Back in April amidst a banner start to their Major League Soccer season, Seattle Sounders head coach Brian Schmetzer bristled at a post-game question about his rotation and larger lineup management during a tricky two-game week.
“I’m gonna try and break that narrative before I leave the club at some point," he said. "People are going to say I sub because it’s the right time to sub.”
His reaction immediately struck me. Not only for the clapback but also the unflinching confidence in his delivery of that clapback to a room full of reporters. The persistent criticism of waiting too long to introduce changes had seemingly burrowed under his otherwise thick skin and he wasn’t going to let it stand.
He called the question, so let’s give it a go: Was Schmetz in fact beating the allegations as he claimed? Was he changing his old ways? Were his subs making an impact? Has he been getting results with scrambled lineups?
Old Dogs, New Tricks
Let’s start by asking ourselves whether the larger criticism was even valid in the first place and what that looked like.
In the Sounders’ second MLS Cup-winning campaign in 2019 — the final year before the shift from three to five total substitutes being available and Brian’s high-water mark for waiting to make his first substitution — his first change was on average in the 64th minute and the second sub not until the 75th minute. Even in 2023, with five subs having been allowed for a few years prior, those tendencies still hadn’t shifted that much.
In 2026, by contrast, his average second sub is coming in the 63rd minute a full 12 minutes earlier than three years prior and a minute earlier than even his previous first sub. Whether we’ve quite clocked it or not, an evolution has been happening.
Excluding games with a first-half substitution — which we’re throwing out as involuntary outliers for this analysis — on average the Sounders’ first substitution is now the third earliest initial sub among MLS teams (we are definitely coming back to those outliers). The Sounders’ average third substitution, occurring in the 68th minute, is the earliest in MLS. Both Sounders’ second and third substitutions are now occurring 10 minutes earlier on average than they did just two seasons ago in 2024. The Sounders’ average fourth sub is also among the earliest in MLS.
At least lately, Brian’s capacity for switching it up compares favorably to the rest of the league. His 2023 numbers would have put him at the back of the pack, and now he’s near the front in making early tactical substitutions.
It’s certainly arguable how much of the shift toward earlier subs has been voluntary rather than forced by unfortunate realities. As late as last year both Georgi Minoungou & Reed Baker-Whiting suffered from being underutilized and found new teams who could promise them more minutes. Over the years, Brian’s reluctance to rely on his depth has meant very little direct output from those bench appearances for seasons at a time.
