There's been nothing major in fantasy land the past week or so, as we were subjected to some good and lots of bad national team performances. But one change I wanted to highlight is Kickbase's positional system. They used the break to move about a dozen players into different positions, with the details in an article on their app. As far as I am aware, Sofascore has not spent the time (or attention) on andjusting any player positions.
So, for Kickbase, what went into it? Well, they are trying to use Opta's determination of what position a player is actually taking to apply the appropriate points for that player's scores. That is why Jesus Ferreira occupies a forward spot in your Kickbase roster but scores points as a midfielder. And so using Opta's determinations along with some of their own analysis, they have moved some players around (while not touching others).
It does lead to some questions, like why Zavier Gozo moving to midfield when his teammate and mirror on the field, J. M. Sanabria, remains a defender? Same goes for why Echenique remains a defender and Ramirez has moved from forward to midfield with them playing essentially the same position on different sides of the pitch? Why is Ricketts of San Jose still a defender, despite only being used at LM so far this year?
One of the considerations I learned in speaking to some of the Kickbase staff is what positions the players have played in the past and what they believe they might play in the future. Ricketts was not changed as he may now be the primary backup at LB and historically played outside back. For Gozo, he was not moved all the way to defender since he has played winger in the past and could theoretically be moved back there in the future.
Another question is what makes a wingback a defender or a midfielder? It seems Opta thinks they are midfielders, so why are plenty of them still defenders? It is not totally clear to me, but I know we would all appreciate consistency in how players are treated.
At the end of the day, remember that Kickbase scores players based on their actual position on the field (as determined by Opta). So if, for example, Kossa-Rienzi subs on for Rothrock and stays in a winger position, any goals he scores will be midfielder goals instead of defender goals. I am not sure how this knowledge really helps us in picking fantasy teams, but it does help in understanding why certain players are over or under valued.
Week 6 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Cabral, Kahlina, Freese, Lloris, Takaoka, Thomas
Defenders
Glad (Sofa)/Sanabria (KB), Toffolo, Gray, Porteous, Ocampo/Laborda/Blackmon, Palacios, Nouhou
Midfielders
Nico Fernandez (M/F), Biel, Guilherme (M/F), Espinoza (M/F)/Mukhtar, Berhalter, Carmona, Choiniere, Tverskov, Gozo
Forwards
Messi, Surridge, Owusu, White, Guilavogui, Musa, Navarro, Bouanga (KB)
Week 6 schedule
Take note of the CCC action coming up for a few important teams: Nashville and LAFC have home matches on Tuesday, 4/7, while Seattle and the Galaxy are on the road on Wednesday, 4/8. It's hard to say exactly how much rotation these teams will have, but I would expect some. Nashville and Seattle are on the road on Saturday, while LAFC and the Galaxy are at home. We could see Surridge and Mukhtar come off the bench again, and Son is coming back from international duty and could see reduced minutes. Some big questions.
The Good
RSL hosts Kansas City this weekend. RSL has not lost since week 1 at Vancouver, and has scored at least two goals in every game during that span. SKC deservedly sits at the bottom of the Western Conference (I see one website has them at 1.8 expected points). Pretty good situation for RSL believers.
Charlotte gets to play Philadelphia this week, the actual worst team in the league by points (they have zero). Charlotte has taken advantage of a bunch of red cards against them, but they seem like a much more threatening and competent side than whatever this new version of Philadelphia has morphed into. Could be a nice day for Charlotte across the board after ripping New York for six goals and putting away Austin 3-1 a month back.
LAFC hosts Orlando this week, almost certainly the biggest mismatch of the week. Orlando has allowed 17 goals in just five games, and the underlying numbers support their position as the worst defense in the league. I would not be surprised if Orlando stops LAFC's clean sheet streak, but I do expect at least a couple of LAFC goals.
Vancouver versus Portland happens this weekend. With full attention back on league play, Vancouver has a get-right game against Portland's flailing squad. Portland is only ahead of SKC at the bottom of the West on the GD tiebreaker, and Portland has allowed the most goals in the West and third-most in the league. And don't forget that Vancouver tore them apart at Providence Park a month ago. They did have a lot of international absences, but I think Vancouver stamps Portland out again.
