Hey friends, we sure do have a whopper of a double-game week coming up. Only four teams have single games, so there are a ton of different options this week and combinations of players you could run. There are a few universally attractive options, some sneaky plays you might have discounted, and some players in tough matchups that will likely still shine anyway. It’s an exciting week with a lot of potential to move up (or down) the leaderboards.
Week 21 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Kristijan Kahlina (6.8m), Andre Blake (7.4m), Andrew Thomas (4.5m), CJ Dos Santos (7.8m)
Defenders
Adilson Malanda (7.6m), Kai Wagner (12.1m), Alex Freeman (10.6m), Andy Najar (9.6m), Jackson Ragen (7.5m) (YCW), Christopher McVey (8.9m)
Midfielders
Anders Dreyer (15.2m), Evander (14.7m), Hany Mukhtar (14.7m), Martin Ojeda (14.4m), Pep Biel (13.3m), Albert Rusnak (13.1m), Philip Zinckernagel (12.9m), Carles Gil (15.0m), David Da Costa (10.8m), Jack McGlynn (12.1m), Marco Reus (11.4m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (14.8m), Sam Surridge (13.1m), Hugo Cuypers (11.9m), Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (11.4m), Denis Bouanga (12.5m), Chucky Lozano (10.7m), Jesus Ferreira (8.8m), Idan Toklomati (CLT 5.2m)
Week 21 schedule
Two home: NYR, ATL, HOU, NSH, SEA, POR, SDFC
Split games: CLT, CIN, NER, ORL, PHI, MIN, LAFC, CLB, LAG, RSL, SJE, DAL
Two away: DCU, MIA, NYC, MTL, CHI, VAN, TOR
Single: COL (Wed), ATX (Wed), SKC (Sat), STL (Sat)
Atlanta: One of the teams I am most interested in this week, though I am not sure whether I am targeting them or taking them. They have manageable games at home against Chicago and Charlotte, but they have gone winless in their most recent five games, with two unremarkable draws against DC and Toronto and uncompetitive losses to NYRB, NYCFC and Columbus. Before that stretch they had two wins at home against Cincinnati and Orlando where they scored 4 and 3 goals, respectively. On the other hand, those were their only two wins over the past 15(!) games and half of their win total on the year. This is not a good team, but they have earned occasional good results. I probably will not have any Atlanta players and will be cautious about overly targeting them, but they have only held a clean sheet twice this year. Will be interesting games.
Houston: After a couple of good wins where they looked to be getting it together, they put in a disappointing 1-1 loss at RSL last week. Still, Jack McGlynn returned to the lineup and had 7 points without a goal contribution, largely from his 17 KPs. The games this week will be tough as Houston hosts Vancouver and Philadelphia, but with Vancouver on the downswing we could see some good results from Houston. Or at least some good fantasy points from McGlynn, as no one else has been consistent enough to warrant consideration.
Nashville: Big game hosting Columbus in what will be a 6-pointer as these two teams are tied with 41 points in 3rd/4th in the East, just two points behind Philadelphia in first and one point behind Cincinnati in second. A repeat of their earlier meeting in Columbus, a 2-2 draw, would be reasonable. Then Nashville host Toronto on the weekend. A great schedule and a team to utilize this week across the fantasy positions.
Seattle: Hosting Colorado and San Jose. Very winnable games for the Sounders if they can avoid becoming a record-setting recipient of red cards. Note that the Wednesday night game kicks off at 7pm, rather than 7:30pm, so lineups there lock a little earlier than you might otherwise expect. These games look like 2-1 or 3-1 wins to me, though San Jose has given Seattle a lot of trouble in the past. I'll still have two or three Sounders anyway.
Portland: They get Salt Lake and Minnesota. Only LAFC has earned more home points in the West than the Timbers. RSL comes in on a 4-game undefeated streak, with three home wins and a road draw at SKC. The Timbers will prove a much tougher test for RSL and the home side will rightfully be favored. Minnesota proves a much tougher opponent. Minnesota has just four losses on the year and has six road wins. Portland's underlying numbers suggest they should not be nearly as high in the table as they are and I am predicting another Minnesota road win in that one.
San Diego: They get Toronto on Wednesday and then the reeling Whitecaps playing their fifth league road game in a row. I am expecting big things from San Diego this week, especially considering SD was able to run over the Whitecaps in Vancouver, 5-3.
Charlotte: They get DC at home to start the week and then at Atlanta. I very much like their attackers, particularly Pep Biel. And it could be a great week to put a Charlotte defender or two on the bench to feel out a week-opening home CS and then pivot to a different starting defender if they don't hold against DC.
Philadelphia: At home against Montreal to open the week, another team to potentially use on the bench for the first game and replace them in the starting lineup if they don't work out against Montreal. They will head to Houston for a good opportunity for points, but you'd imagine the bulk of their points will likely come at home. Montreal will be missing perhaps their best player, CB George Campbell, to a pending transfer and they were already a pretty poor team. Of course, Montreal has seven points in their last five games, has not been shut out in that span, and has only been shut out once in their past 12 games, which is why a bench play to start is probably warranted.
