The Reign refuse to make it easy on themselves, but at the same time, the results have been enough: with points in four of their last five, they've either held or gained ground on just about everybody they're scrapping with for a playoff spot. While an invitation to the dance isn't yet absolutely secure, even a single point in their last two matches clinches, and the Reign control their destiny in a big way – if they win both remaining matches, they are guaranteed a home playoff match no matter how other results fall.
It's been a weird season, at times a rough season, one punctuated by unknowns and injuries, plans changing on the fly, underperformances (many) and overperformances (fewer, but significant.) The Reign have frustrated the fans, the stats nerds, and themselves alike, sometimes looking like a team that can trade punches with the absolutely imperious Kansas City, sometimes looking like a team that doesn't even belong on a pitch with the Chicago (Red) Stars and Utah Royals.
But as we close in on the final regular season matchdays of 2025, the Reign sit in 5th place, hold a clear path to a 3rd place finish, and control their own fate.
And while the underlying numbers haven't always looked great (or good, or even mediocre),
while the struggle to find any offense amidst the suffering has frustrated,
while the stats nerds (me, I'm stats nerds) cope with the results defying the odds,
it's because of moments like the end of this match against Bay FC that the Reign are in it. It's picking up one point instead of zero, three instead of one, time after time when a worse result seemed inevitable.
Mia Fishel creates chaos with her run across the face of goal.
Jess Fishlock picks up the spare and drives the ball home.
A loss becomes a draw. Zero points becomes one.
Everything else is just scribbling on a spreadsheet.
Goalkeeper
Claudia Dickey – 6
Once again, Claudia Dickey turned in a solid game, with tidy passing and ball control and two more saves on the scoresheet. For the most part, Bay FC didn't generate all that much offense – more than a third of their xG came on Taylor Huff's goal, a comedy of cascading defensive miscues that Claudia had no chance at stopping – and aside from Huff's goal, Dickey didn't face another shot on target until the 83rd minute.
While she didn't have all that much to do in the shot-stopping realm, she made the saves she could reasonably be expected to make, helped the Reign in possession and build-out, and turned in a perfectly solid and serviceable game. Managing the ball and keeping sharp for when the opponent finally does put another shot against you are important aspects of goalkeeping, too.
Defenders
Sofia Huerta – 7
Huerta was the gravitational center for the Reign, with 80 touches, 8 progressive passes, 3 shot-creating actions, 2 key passes, 8 recoveries, and a calm, consistent presence that pushed the team forward time after time.
She produced the first good chance for the Reign in the 11th minute, recovering her own blocked corner and quickly putting a perfect cross right back into the mixer. Jordyn Huitema's header should've opened the scoring, but, unfortunately, Jordan Silkowitz made a brilliant save to push it just up and off the crossbar. She also produced the last good chance for the Reign, an opportunity to snatch all three points at the death, her well-struck corner finding a wide-open Ainsley McCammon. Unfortunately, McCammon didn't time her jump, and her header sailed harmlessly over the bar.
With Madison Curry earning a ton of leeway at the right back position, Huerta seems to be settling in at left back, and showing she can be just as dangerous there as she was for so many years on the other side. It's a good thing.
Jordyn Bugg – 6
There's so much that Bugg does well when she's on her game, and so much that says she's going to be a best-XI centerback for years to come. In a back four that shifted to a back 3 in possession (a 3-2-6 when the Reign got into their full buildup, a very aggressive approach given the team's reputation for conservative play this season), Bugg was able to really shine in facilitating play. She was good for 78 touches and 89% passing, including dropping five really beautifully weighted long passes to put Bay on the back foot. When a pass wasn't immediately forthcoming, she carried the ball confidently to create time and space for herself. She really only put one foot noticeably wrong all game.
I do, however, have to also talk about that one foot wrong. In the 31st minute, Jordyn got caught out and coughed up the ball in her own defensive third with the Reign wildly out of shape, and seconds later, Racheal Kundananji delivered a ball across the face of goal for Taylor Huff to strike home. A big, big miscue for Bugg on an otherwise very good day at the office.
Phoebe McClernon – 6 (off 85' for Emily Mason)
McClernon as the anchor behind Huerta and Bugg in possession solves a bunch of problems for the Reign, creating an incredibly stable final line of defense but allowing for two strong-passing defenders to get into the buildup, and for Madison Curry to maraud ahead like an extra winger. This was on full display for the Reign against Bay, as Phoebe's stable, unexciting stay-at-home defense once again shut the door and repeatedly prevented possibility from becoming danger.
Her 13 defensive contributions – 6 clearances, 3 tackles, 3 blocks, and an interception – effectively muted the Bay front line, as Racheal Kundananji, Karlie Lema, Tess Boade, and Taylor Huff combined well but created only two good chances. Nearly every time a Bay attacker dribbled to create space, received the ball in a dangerous position, or looked ready to attack goal, Phoebe was there to make their life harder. She even contributed to a really solid chance, finding Nérilia Mondésir in the 37th minute, who splintered the post with the Reign's first big opportunity to level the score.
