Looking at the top 10-20 players in both Kickbase and Sofascore, you will find plenty of familiar and expected faces. Dreyer and Berhalter and Tverskov are right up at or near the top, and you won't have to look hard to find Messi and other top attackers like Nico Fernandez and Biel and Bouanga. But you will also find a lot of defenders competing for top spots.
This effect is much more pronounced on Sofascore, where defenders are 3 of the top 5, 5 of the top 10, and 10 of the top 20. On Kickbase, they are still 5 of the top 20. This is a far cry from the old FMLS days where a standout defender like Wagner would be lucky to be in the top 25, with a major gulf between him and other defenders.
The biggest reason for the rise of defenders is the bonus points on offer. While they do get higher points for goals and assists, their bonuses for things like tackles won, duels, passes and long balls boost their scores in ways that generally were not available in the old formats.
As an example, let's look at Nashville CB Jeisson Palacios, whose scores have been very stable week to week. On Kickbase, Week 2 is his lowest scoring week despite a clean sheet. His highest score was last week, where Nashville conceded (-5 for goal conceded and -30 in CS bonus lost) and he earned a yellow card (-10), but that was outweighed by shots blocked (+25), clearances from the box (+15), and a lot of qualifying passes (>22), and of course big team bonuses in +15 for the win and +15 for the three goals scored. The win and goals directly counteracted the lost CS, and his activity in game kept his score high.
The 7/9/7 weekly scores for Palacios on Sofascore tell a similar story. Yes, the clean sheet was a big boost in Week 2, but his bonus points kept his score high in the other games. Against Minnesota this weekend, he got a point each for his rating (+1), long balls, clearances, blocked shots, duels, and total passes. Sofascore is not that generous to attackers – Mukhtar scored just 3 points in that game, as he only hit two positive bonus points for key passes, while he scored quite well on Kickbase for his offensive actions. Attacking players really need those goal contributions on Sofascore to score highly, while defense-minded players can rely on the defensive bonus points to boost their bottom line.
How do we utilize this information going forward? The key is to look for active defenders, especially ones who are involved in the build-up. Players who get on the ball and players who make successful challenges. That is maybe kind of obvious, but I believe it is more important than ever to identify the active defenders on the teams you want to target. Clean sheets are always important and a big source of points, but good defenders can still score well without them. And, of course, if you can find defenders getting regular goal contributions, you are golden.
Week 4 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Freese, Brady, Lloris, Takaoka
Defenders
Gray, Segura, Palacios, Laborda, Mbokazi
Midfielders
Berhalter, Tverskov, Rusnak, Nico Fernandez (Mid/Fwd), AZ (Mid/Fwd) /Cubas, Miranchuk, Mihailovic, M. Ojeda (Mid/Fwd)
Forwards
Messi, Dreyer, Klauss, D. Martinez/Bouanga(KB), White, Werner
Week 4 schedule
The big storylines this week: CCC rotation will hit multiple teams, as after the weekend most everyone is hitting the road. Miami is the only team with a true CCC home game following the weekend, and almost everyone else is facing international travel. Expect far less certainty from those teams' lineups this weekend.
CCC schedule:
3/17: LAFC at Alajuelense
3/18: Miami vs Nashville; Philadelphia at America; Vancouver at Spokane (Seattle); San Diego at Toluca
3/19: LA Galaxy at Mt. Pleasant; Cincinnati at Tigres
The Good
The LA Galaxy host Kansas City. Though the Galaxy have a road trip coming up, I imagine they will not be terribly worried about Mt. Pleasant after taking a (mostly) comfortable 3-0 lead to the road leg. Pec, Klauss and company could find a nice team beating up on another inferior team. SKC has been competitive but are clearly a step below the Western Conference powers at this point.
LAFC hosts St. Louis before hitting the road midweek. LAFC has faced constant double game weeks for multiple seasons and always handles them well. Though they could only manage a frustrating 1-1 draw against Alajuelense at home, they will take the match against St. Louis plenty seriously and likely will have minimal rotation. If St. Louis couldn't score against Seattle at home (who had their starting CB go down injured), I don't really like them to score on the road against LAFC.
NYCFC takes on Colorado this weekend. NYCFC haven't been perfect, but they were able to really take advantage of being a man advantage against Orlando and roughed them up. Colorado had two quality home wins, but they looked uncompetitive on the road against Seattle. My hunch is that road form is the more telling of the two for this matchup. I like NYCFC to earn their third straight win.
The Interesting
Red Bulls, fresh off getting whipped by Montreal, travel to Toronto and what is likely the debut of Josh Sargent. Toronto had been extremely fragile in defense the first two weeks but blanked a listless Cincinnati side last weekend. Will the early form of Bradley's side prove to be a mirage and will Toronto prove to be a contender with reinforcements? Who knows!
