry's back and right to Reyes. Still, that whole sequence could have been avoided if the Reign were more organized on the initial set piece.
  • In the 62nd minute, Portland defender Isabella Obaze headed a corner kick just over the goal.
  • Right after Fishlock gave the team a little bit of hope, they completely shut off after Portland's kickoff, allowing Fleming to one-touch a ball to Hina Sugita — bypassing the Reign midfield with just one pass. Shae Holmes is pulled wider to mark Sugita, and Pietra Tordin finds the space between Holmes and Sofia Huerta. It's an easy pass from Sugita to find her in the box.
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Portland's shots and goals that came off of set pieces

It's easy to point to Phoebe McClernon's absence as the reason for the Reign's struggles. She's been a critical organizer on the backline and seems to always be there to clean up messes. She's third in the league in clearances per game and has an astounding 86.4% tackle success rate (per FotMob). She likely would have been a game-changer, and fortunately, it sounds like she'll be back next week.

In addition, looking back at this game, it felt like the Reign could have used Angharad James-Turner in the midfield alongside Meza. Sally Menti struggled in her first rivalry match, as Portland dominated the midfield, especially in transition, and limited Menti's time on the ball. James-Turner is a veteran organizer who is strong in possession and defensive-minded, and it felt like she could have helped limit how much the Reign back there were stretched and put under pressure.

It's also very possible that the Reign just couldn't deal with the heat, which was significantly hotter on the turf than the air temperature.

35%

In a rivalry match, as Harvey noted before the game, you have to win the first and second balls to be able to deploy the tactics you want and control the game. The Reign won just 35% of their ground duels on Sunday — another contributing factor to their struggles.

Dahlien went 0/3 on ground duels, Holmes won 1/4, and Bugg, Curry, and Fishlock all won 1/3 ground duels. Adames (2/6) and Huitema (2/5) also struggled to win these balls higher up the field. Menti and Meza were the most active, but still won just 7/13 ground duels.

Meanwhile, Portland's midfield trio of Sugita, Fleming, and Sam Coffey won 16/23 ground duels — just one example of how active and dominant they were in the middle of the pitch.

It was the first taste of a road rivalry match for so many Reign players. Now they know what it feels like. Here's hoping they learn their lessons for the next one.


The Reign have historically done well to bounce back after a bad loss. Here's hoping they learn all the important lessons from this game and can do that. They'll have a chance for some redemption in front of home fans. On Monday, August 18, the Reign host the Chicago Stars. The 7 p.m. PT home match will air on Fox 13+ locally and CBS Sports Network nationally.

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