LAFC: On the road at Minnesota and then home against the Galaxy. El Trafico is pretty much always a barnburner, so any points at Minnesota will be a bonus. Of course, with how Minnesota has played this year, this could be like taking a SGW team. And LAFC has good backups to cover, but missing Aaron Long will stretch the team and make rotation harder.
Minnesota: If LAFC rotate, this could be a great week for Minnesota. It still might be anyway. They lost 1-0 at LAFC to open the season, but Minnesota has a much more defined style of play at this point and could very easily flip the script on LAFC. And I believe they can use their style to hit the Timbers defense on the counter on the road. I think they could be great differential picks.
Galaxy: Finally looking somewhat like the MLS Cup winners, they have three wins and just one loss in their past six games. First up is a winnable game for the "real" Galaxy against Austin, and then the always crazy El Trafico. Earlier this year in the middle of their worst run of games they still managed a 2-2 draw against LAFC. Galaxy offense is very tempting this week.
Chicago: They are away to Atlanta and Montreal this week. Chicago has been a fairly strong road team this year, scoring 29 road goals mostly through a couple of blowouts. I doubt they have any trouble scoring goals this week, though Atlanta and Montreal are perfectly capable of scoring their own.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Charlotte: They host DC first, then play at Atlanta. A big opportunity to pick a Charlotte defender for your bench from the early games and then bank the CS and let it ride for Saturday. And if that doesn't work, you can pivot to a defender from the night set of games. There is not much to distinguish the defenders, so I'd go with Adilson Malanda (7.6m) for the relative certainty on minutes and potential involvement on set pieces.
Philadelphia: Defense is a major reason they are leading the Supporters’ Shield race at the moment. They have allowed the fewest goals in the league and are tied for the league lead in clean sheets. First up for them is Montreal then away to Houston. The obvious choice is Kai Wagner (12.1m), who is a top-15 fantasy player overall, with higher average points than guys like Hartel, Espinoza, Cuypers and Joveljic. If you want to double up, then Nathan Harriel (9.1m) is back from the Gold Cup and a decent second option.
Alex Freeman (10.6m): I am not particularly inspired by Orlando's clean sheet chances this week considering their struggles and fixtures (vs NYCFC and at NER) but Freeman is an elite attacking fullback and Orlando has reasonable shots at clean sheets in both games.
Andy Najar (9.6m): Tough game against the Crew, but the follow up is Toronto. And Najar is providing some real attacking returns as one of the best right backs in the league. If Najar plays both matches, he will probably be a top-10 option at the position for the week. There is some rotation risk – he's not a locked in 90/90 player – but his ceiling may be worthwhile to take the risk.
Seattle: The Rapids have not won at Lumen Field since 2016. That's really the only reason Seattle is on here, as there are many indicators that the defense could have a tough week. Still, they have two winnable home games which gives them a leg up on other later options in my mind. Not a great week for clear-cut good defensive teams and schedules. The best option is Jackson Ragen (7.5m) who will almost certainly go 90/90 given the CB injury issues. Of course, he is on YCW so you could end up skunked, and I am not super confident in any other defender definitely getting two starts. I'd love to pick Kalani Kossa-Rienzi for attacking returns but I have no idea if he'll even play a full 90 minutes between the two games.
San Diego: They have struggled as of late, but a visit from Toronto could cure many ills and the Whitecaps seem to have lost Michael’s Secret Stuff. Perhaps Brian White being back helps, but losing Vite and all the other injuries have taken their toll. The best option here is Christopher McVey (8.9m) for his minutes and passing bonus points giving a nice floor.
Midfielders
Anders Dreyer (15.2m): Double-digit points in four of his last five matches, and well-earned. He should probably be the second name on everyone's teams with a good schedule this week.
Evander (14.7m): He is on track to break Messi's "record" last year of having 15 more goals+assists than xG+xA predicted. Right now he is at +11 (20 G+A vs. 9 xG+xA). Of course, Messi's crazy numbers from last year were in hundreds fewer minutes than Evander has played this year, but it would still be quite a feat to outpace the models by that much. Evander is seemingly that special. Versus Miami and at RSL is not ideal, but Evander has been more or less matchup proof.
Hany Mukhtar (14.7m): Perhaps not as high of a ceiling as some of the other guys lately, it is still two home games where you can expect he will come up big. He delivered against Philadelphia and did what he could at Miami. Should be a very strong consideration.
Martin Ojeda (14.4m): Sixth straight game with at least nine fantasy points. He's simply too good when he's in the lineup. Home to NYC and at NER is a tougher schedule than some others, but he's been great against tough opposition.
Pep Biel (13.3m): Having a great season with great underlying numbers and a pretty good schedule this week. He's in my team and top-5 right now, though there are a lot of competitors for the 4th/5th midfield slot for me.
Albert Rusnak (13.1m): He was pulled a little early last week, getting a yellow during his exit for not leaving by the closest side of the field, but he did his damage in the first half of the game thanks to a PK goal and assist with three BPs. I am hoping Brian Schmetzer has learned his lesson, given how much control Seattle lost against Columbus and Kansas City in the waning minutes with Rusnak off the pitch, and he’s still capable of putting in big games. The double home fixtures this week are a big opportunity.
