First off, an immediate reminder that MLS kicks off this week tonight, Thursday, 4:30pm Pacific with Atlanta visiting NYCFC. There is also a Friday game and games all day Saturday (overlapping with the CWC kickoff match between Miami and Al Ahly). Sunday will see the CWC in full swing, including our Seattle Sounders against Botafogo. But we're not here to focus on that.
MLS will be once again hit heavy by international absences, primarily for the Concacaf Gold Cup, though there are a few others missing. You can see the Gold Cup absences by club here: Concacaf Gold Cup rosters. Fantasy-relevant guys missing include Ageymang and Ream (CLT), Brady (CHI), Robinson (CIN), McGlynn (HOU), Oluwaseyi, Harvey, Rosales and St. Clair (MIN), Sealy (MTL), Zimmerman (NSH), Freese and Martinez (NYCFC), Freeman (ORL), Sullivan and Blake (PHI), Luna (RSL), and White, Berhalter and Ahmed (VAN). This is not an exhaustive list and various other players are returning from midweek international games and may be rested for the weekend. As always, check the availability report and–even better–watch the lineups as they are posted.
Week 17 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Roman Burki (STL 7.2m), Andrew Rick (PHI 6.3m), Brad Stuver (ATX 9.0m), Jonathan Bond (HOU 7.0m), Rafael Cabral (RSL 7.5m)
Defenders
Tomas Totland (STL 8.3m), Kai Wagner (PHI 11.9m), Brendan Hines-Ike (ATX 8.6m), Griffin Dorsey (HOU 9.0m), Alexandros Katranis (RSL 5.1m)
Midfielders
Evander (13.6m), Anders Dreyer (13.2m), Carles Gil (13.1m), Hany Mukhtar (13.0m), Djordje Mihailovic (12.3m), Philip Zinckernagel (11.4m), David Da Costa/Santiago Moreno/Antony (10.7m/10.3m/10.1m), Hannes Wolf (NYC 9.3m), Daniel Salloi (SKC 9.1m), Amine Bassi/Ondrej Lingr/Nicolas Lodeiro (HOU 7.6m/7.5m/4.6m)
Forwards
Cristian Arango (13.1m), Diego Rossi (12.5m), Hugo Cuypers (12.0m), Sam Surridge (11.5m), Dejan Joveljic (10.7m), Julian Fernandez (7.2m)
Week 17 schedule
Bye: Seattle, LAFC, Miami, Toronto
First up is NYCFC vs Atlanta on Thursday (tonight?) at 4:30pm. NYCFC is in 10th place and will be missing their top keeper and striker, but they could theoretically move to as high as 5th place with a win. Things are tight on the bubble in the East. Atlanta is eight points behind that pace, and that's after two wins in their past three. Atlanta had great home wins over Cincinnati and Orlando and then promptly left a dud away to NYRB. These teams are a mystery to me week to week, but I think even with Freese and Martinez missing you don't mind betting against Atlanta on the road.
Then on Friday we have Portland hosting San Jose at 7:30pm. I’m very interested to see what happens here. There’s high potential for fireworks, though San Jose has not quite done what I expected of them the past two games out there. These are good teams and it should be an interesting match, especially if Arango is back and able to lead San Jose’s attack.
Saturday’s early game is St. Louis vs. LA Galaxy at 1:30pm. I’m sure there will be some points scored in this one, but these are still the two worst teams in the West. The Galaxy did finally get their first win before the international break, so maybe a turnaround is in order.
At 4:30pm in the Saturday Night slate, we have Columbus facing Vancouver, New England against Cincinnati, and Philadelphia vs. Charlotte. The Revs are unbeaten in nine and can (will?) put the hurt on a reeling Cincinnati. Vancouver is weakened but have shown time and again how resilient their team is this year (besides in the game that mattered most), though Nancy’s teams have been able to solve plenty of elite teams themselves. And both Philadelphia and Charlotte will be missing key pieces but should still put on a show.
5:30pm is time for Austin hosting NYRB, Chicago vs Nashville, Houston against Montreal, Kansas City facing Dallas, and San Diego’s introduction to Minnesota. A lot of interesting stuff here, mostly even matchups with 7th in the West against 6th in the East plus 3rd hosting 2nd and 12th hosting 11th in the West. Houston vs. Montreal might be the only real mismatch here. The Texas defenses could be interesting, and I like the shootout potential in Chicago. Minnesota vs SD will be an interesting test of styles as SD will likely be on the ball a lot, like they prefer, and Minnesota will play against that and counter (effectively?).
6:30pm has the last two games of the week, Colorado vs. Orlando and Salt Lake facing DC. I’m a little worried about Colorado – their only wins since April 12th came at home against the 13th and 14th place teams in the West. Besides those two games it has been five losses recently. And although RSL has been down in the league this year, the only time DC has won at RSL was way back in RSL’s inaugural season in 2005. I think Benteke is really DC’s only hope here though I strongly doubt he is fit enough to be a difference maker in this tough fixture.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
St. Louis – I don't have particularly high hopes for St. Louis in this one – both teams are bad, but the game is early and the Galaxy are on the road so it might be worth an early speculative play. If you want in go with Burki and Tomas Totland (8.3m).
Philadelphia – Charlotte are missing Ageymang, who has proven to be their most effective and important attacker this year, despite Zaha's widely touted signing. Charlotte did win in Toronto and Philly are missing some important players themselves, but Philly is top of the Eastern Conference for good reason. Take Kai Wagner (11.9m). Note of course that Blake is out with injury.