Atlanta hosts Philadelphia and Orlando hosts Montreal in two games that could easily end up deciding the Wooden Spoon. Of these four teams, I'd almost be comfortable betting on Atlanta, considering how dreadful Philadelphia has been in the attack and their expected focus on CCC. Orlando could go off if Montreal turns back into a pumpkin, but Montreal could use similar smash and grab tactics that were successful against the Red Bulls to put up multiple goals on a newly coachless Orlando side. And Atlanta is still on zero points, so I wouldn't actually bet on them. If you can pick some good players from these matches, you could be in for major points. Good luck figuring out who it will be this week though!
The Important
Seattle at San Jose will be a big one. Timo Werner will likely make his first start for San Jose and Seattle will be on their fourth road game in row with just a "home" game in Spokane to look forward to in the upcoming week. And despite having every incentive to rest players and make sure the "home" leg against Vancouver is easy, Brian Schmetzer said they are going to San Jose to win. I expect rotation (Schmetzer also said Defiance call-up Antino Lopez might need to start at CB) but key players should start. Still, San Jose are clearly much improved from their history of defensive frailties. Should be a fun match to cap off the weekend.
RSL vs Austin is a big Western Conference showdown. RSL lost at Vancouver but got gutsy wins over Seattle at home and Atlanta on the road. Austin suffered a disappointing 2-2 draw at home against Minnesota, took care of visiting DC United, and fell in a disappointing 3-1 loss to Charlotte where they were red carded and perhaps had some reasonable complaints about the officiating. Both teams are talented enough to make the playoffs safely, but have not proven they can mesh as a team to put that talent to use. I could see this going either way, though it seems oddsmakers really like RSL and their youth movement.
Columbus vs Nashville. Columbus for once are not "distracted" by CCC action, while Nashville has to go and win outright in Miami the following week. Nashville seem the much better side this year so far, as Columbus has only managed to trudge to two points in three games. If Nashville take this one seriously I can see them winning, but you never know this early in the season and with a team as talented as Columbus. Henrik Rydstrom has his work cut out for him trying to replicate Nancy's success.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
NYCFC - As noted above, I think they are significantly better than Colorado and should be one of the more likely teams for a CS this week. Go for Gray.
LAFC - St. Louis have not figured out how to generate chances and I expect this one to look somewhat similar to St. Louis's match at San Diego. I like Segura for this one, as he was rested against Alajuelense with Hollingshead getting a runout (though check the injury report to make sure I didn't miss anything).
Chicago - DC United have just two goals so far. They are bottom five in shots per 90 and rock bottom with just 20% of shots on target. It’s still early days for these stats so that’s a small sample size, but those are not good indicators for a team that's had two of three games at home. Granted, one was a giant stadium game with 72,000+ to watch Messi. Chicago has two consecutive clean sheets and I like them for a third. I'd like Barroso, but he came off injured last week and his replacement Dylan Borso is classed as a mid/fwd. Mbokazi is the best pick as he scores similar to Elliott so far but at a substantially cheaper price.
Vancouver - Their defense has largely been stifling, with very few chances allowed. They'll be looking ahead to the midweek CCC rematch against Seattle but should be very capable on the weekend against Minnesota, considering their slim chances of advancement at this point. There’s definitely rotation risk here, but if you pick right then you'll probably be rewarded. Since Blackmon came out of the midweek match with a knock, let's go for Laborda. You could take Priso as a direct replacement, but I'd wait to see if Blackmon is definitely out on the weekend.
Jeisson Palacios - Assuming Nashville keep him in for this weekend's match, I like him on the squad. He hasn't scored fewer than 7 points of Sofascore and fewer than 114 on Kickbase, despite only having one clean sheet. He's getting great points for passing and is highly active in breaking up the attack. Columbus will probably test him plenty with their possession, and even if Nashville concedes I think he'll have a strong score.
Midfielders
Berhalter/Tverskov - They have established themselves as premium picks in the new scoring systems. They play all the minutes and are fantastic all over the pitch. Teams should start with these two (if you can afford them).
Rusnak - He is largely immune to rotation given how important he is to Seattle. The Sounders can afford to send him out against San Jose to run the attack as they don't quite need as much attack against Vancouver in the home leg and can probably bring him off the bench in that game if it is still close at half. This game will be a big test for San Jose, but Seattle just turned the screws on Vancouver. I like Rusnak here.
Nico Fernandez (Mid/Fwd) - Playing Colorado at home, I like him to continue his hot streak. Only unfortunate note is that it looks like he's giving pens to Maxi Moralez.