Madison Curry – 6 (off 86' for Lauren Barnes)
For better or for worse, Madison Curry is amongst the most aggressive fullbacks in the league in both her defensive energy and her attacking positioning; her average position in this match was further forward than Emeri Adames.
The good of that, of course, is that she had three shot-creating actions, two progressive passes, a key pass, and contributed to some really good chances for the Reign, the best of them her contribution to Nérilia Mondésir's 37th minute chance off the woodwork. That aggressive positioning creates matchup and overload nightmares for an opponent when the Reign are at their pressing and harrying best, and Curry found a ton of opportunities to take advantage of the numerical mismatches Bay FC coughed up.
The less-good manifested in the 31st minute on Bay FC's goal. While none of it happens if Bugg takes a better touch and doesn't lose the ball, Curry's aggressive instincts had her already running, and too far forward to recover. As a result, nobody was there to cover Taylor Huff's crashing run, and... goal.
Midfielders
Maddie Dahlien – 6
Danger Maddie was back to her old shenanigans with some new tricks! She stayed wide and won a corner off a blocked cutback in the 11th minute, took a long shot that challenged Silkowitz in the 29th, set up Mia Fishel for the chaotic sequence that led to the tying goal in the 84th, and ran the lines tirelessly for 90 minutes along the way, combining with teammates, providing vertical threat, and winning the ball in dangerous places.
She had two blocks and eight recoveries, and was a menace tracking back as well as just containing Bay on the press, and she seldom got beaten despite lining up against Kundananji, Tess Boade, and Caprice Dydasco, speaking heavily to her defensive value even when playing high up the pitch as a winger. All that was missing was the final bit of execution – the quality touch to turn nothing into a half-chance, the change of direction to change a half-chance into a banger.
She's adding more nuance and depth to her game every match, and I'm looking for 2026 to be a breaking-the-doors-down season for her.
Sam Meza – 6
By the dizzying standards already set in this Mezazoic Era, this was a fairly quiet game – which is to say that Sam Meza only had 7 progressive passes, 2 tackles, 3 interceptions, 3 recoveries, and 51 touches. Was she even on the pitch? Part of this was an absolutely revelatory performance by Ainsley McCammon, who simply carried so much of the team performance that Meza could be a little less of everything, everywhere, all at once, but part of this was also Meza just having a quiet night by the benchmarks she's set for herself.
The thing about that is, though, that a quiet night for Sam Meza remains an extremely respectable defensive midfield shift. Also, she wound up and struck a ball from about 28 yards out in the 28th minute, and while she might've had an opportunity to take another touch and find a pass, I don't hate the effort, and I strongly believe that the people deserve a Sam Meza Scorcher.
(I'm the people, I deserve a Sam Meza Scorcher.)
Nérilia Mondésir – 6 (off 75' for Mia Fishel)
Oh, what might have been. That 37th minute strike deserved a goal, rattled the woodwork, and felt like a bad omen in a match the Reign had largely been controlling but nonetheless found themselves trailing. Nérilia didn't quite have the final product, but the process was often really good. She was constantly in the mixer, both creating her own shot and setting up others; from her 25 touches, she had 3 shot-creating actions, 5 progressive carries, and 3 progressive passes. Most importantly, she looked comfortable combining with her teammates, and ready to scrap for the ball all throughout the middle third of the field.
I do also think she was very lucky to avoid a yellow card, as she was whistled five times and could've been whistled a couple more. I've been critical of the way referees have given Coco vastly less leeway than her opponents this season, but in this match, she was given a whole lot of extra grace by Matthew Thompson and she definitely used all of it.
Ainsley McCammon – 7 (POTM)
Hello, Ainsley McCammon!
So I have, in the past, often commented about McCammon seeing the play she needs to make at a stunningly acute level, but not quite executing it in live play. This was not that. This was revelatory, game-driving midfield play from an extremely exciting young prospect. We should not expect play like this from Ainsley every time out, but it's a beautiful glimpse into what we can expect from her over the long course of what looks to be a bright career ahead of her.
She led the team with 11 progressive passes, 4 shot-creating actions, 8 recoveries, 2 shots (both solid looks but unfortunately both off-target), 0.37 xG+A, and 5 defensive contributions. Her field-tilting presence took pressure off Meza to do it all and freed up Mondésir and Adames to get weird and creative, while her vision put teammates into good positions and also saw her popping up to keep things alive and try to finish plays off at opportune moments.
The future, on full display.
Emeri Adames – 6 (off 63' for Jess Fishlock)
Freed up to get weird and creative, Emeri was audacious and incisive, and did a lot of things right in the buildup and run of play. Her best chance of the match was a 42nd minute strike that she did the hard work to set up but didn't get as much of as she might've liked; she also attempted a fairly speculative shot from around 30 yards out early in the second half that failed to challenge Silkowitz. This is, however, another case where the process was good even if the final product didn't emerge while she was on the field.
Emeri was confident on the ball, carrying it forward regularly, using touch and footwork to create space and break past defenders, speed to unbalance the back line, and vision to bring her teammates into the play. Baby Pinoe isn't all the way there yet, but it's not accidental that she's scored six times this season, and she was consistently getting in good positions to score again. Playing off Huitema's shoulder and taking advantage of the half-spaces Huitema's aerial presence provides is a new, and intriguing, wrinkle for Emeri, one I'd like to see her explore further.