Austin – NYRB may be getting Lewis Morgan back, which will help their attack tremendously, but Austin is still a good defensive team playing at home in the heat. I like Brendan Hines-Ike (8.6m) a bit more than Guilherme Biro (8.5m), but either are reasonable.
Houston – Hosting Montreal is a good place for a defense to be this year. Montreal is even missing some of their decent players on an already thin roster. Griffin Dorsey (9.0m) is back after suspension and a very high upside play. He had 10 KPs and 6 shots on target his last outing.
Real Salt Lake – DC United have to travel cross country to altitude with a weak offense and Benteke out or not 100%. That seems like as good a matchup as you can ask for (though DC has scored in three straight matches, this is not a slam dunk). As noted, DC is historically bad at RSL, almost as bad as Seattle. With Justen Glad away from the squad, I think Alexandros Katranis (5.1m) is perhaps the best remaining option.
Midfielders
Evander (13.6m) – He's at New England, which can be a tough matchup, but he's got a ceiling as high as anyone. Perhaps a bench play these days given that four of his last eight games he's scored 4 points or fewer, but still a strong consideration every week.
Anders Dreyer (13.2m) – With Minnesota content to cede possession, Dreyer will have time on the ball to rack up KPs. Maybe not the most likely goal contributor this week, but I would bet he gets at least 8 KPs and 4 shots at goal.
Carles Gil (13.1m) – Cincy's weak defense is coming to town and is missing Robinson. Great week to be a Gil fan.
Hany Mukhtar (13.0m) – At Chicago is a very enticing road matchup. He's been one of the most consistent guys lately and I see no reason to avoid him this week.
Djordje Mihailovic (12.3m) – A monstrous 19 KP, 6 Cross game against Austin last week gave him 8 points despite no goal contributions in a 0-2 loss. Tough result for the team but Djordje is trying to enforce his will on the game. Orlando will probably be a tougher opponent but he's a top pick in a slightly thin week.
Philip Zinckernagel (11.4m) – With a 10-point average over his last three matches, he has been at the heart of Chicago's recent success. That said, there's been some rumors he's out this week, so perhaps go Brian Gutierrez instead.
David Da Costa/Santiago Moreno/Antony (10.7m/10.3m/10.1m) – It’s impossible to guess which of these three goes off from week to week. Last week it was Antony with an incredible strike and Moreno with a great assist, while Da Costa just kind of shuffled around the field for 2 points. But they get San Jose this week so it’s not a bad idea to try and hit the roulette correctly this week. I like Moreno, as he has had at least five points in every game he has gone more than 45 minutes (he played one half at Orlando) going back to week 9.
Hannes Wolf (NYC 9.3m) – Three goals in the past two weeks, and now he plays Atlanta at home. Might be worth a Thursday punt.
Daniel Salloi (SKC 9.1m) – He's been earning BPs and is most likely to score big for SKC. This week is Dallas at home, who have been struggling recently, even more than SKC.
Amine Bassi/Ondrej Lingr/Nicolas Lodeiro (HOU 7.6m/7.5m/4.6m) – With McGlynn out, one of these three will have to shoulder the primary creative responsibilities for Houston against Montreal. At NYC, where Houston won 3-0, it was Lodeiro putting in a vintage shift with 8 KPs and 6 points without a goal contribution over 89 minutes. The other two have had some rough games recently but have been in McGlynn's shadow. I think one of them could break out for a strong differential.
Forwards
Cristian Arango (13.1m) – If he's healthy he's one of the best in the league right now. It may be a week too early to take him, but he's certainly capable even in limited minutes (this assumes he plays at all).
Diego Rossi (12.5m) – I think Nancy and Columbus can solve Vancouver with so many missing pieces. I also think Vancouver's massive win over Seattle was more due to Seattle being unable to attack Vancouver's defense and being very sloppy defensively, rather than Vancouver being unbeatable. Rossi in the driver's seat for a goal or two given Nancy's possession-based system likely able to carve through Vancouver's missing midfield in ways Seattle could not/would not do. Maybe that is cope, but I still like Rossi this week.
Hugo Cuypers (12.0m) – He was absent and Tom Barlow of all people went off. Chicago can make things happen and should have some big opportunities at home against Nashville.
Sam Surridge (11.5m) – Five goals in three games. He can't keep up that pace, surely? I suppose against Chicago anything can happen. Now that I am taking him again he'll probably blank but I still like this match for him.
Dejan Joveljic (10.7m) – Goals in four straight games, he's right there in the six-way tie for third in the golden boot race. A home match against Dallas seems a good chance for his streak to continue.
Julian Fernandez (7.2m) – He has a reasonable 5.4 average in games he goes 60+ minutes. He'll likely need to do so tonight with Alonso Martinez out. A reasonably priced first-match bench play that could pay dividends.
Captain considerations
Carles Gil – Home game against a reeling Cincinnati defense is a good time for him to get back on track. Some kind of middling outings lately, but he's certainly capable of more weeks reeling off double digit fantasy points.
Hany Mukhtar – He's on the road but Chicago's defense can be accommodating. You could go for Surridge instead for a higher ceiling, but I like Mukhtar's floor.
Santiago Moreno (or whoever from Portland) – I think if you pick correctly of the Portland attackers, it could be a very profitable week for you. As noted above, I like Moreno for his consistency.
