It feels like I hardly have to say it week to week, but "pick Messi" is really the golden rule for MLS Fantasy. He had another monstrous week last week, scoring 35 points, which was crazy enough just barely outdone by Son Heung-min scoring 36 points. But it is Messi's week again with another DGW, though this time we have some reason for caution given that Miami is in the middle of three back-to-back DGWs and has a road game on the weekend in Toronto. Does he travel? Should you captain him anyway? Hopefully and probably, I think.
Week 29 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Oscar Ustari (4.8m), Matt Freese (8.2m), Yohei Takaoka (9.9m), James Pantemis (8.5m), Kristijan Kahlina (10.3m), Andre Blake (7.3m)
Defenders
Jordi Alba (9.0m), Justin Haak (9.7m), Ali Ahmed (9.2m), Finn Surman (7.9m), Adilson Malanda (10.4m), Kai Wagner (12.3m), Luca Orellano (9.6m)
Midfielders
Double
Rodrigo De Paul (12.2m), Hannes Wolf (9.9m), Maxi Moralez (9.9m), Sebastian Berhalter (12.5m), Antony (9.6m), Kristoffer Velde (10.2m), Kenji Cabrera (9.0m)
Single
Martin Ojeda (17.4m), Anders Dreyer (17.0m), Hany Mukhtar (16.9m), Evander (16.6m), Jack McGlynn (15.1m), Pep Biel (13.7m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (16.8m), Denis Bouanga (14.7m), Son Hueng-min (13.5m), Sam Surridge (13.5m), Chucky Lozano (13.3m) Alonso Martinez (13.2m), Dejan Joveljic (12.3m), Luis Suarez (11.3m), Brian White (11.1m), Brenner (10.5m), Idan Toklomati (9.2m)
Week 29 schedule
We've got four teams on the double this week: Miami and NYCFC again, plus Vancouver and Portland. The two Eastern teams square off in New York at 4:30 pm Wednesday evening, then Vancouver hosts Miami at 7:30 pm. NYCFC are on their own three-game win streak after knocking Charlotte off of a streak, but Miami can thrust themselves right back into the Supporters’ Shield conversation if they can win their games in hand. This will be exciting and I could see it running either way. Vancouver vs. Portland should be more of a mismatch, but Vancouver is missing a lot of players, headlined by Müller and Blackmon. Portland will be looking to avoid slipping to the play-in round, a real danger based on their recent form. Of course, if Vancouver wins then they will clinch the Cascadia Cup (a draw eliminates the Timbers).
The weekend kicks off Saturday with Miami visiting Toronto, their second road game of the week. I could definitely see Messi skipping this game as Miami has another DGW next week with two home games. Pick him with caution this week. Toronto has not won since July 16th, though they have drawn their past six games (five of them 1-1, plus 0-0 against Atlanta).
4:30 pm has Charlotte vs. Montreal, DC vs. Philadelphia, New England against Atlanta and the NY Derby in New Jersey. Montreal is once again worst in the East, so I would expect Charlotte to get right back to winning. Similarly, you'd think Philadelphia should be good for three points at DC. The Revs and Atlanta will be a bit of a misery bowl, a game I'm staying away from for fantasy purposes given their unpredictable form. The Red Bulls will be looking to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over NYCFC after getting just their second road win of the season last week.
5:30 pm has Chicago vs. Columbus, Nashville and Houston, and St. Louis hosting LAFC. Chicago will need to prove itself more against top tier competition to stay ahead of NYRB for the ninth playoff slot and waning Columbus, who have just six points in six matches since the Leagues Cup break, and just lost new DP Abou Ali for at least the rest of the regular season. Nashville looked to have their first draw since May against Orlando until a last second winner (sound familiar?) cost them all the points. They have just one win and zero draws in their last seven league matches, and though they are in the Open Cup final on Wednesday after this match, they will likely need to secure points against Houston to avoid the play-in round or potentially even falling out of the playoffs entirely. I don't have much hope for St. Louis against LAFC based on how thoroughly LAFC dismantled RSL.
6:30 pm has two games – Colorado against Minnesota and Salt Lake against Austin. Minnesota was just shocked at home with a 3-0 loss to Chicago, and may have a tough test here despite Colorado's uneven form. I also favor Austin getting a result at Salt Lake, but this is probably one to avoid for fantasy purposes.