Philip Zinckernagel (12.9m): A double away week, but Chicago has capitalized on them for a league-leading 29 road goals. This week they face two of the worst defenses. Another 6-goal thrashing seems unlikely, but not impossible.
Carles Gil (15.0m): I have to mention him given how good he has been this year, but at NYRB and home versus Orlando is not a great schedule. Most weeks he'd be at the top of my list, but I think he's juuust a little behind the other guys in my estimation for this week. Of course, his 3-game average is 8 points and his 5-game average is 9 points so you and I may end up missing out by fading him.
David Da Costa (10.8m): A good budget option to replace some of the other elite attackers. Antony is still out so Da Costa gets a little more focus on the ball and has had two 10-point games in a row. Portland should have plenty of the ball in both matches so he should have time for a good amount of KPs. Of course, those most recent two games were his only ones in double digits since Week 2, so temper expectations. He's not in my top five but I wouldn't fault you for taking him.
Jack McGlynn (12.1m): A high-floor player who has a high ceiling when he can actually get on the scoresheet. Houston's offense has been playing better lately in his absence, and it is time for them to try and put it together with him on the field. A risky pick given the ceiling on other players, but he should reliably get you into double digits for the week.
Marco Reus (11.4m): An option if you want to swing for the fences. He will be a differential but could have a huge week. He's scored at least four points in each of his last five outings and also each one that he's gone 60+ minutes going back to Week 13 (8 game sample, with another game of 59 minutes and 1 point). He has scores of 8+ in five of those games and double digits in three. A 16+ point week is very achievable for him, perhaps especially likely given he had 13 points against LAFC earlier this year when the Galaxy were still really struggling.
Forwards
Leo Messi (14.8m): Somehow not the most expensive player in the game. Even on the road you need Messi in your team.
Sam Surridge (13.1m): He's gone cold the past two weeks, but that was against Philadelphia and Miami, tough games. And he is still atop the Golden Boot race (tied with Messi now, but that's a great place to be). Columbus will be tough but he's scored on them already, and the home match against Toronto will be a very enticing match to score some points.
Hugo Cuypers (11.9m): Chicago's road offense has been firing on all cylinders this year, and this week they have two of the worse defenses in the league lined up.
Tanitoluwa Oluwaseyi (11.4m): In his last three games he had 14, 7, and 14 points. Crazy production. He had a bit of a lull through the middle of the year, weeks 8 to 15 where he only scored once, but he's gotten hot again. I think he bags at least one goal this week and multiple would not surprise me.
Denis Bouanga (12.5m): In his last four games he's had 18, 4, 11, and 14 points. Absurd output, but he is one of the league's most talented players. On the road at Minnesota will be tough, given that LAFC has struggled at breaking down teams that are defense first (and who are actually good at defending), but home against the Galaxy could easily see him back in double digits.
Chucky Lozano (10.7m): He should be healthy enough to start both matches and we've seen what he can do when fit. And he does not have to share the spotlight with Iloski, who is on his way back to Europe. Somewhat a differential and somewhat a risk though.
Jesus Ferreira (8.8m): A risky pick given he may not start both games, in his last five starts his points have been 7, 2, 10, 2, 9. Not the most consistent but he just needs one big game to have good points. You probably should not take him given the minutes risk and the upside of other options, but I am being an optimist that our Sounder will go out there and score big given his upward trajectory with the team.
Idan Toklomati (CLT 5.2m): Three goals in Charlotte's last four games, he has taken to his role as Agyemang's replacement. Now that Agyemang's transfer is official, it'll be Toklomati's spot to lose for the foreseeable future. He has the best npxG+xAG/90 on the team, even higher than Biel's and almost triple Zaha's. And that's over a not-insignificant sample size of 741 minutes for the 20-year-old. Of course, his fantasy score is very goal dependent, as he only has three total bonus points on the year. So not that high of a ceiling, but I could definitely see him outpacing more than half the other options here this week.
Captain considerations
Leo Messi: He's been the correct answer for weeks, so even if he slips up this week a bit (finally), it's more likely he's still a top pick anyway.
Anders Dreyer: He's a close second to Messi this week, given his fixtures and his recent form. If you can't stomach another week of Captain Messi, then I think Dreyer is your answer.
Evander: I think he is a risky pick this week – I could easily see the underlying numbers catching up with Cincinnati and them having a zero-point week. Columbus almost seemed casual in coming back from 2 goals down to win 4-2. And Miami is perhaps a better team and it is always hard to play at RSL. Still, this is Evander and he keeps defying those underlying numbers. He's as likely for a 4 point week as a 40 point week.
Albert Rusnak: Maybe a little more stable than Evander with a slightly lower ceiling. I think he gets two starts and goes at least 80 minutes in each (hopefully 90+ if Schmetzer comes to his senses and the result is still up for grabs) with at least a goal and assist this week. I like Rusnak for a 20+ point week, so if you aren't keen on these other guys or just want to be a homer or contrarian, Rusnak is just fine.