Biel - He was ok against Charlotte and actively bad against the Galaxy, then looked like a superstar again while Charlotte was up a man against Austin. He's majorly talented and Charlotte have a run of four more home games coming up. This might be a good time to bring him in. Miami is very good but will certainly be paying more attention to overcoming Nashville midweek.
AZ (Mid/Fwd) / Cubas - These guys were rested against Seattle, likely to the serious detriment of Vancouver. But they've been very solid contributors for Vancouver and should get a full set of minutes this weekend. Their fantasy scores are very decent as well. I like them both.
Miranchuk - His scores Weeks 1 and 2 were awful, but he was massive for Atlanta against RSL, scoring both goals. I suspect Atlanta will get their first win of the year against Philadelphia and Miranchuk will be a big part of that. This is a very risky play, although Atlanta have five of six at home coming up and they are much better at home.
Mihailovic - He has not started off hot, but this week he should get Sargent on the field alongside him. If Sargent hits the ground running, Mihailovic should have some very good games going forward. Plus, for some reason I think Toronto have nine straight home games coming up? What madness is this? If Sargent doesn't start this may be a week early, but I'm definitely interested.
M. Ojeda (Mid/Fwd) - I’m throwing him on here because even though Orlando has struggled, he gets Montreal this week. It didn't work out well for a better team in New York, but I am not convinced that Montreal is suddenly good. I could also easily see a dead cat bounce with Orlando parting ways with Pareja, who clearly was not committed to this season if he wanted out so soon. I don't know if I'm putting him in any of my teams, but he could make a great differential.
Forwards
Messi - I don't know if he's starting, but typically if Messi is healthy and the trip isn't too arduous he's getting a healthy dose of minutes. And plenty of times he's come off the bench and scored a brace anyway. I understand if you skip him this week, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Dreyer - He’s obvious at this point. I don't think San Diego will rotate him for CCC, but that is a slight risk. He's my MVP so far this season and a lock in my lineup for the time being.
Klauss - The Galaxy are finding him in spots to score, and he's generating chances from his forward press. He's exactly what the Galaxy needed to make their offense work without Puig. He still has rough moments where it's clear he's lacking the qualities of more polished, top-tier strikers. And he'd be missing Pec this weekend (assuming Klauss isn't rotated) who earned a stupid red against Colorado. But Klauss can make it work especially against SKC.
D. Martinez/Bouanga (KB) - Martinez came off the bench against Alajuelense and so I expect he's given the start this weekend against St. Louis. He's also outscored Son and Bouanga on Sofascore. Bouanga meanwhile has massive scores on Kickbase (partially because he's scored as a Midfielder so far) and disappointing ones on Sofascore. Bouanga is almost never rotated, so he should be good. LAFC might protect Son's minutes so he's fresh in Costa Rica, but he could go off in this one as well. But I like the other two guys a little better.
White - Another player Vancouver rested against Seattle, he should be in against Minnesota and I can easily see him continuing his hot streak in league play. There are some promising games coming up for him as well.
Timo Werner - He likely gets his first start with San Jose and gets the benefit of a road-weary Seattle missing basically all of their natural CBs. Seattle did play fantastic against the Whitecaps, but if Jackson Ragen is out, then Defiance loanee Antino Lopez will have to step in alongside Alex Roldan to be the CB pairing. Werner has had an assist off the bench in both his outings so far. He could have a very nice week, though I wouldn't expect more than maybe 60 minutes from him.
Captain Considerations
Messi - Obvious choice for good reason. Others might be better this week, but he's always a threat outscore everyone by a mile.
Dreyer - Another obvious choice. San Diego is good on the road, though they have not had to do as many double-game weeks as others and I'm not sure how they'll handle rotation. I still like Dreyer anyway.
Berhalter - I think Vancouver takes out their frustrations on Minnesota. Berhalter usually dominates the midfield and when he's on point he is very strong getting involved in the attack (like his G+A in Portland). Muller or White could be the choice here, but Berhalter has a nice floor to work from.
Segura - Keeping in line with the theme of the article, I'm going to start throwing defenders in here. Segura was rested while Hollingshead got a turn midweek, so he should be back out there at LB or LWB against a weak St. Louis side. Strange things happen every week, but I think it's highly likely LAFC gets their fourth-straight clean sheet (in league play, at least). He's the 12th highest scorer on Kickbase and the 9th highest on Sofascore, and that's without any goal contributions propping up his score. So don't be afraid to cap him, or another defender you really like this week.
Finest Fifteen
My personal top-choice formation with 2GK, 4/5 Def, 4/5 Mid, 4 Fwd
Messi(c) - Dreyer - Klauss - White
Berhalter - Tverskov - Nico Fernandez - Biel
Gray - Segura - Mbokazi - Laborda - Palacios
Lloris - Takaoka