The Interesting
Miami hosts Austin this weekend, in Miami's first league home match of the year at their brand new "Nu Stadium". I expect this game to be a spectacle. Austin have one win, two draws and two losses so far, with both losses on the road and one of them (at Charlotte) while playing down a man for the majority. Despite some uneven play and having every league game on the road so far, Miami still sit third in the East. And now they have the "benefit" of ignoring CCC. Still though, RDP and Messi traveled and played some for Argentina and a handful of other players were also out for international duty. I think Miami puts out a full strength lineup for this one, but it's up in the air. I also think Austin will put in a good shift (they have scored in 4/5 matches, though I think ultimately lose this one).
NYCFC hosts St. Louis this weekend, which looks like a complete mismatch on paper. NYCFC is second in the East and St. Louis is stuck on four points alongside Portland and SKC. But St. Louis has severely underperformed on their underlying stats, while NYCFC has overperformed slightly. ASA says St. Louis has an expected points of 8.61, better than LAFC, just one point behind NYCFC at 9.65 expected points. Don't be surprised if this one is more competitive than it looks on paper.
The Major
The Red Bulls play Cincinnati this weekend. I usually reserve this section for heavyweight games with top teams competing, but I think this is a big one. Both of these sides had some very good and encouraging results earlier this year, but have gone into somewhat of a tailspin lately. Between CCC and MLS play, Cincinnati has given up like 13 goals in their last three or four games. The Red Bulls have allowed 10 goals in their last three games. I'm very interested to see whether this will be a blowout one way or the other, or if both teams focus on defense and keep this a cagey affair. For very similar energy, see also New England hosting Montreal.
San Jose hosts San Diego this weekend, a biiiig test for both squads. San Diego has had some struggles their past few games, between getting crushed on the road in Mexico (wasting their heroic win at home despite being down on players) and a couple of disappointing ties to Dallas and RSL. Still, San Diego is unbeaten in MLS play. San Jose's only hiccup so far has been their failure to crack Seattle in Week 4, putting up more than 2 xG compared to 0.5 xG against but still losing 1-0 and conceding the only goal they have given up so far this year. This will be a fun one, though I do think a big part of it comes down to how sharp Anders Dreyer will be coming off a disappointing loss in World Cup qualifying with Denmark. Dreyer was not needed in their 4-0 win over North Macedonia, but came on in the 82nd minute against Czechia, provided a game-tying assist ET on a corner, then was one of three Danes to miss their PK.
Thoughts and Players
Note that on Kickbase a handful of players have had their positions adjusted. There's an article in app showing who has been changed with their reasoning. Some players may not be where you expect them, like Gozo and Rosales.
Defenses
Real Salt Lake - Kansas City can score, but can they do it at altitude against a team as strong as RSL? I think on Sofascore the guy you want is Glad, while on Kickbase you go with Sanabria (a mid on Sofascore).
Charlotte - Philadelphia has been verrry bad in the attack. Charlotte can probably handle them. Pick Toffolo.
NYCFC - As much as I was chatting up St. Louis above, NYCFC still have a good defense, led in fantasy this year by Tayvon Gray.
LAFC - I expressed concern above that Orlando busts LAFC's clean sheet streak, but I do think picking up LAFC defense is still a smart play. The guy to pick is Porteous.
Vancouver - My hesitation here is Vancouver's international absences and injuries, plus Portland knows how to make it weird in Cascadia matches. Still, this game is a mismatch and Vancouver is a reasonable bet. Honestly I have no idea who to pick between Ocampo, Blackmon, or Laborda. They all have their strengths and any of them could be benched. I think Blackmon is a lock to start, while the others often outscore him if they play the full match. I'd be willing to risk it on Laborda now that Vancouver is not dealing with CCC congestion.
Some of road defenders I like individually are Palacios and Nouhou. I am not thinking either is highly likely for a clean sheet, and there's rotation risk of Palacios sitting like he did between Nashville's games against Miami or of Nouhou ahead of Seattle's Mexico trip. But both these players have been racking up bonus points lately and generally serving as a key cog in possession with some danger going forward.
Midfielders
Nico Fernandez (Mid/Fwd) - Major hot streak, he's what's keeping NYCFC at the top. He's taken some time to get used to the league, but is now looking every bit the game-changing playmaker he was brought in to be. Plus he scores, to boot.
Biel - Big game opportunity against Philadelphia. He has struggled in some games, as Charlotte have not fared as well when playing 11v11 against some good teams, but could be in for another monster one.