7:30 pm gets Galaxy vs. Kansas City, Portland against Dallas, San Diego hosting San Jose and then Seattle and Vancouver. The Galaxy/SKC game could be very fun as these teams have allowed a combined 124 goals this year. There are probably some goals in this one, but it’s hard to say where they will be from unless you want to bet on Joveljic for some reason. Portland will probably be favored against Dallas at home, but Dallas has been much better with Acosta off the team and beat Portland at home 2-0 at the beginning of August. I would not over-index on Portland if I were you – Dallas has lost just once since July 16th. You gotta like San Diego over San Jose for some goals. Then we have a massive Cascadia Cup match, albeit one where Vancouver will have its eye on the Canadian Championship match the following week. The Whitecaps have a very strong chance at the #1 seed in the West and would surely relish pushing Seattle further down the standings.
Sunday's lone match is Cincinnati taking on Orlando. Cincy is second in the east and Orlando is sixth, but their seven-point difference gets much smaller if Orlando wins here and makes up more ground in their game in hand. I'm expecting the stars to put on a show in this one.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Double – I think this week it is totally reasonable to take a shot at any of the DGW defenses, but there are good single game options.
Miami – I obviously like Jordi Alba (9.0m) for his offensive contributions. His 20 points last week was stellar. And I think they have a real shot at a CS once this week, though given the state of their defense it is unlikely. The nice thing if you want Alba and/or Ustari is they play both DGW games before any of the single-game defenders play, so you can preview their full score before deciding whether or not to put them in.
NYCFC – You can go with some NYCFC defenders, but playing against the GOAT and then against a hot NYRB team on the "road" will be tough. The man there as usual if you want to buy in is Justin Haak (9.7m).
Vancouver – Strong shot at a CS at home against Portland and a reasonable one against Seattle, given their strength this season and Seattle's struggles in MLS play lately. Note that Ocampo (and Cubas, not a D but important for defense) are suspended for this one and Blackmon is injured. The top choice is probably still Ali Ahmed (9.2m), though he may be playing back a line instead of as winger and we could see some rotation on the weekend for Can Champ prep. Laborda is another top choice, though he is on YCW, and we probably see two starts for Tate Johnson and Belal Halbouni.
Portland – I don't have a lot of hope for Portland in Vancouver, but if they stay true to their place in the table, they should have a strong shout for a CS at home against Dallas. If you want to take a stab at going with a Portland defender/keeper, you might want to have Celentano or Gallese in the back pocket. If you want a defender here Finn Surman (7.9m) is the choice, as he's averaging almost exactly one passing BP a game and has only taken one yellow on the year.
Single
Charlotte – This week they host Montreal. They have been far and away the best home squad on the year, blanking Messi/Miami and a lot of other teams. A double-up of Adilson Malanda (10.4m) and Tim Ream (9.1m) is totally reasonable as the top-side of a DGW gamble.
Philadelphia – The usual suspect, Kai Wagner (12.3m), is ever present here and a totally reasonable choice this week, even with Philadelphia on the road – after all, it's DC they are playing.
Luca Orellano (9.6m) – I don't have a lot of hope for Cincy's defense holding a CS against a very good Orlando squad, but Orellano is perhaps back up to speed after his injury. He had 13 KPs against the Galaxy last week and was just a bit short of showing up on the score sheet.
Midfielders
Double
Rodrigo De Paul (12.2m) – Nothing flashy but he's averaging over 6 points. Last DGW that was good for 13 points. A single-round score of 10+ is a very good return. You should probably find room for him.
Hannes Wolf/Maxi Morales (9.9m/9.9m) – Neither of these guys excite me. Morales can score 7-8 points plenty often but has not been consistent and is averaging 4.3 points per game since Nico began starting for NYCFC (Nico is averaging 3.5 points). Wolf has a lot of scores of 5 points or less, then random double-digit games. One of those was last week, pushing his 6-game average up to 5.3 points. Nothing to write home about. If you think that brace week was an outlier (maybe it is?) then his 5-game average is 3.4 points. I think they are reasonable choices but not exciting.
Sebastian Berhalter (12.5m) – He's raised his level after his summer at the Gold Cup, with three double-digit games for an average of 6.5 points in that span. You could end up with just 6 points as he's scored three points three times in that span, or you could end up with a couple of whoppers.