Forwards
Jordyn Huitema – 6 (off 63' for Maddie Mercado)
This was a solid outing for Jordyn, and one that reinforces my feeling that much of her struggle with the Reign has been a mix of injuries and style mismatch more than lack of ability. When the team plays on the front foot, uses the width, and puts in crosses, Huitema finds chances and creates space for her teammates; when the team presses aggressively, her strength as a defensive forward shines more.
Huitema's snap header in the 11th minute was a quarter-inch from being a goal, requiring a desperate, acrobatic save from Silkowitz to keep the score level. After that moment, Bay marked Huitema much more aggressively, and while she didn't get another shot on target, her gravity opened space for Emeri Adames, Nérilia Mondésir, and Maddie Dahlien to take solid cracks at Silkowitz' goal. She won 100% of her aerials, and 5 for 8 on duels overall, and led the field in receiving on-ball value, narrowly edging out Kundananji.
If the Reign can play like this consistently, Jordyn will likely contribute more. If not, well, that's a big question for the offseason.
Substitutes
Jess Fishlock – 6 (on 63' for Emeri Adames)
Death, taxes, and Jess Fishlock coming up with the biggest moments when the Reign most need them. What can you even say at this point? She only had eight touches, three completed passes, and one shot.
And she tied the score and secured a point.
Jess Fishlock is eternal. Jess Fishlock is fucking inevitable.
Maddie Mercado – 6 (on 63' for Jordyn Huitema)
After demolishing the USL Super League for six matches (in which time she notched four goals and one assist in 524 minutes), Maddie Mercado made her first appearance back for the Reign and looked like a potential difference maker. While 30ish minutes isn't enough to stake a team on, she offered an intriguing mix of height (she's nearly as tall as Huitema), agility, ball skill, and passing at the forward position.
She had one very good opportunity in the 78th minute, but couldn't keep her shot on target from 9 yards out. Her presence attacking the penalty area didn't demand the same attention or create quite the same space that Huitema's had, but created different opportunities, as Mercado consistently popped up unmarked in dangerous spaces, ready to pounce.
Mia Fishel – 6 (on 75' for Nérilia Mondésir)
Only 15 minutes on the pitch, only seven touches, only two completed passes, but Mia Fishel is in a big way the architect of the game-tying goal. It's Jess Fishlock's incisive forward pass that starts it all off, but Mia recognizes the danger immediately and makes a hard run, dragging multiple defenders with her. By the time Dahlien puts the cross in, Fishel is near the goal line, contesting Silkowitz, Sydney Collins, Brooklyn Courtnall, and Alyssa Malonson all at once, and nonetheless gets her foot to Dahlien's delivery first.
That shot, predictably, didn't make it through – but with so much attention on Fishel, nobody picks up Mercado and Fishlock like ghosts behind her, and Fishlock has plenty of time to recover the rebound, control, and drive a no-chance strike into the back of the net.
Emily Mason – N/A (on 85' for Pheobe McClernon)
Oftentimes, when a player comes on to spell a centerback for five or 10 minutes, they have a relatively quiet shift with little to do. Not so for Emily Mason. The Reign took Phoebe off to shift to a more attacking formation and try to carve out one more big chance before full time (which they succeeded in doing, but McCammon couldn't sink it), and they needed Mason to be an active guard against a lethal counter.
5-plus minutes, 15 touches, 5 clearances, 2 interceptions, and a free kick won to end a Bay FC attack more than did the job.
Lauren Barnes – N/A (but it's a 10) (on 86' for Madison Curry)
A day may come when NWSL fans don't understand what a big deal 250 matches is.
But it is not this day.
Referee
Matthew Thompson – 5
I really liked First-Half Matthew Thompson, who called a fairly tight but very consistent game, not allowing much nipping at heels or tugging at jerseys, whistling assertively, setting his lines, and not letting players cross them. First-Half Matthew Thompson might've warranted a solid 8 on the June/Ash Eden Valkyratings Chart, dizzying heights for a PRO referee to reach.
Unfortunately, Second-Half Matthew Thompson also existed, and we went from fairly tight but very consistent whistling to, as best I can tell, changing his shorts at halftime and forgetting his whistle entirely in the other pair. Both teams benefited and suffered from it; Karlie Lema easily could've seen yellow, as could Huitema and Mondésir. Such is the way of things. He didn't have any truly egregious missed calls, his whistles and lack-thereof didn't prove to be game changers, but my word, what whiplash it was going from the tight and consistent calls of the first half to the inexplicable indifference of the second.
All that said, there's not much to be deeply upset about with this performance, and it's not cause for dread in future games.
And Another Thing!
The Seattle Reign Football Club can secure their return to the postseason with any sort of result against the Utah Royals tonight. After a disaster of a campaign in 2024, they can guarantee at least one more game for the fans. For the city. For the Queen. For Pringle.
Personally, I think they should pile some extra misery on an already-eliminated Utah side, and ideally not allow Mina Tanaka to do this again.