Guilherme (Mid/Fwd) - He's been stellar for Houston. Seattle's defense may be tougher to crack, but they are not immune to giving up opportunities. Easy pick.
Espinoza (Mid/Fwd)/Mukhtar - There's a serious rotation risk, but Nashville's had such a deadly attack this year the risk may be worthwhile, even on the road.
Berhalter - Having come off an 80-minute appearance for the US he might get some rest, but I think a guy like him has plenty of motor to step right in and play the majority of the match against Portland.
Carmona - He's been excellent for Montreal their past three games after being downright terrible in their first two. Montreal is still on the road, but this one is at New England. If you want a risky but low-cost option, I like Carmona.
Choiniere - We learned this week that Eustaquio is back with his parent team, FC Porto, to rehab the blood clot that has sidelined him for a couple of weeks. As his original timeline for return was 2-4 weeks as of two weeks ago, I think we are looking at the longer end of things. Choiniere is his fill-in and has been playing pretty nicely for himself. Picking him or Delgado is a nice way to get some good production on a budget out of the midfield.
Tverskov - Lost some time in league play due to rotation, but he should be back out there for SD this weekend dictating play. They can sure use him.
Gozo - He's been very solid for RSL and is the highest-scoring midfielder in fantasy for them this year. It will be interesting to see how the field tilts when Luna is back out there, if that opens up more space for Gozo or if Luna takes all the attacking duties upon himself. But for at least this weekend I like Gozo (plus he's wayyy cheaper than Luna).
Forwards
Messi - I know he's been a major dud in some outings, and just barely got in a goal against NYCFC with a fortunate deflection by the wall, but he is still Messi. Kickbase had him as the fourth-highest scoring player in Week 5, despite just one goal. Miami is back to focusing on the league and Miami now gets to play home games at their new stadium. I think Mascherano will want to put on a show for this one and will unleash Messi for as many minutes as he can handle. I know there's been international duty and travel, so I probably would not put the captain on him without being able to move it later, but it is still Messi.
Surridge - This man is a freak. He does nothing but score goals. He's well on his way to a deserved golden boot.
Owusu - He had an insane 20-point game on Sofascore against Cincinnati and has four goals in three games. Like Carmona, his last three performances compared to the first two matches are night and day. At New England, he's got a good chance to keep the goal streak rolling.
White - Vancouver is at home playing Portland. This is easy.
Guilavogui - RSL is at home playing SKC. Guilavogui does not have a goal yet, but he does have two assists in his 322 minutes and his xG/96 is at 0.56, just behind Messi at 0.59 and ahead of Dreyer at 0.50. He missed the first game of the season and was just a sub against Seattle but made a big impact. I expect the goals are coming and this game could be where they start.
Musa - DC has been tough to score on and Dallas is on the road, but Musa has still been carrying Dallas on his back, coming off the bench at halftime against Houston and creating the chances/scoring that gave Dallas their late, late winner.
Navarro - Colorado has been very dangerous lately and, as usual, Navarro is at the center of attention. 5 G+A in the past three games. Playing at Toronto will be tougher than Colorado's recent matchups, but he was still solid at NYCFC. Strong differential.
Bouanga (KB) - His scores on Kickbase form a nice stairway down: 327 - 179 - 111 - 85 - 38. His Sofascore totals are very bad after Week 1: 14 - 0 - 2 - 2 - 0. But, this week is Orlando week. If he's going to get on track for the MVP-level performance that he's capable of, this would be the time. I'm a little worried about Son with his international travel and CCC coming up, but he could be a nice option as well. Long term, I think both these guys will still be great, they just need to get back on track.
Captain considerations
Messi - He's in here every week for a reason. Kickbase loves him. Sofascore isn't as conducive to awarding his play, but I expect his goal contributions to go up significantly with more emphasis on league play going forward.
White - Portland has a shambolic defense and Vancouver already put four up against them a month ago.
Nico Fernandez - He's just playing too well, even if St. Louis brings a strong challenge.
Glad (Sofa) - An early defender captain option for Sofascore.
Berhalter (KB) - I'm expecting him back in the starting lineup against Portland, and, if you aren't willing to bet on White, you can probably bet on Berhalter dominating the game.
Finest Fifteen
Messi - White - Guilavogui - Bouanga
Nico Fernandez - Berhalter - Biel - Tverskov - Guilherme
Glad/Sanabria - Gray - Porteous - Nouhou
Cabral - Lloris