Antony (9.6m) – He scores some goals for Portland. Could have a big week but I'm not sure he's worth a spot over more consistent midfielders with a higher ceiling.
Kristoffer Velde (10.2m) – A new addition for Portland, he's shown some promise and seems likely to get a good dose of minutes (their other new addition, just added to the game today, Matias Rojas, hasn't played more than 61 minutes yet). Could be a double-digit player this week, but a bit of a gamble.
Kenji Cabrera (9.0m) – A new U-22 signing for Vancouver, he's a Japan-born Peruvian player who has a bunch of caps for Peru's U-20 squad. He scored a goal in his first start for Vancouver last week and he could be in for a bunch of minutes with other guys injured or otherwise unavailable. A high upside, low floor differential DGW choice.
Single
Martin Ojeda (17.4m) – Big game on the road to Cincy. He will want to show up Evander and push Orlando up the table. I regretted not having him last week.
Anders Dreyer (17.0m) – SD gets SJ at home, should be a big game for Anders.
Hany Mukhtar (16.9m) – Nashville is on a full-on skid, but Mukhtar is doing his best. Still scoring well, and will likely find time and space against Houston. Perhaps not a top-five option this week but one to consider.
Evander (16.6m) – On the flip side, Evander will want to show up against Ojeda and keep Cincy in the top couple of spots in the East, with the Shield a possibility. Three assists against the Galaxy in a 17-point performance. He's crazy.
Jack McGlynn (15.1m) – Two double-digit games since returning from USMNT duty. Nashville is on a skid and McGlynn could find space against what had been a good team. I think I'd like him more than Mukhtar right now, maybe not quite above some other guys here though.
Pep Biel (13.7m) – He's coming back from injury, but he was one of, if not the, hottest midfielder in the league before his injury. This week is Montreal at home, a major opportunity.
Forwards
Double
Leo Messi (16.8m) – He should be starting tonight, but we'll see about the weekend. He can probably be a worthy captain just from tonight's score.
Alonso Martinez (13.2m) – A brace against Charlotte rescued his DGW last week. That's now nine goals in his past nine games. He should be in everyone's team.
Luis Suarez (11.3m) – Back from suspension, how will he do? I think very well, the question will be whether he is one of the top three players on Miami you want to pick, and whether you like other forwards enough to skip him.
Brian White (11.1m) – He's not on the injury report, but you have to question what kind of minutes he'll get anyway. If he's starting against Portland, he might be a top tier option anyway.
Single
Denis Bouanga/Son Heung-min (14.7m/13.5m) – Yeah, so, these guys are both ridiculously good. I fear for the defenses they face. Either choice is good, I think Son is a little ahead but either of them can go off any given week. My first choice of single-game players.
Sam Surridge (13.5m) – He's got a bit of ground to make up in the golden boot race with Messi going buck wild. I’m not sure he has it in him to win it, but if Nashville are going to stop the skid they will likely need his contributions.
Chucky Lozano (13.3m) – Like Dreyer, he has San Jose at home. A good place to be.
Dejan Joveljic (12.3m) – Playing the Galaxy has been a major source of fantasy points this year, and Joveljic is the most exciting thing either of these teams has going. Could be a quality differential.
Brenner (10.5m) – I am not picking him this week, but he has three goals in his three games back with Cincy, going 90 minutes in each. Cincinnati might go all the way if he keeps this up.
Idan Toklomati (9.2m) – He was quiet at NYCFC but gets Montreal this week. Can he top his hat trick against Miami with another big game?
Captain considerations
Leo Messi – While he didn't quite end up being the Dream Team captain last week, I don't think anyone who picked him is complaining. I could see some rotation this week though, so maybe if you like another guy it's time to give them a shout.
Alonso Martinez – The only consistent player on NYCFC for fantasy lately, he could easily have another couple of goals this week. Probably your second-best DGW option.
Sebastian Berhalter – I think he will get the minutes for Vancouver and he clearly has multiple double-digit games in him. Could be a dud, given he also scores plenty of 2s/3s, but could be a sneaky high-ceiling play.
Son Heung-min – His average since joining the league is 12 points! That's higher than Messi's year-long average of 11.18 points. I think he will regress some, but if you aren't convinced by any of the DGW options for some reason, Son is probably your next go-to.
