Leagues Cup is in the rearview mirror (for most) and the transfer window is coming to a close, so we are seeing a lot of teams integrating new pieces and adapting to the departure of old ones. Son drew a penalty last weekend, but only played 30 minutes and Muller has yet to debut. Portland, RSL and Columbus also have their own new DP strikers. In the past month, I've counted something like 70+ transfers, many having little impact on fantasy, but there have been some major moves that will start to have a big effect this week. There could still be some big things to come, just keep an eye out for the changing tide for some squads.
Week 24 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Jonathan Sirois/Thomas Gillier (6.4m/X), Pedro Gallese (7.3m), Kristijan Kahlina (7.8m), Hugo Lloris (6.8m), Chris Brady (6.4m), Yohei Takaoka (10.1m)
Defenders
Dante Sealy (7.8m), Alex Freeman's (9.6m), Adilson Malanda ($8.9m), Ryan Hollingshead (7.8m), Andrew Gutman (7.5m), Kai Wagner (12.1m), Tristian Blackmon (10.2m)
Midfielders
Martin Ojeda (15.9m), Anders Dreyer (15.6m), Evander (15.5m), Carles Gil (15.3m), Djordje Mihailovic (13.4m), Marco Pašalić (11.6m), Cristian Espinoza (11.3m), David Da Costa (11.2m), Rodrigo De Paul (11.0m), Marco Reus (10.7m), Gabriel Pirani (8.9m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA 15.3m), Denis Bouanga/Son Hueng-Min (14.0m/11.0m), Sam Surridge (13.0m), Chucky Lozano (11.8m), Wilfried Zaha (11.8m), Rafael Navarro (10.4m), Prince Owusu (10.2m), Luis Muriel (9.5m), Jesus Ferreira/Danny Musovski (8.7m/8.7m)
Week 24 schedule
We have a fairly sensible schedule this week, with the normal Saturday night slate plus three games on Sunday spaced two hours apart each, which funny enough comes out to about five hours of soccer on Saturday and six on Sunday. It would have been nice to have some early Saturday games but I won't complain too much.
Anyway, Saturday has a busy 4:30pm Pacific time slot with seven matches: Miami vs Galaxy, Montreal vs DC, New England vs LAFC, New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia, Orlando vs Kansas City, Toronto vs Columbus and Charlotte vs Salt Lake. Miami may get some minutes from Messi, but both offenses are viable with or without him (and, funny enough, both teams have midweek Leagues Cup matches). Montreal is very enticing at home against DC – even though Montreal is not a good team, DC seems much worse recently. RBNY/Philly looks like a potential blood bath and I don't know which way. Orlando will likely kill SKC even worse than they have some much better teams that have visited (incoming SKC win, of course). Columbus probably wins but I'm curious to see how Toronto look the rest of the year. Charlotte also probably wins, but RSL has retooled a bit and have put up some good results on the road.
5:30pm has Austin vs Dallas, Chicago vs St. Louis, and Minnesota vs Seattle. I don't have very much faith in any of these teams involved. Austin looked strong for most of their game against Houston last week until they lost control of the match and let Houston take a 2-2 draw. Chicago should win, they've done well enough against lower-level competition, but they still have a negative home GD. Minnesota beat the Sounders on the road at the beginning of June, but Sounders coming out of CWC have been a stronger and more cohesive squad and Minnesota has zero clean sheets since before that match. Of course, Seattle is now missing Rusnak and Kent and has midweek Leagues Cup to worry about. I am largely staying away from these games.
6:30pm has Colorado against Atlanta and then 7:30pm features Evander's return to Portland with Cincinnati. Colorado should have fun but I don't know who scores, and Evander seems destined to go completely wild amidst the welcoming love of Timbers fans who surely have no hard feelings about the way he left.
Sunday's matches start at 2:00pm Pacific, with NYCFC taking on Nashville. San Jose gets San Diego at 4:00pm and Vancouver hosts Houston at 6:00pm. Nashville has stumbled recently – three losses in their past five matchea – so it seems entirely likely that NYCFC takes all three points here as they are a side that is getting stronger. San Jose and San Diego will likely trade a bucket of goals and I'm happy to have 2-3 offensive players in this tie. Vancouver should crush Houston but they clearly are not the same team that was invincible earlier this season. White may be out and Muller might not get enough minutes in his debut to put his stamp on this one. Of course, Vancouver defense is really your best late bet as Vancouver did just crush Houston on the road 3-0 a month ago.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
I got a lot wrong here last week, but we go again.
Montreal - Despite later recommending a DC mid as a potential option, I think Montreal is likely to get a shutout. DC has been that bad. Plus, your choice here is Dante Sealy (7.8m), who has been playing right wing for Montreal and had goals in two straight matches. Note that the GK for Montreal last week, Thomas Gillier (on loan from Botafogo), is not yet available in fantasy so you'll have to look elsewhere if he gets the start (unless he gets added late).
Orlando - Big mismatch here in squad strength against SKC, who were shut out in their last two matches by Vancouver and San Diego. Though of course they did generate a respectable 2.0 xG in those games, so don't do something crazy like triple up on their defense. And Orlando's last CS in league play was June 14th against Colorado. Still, Alex Freeman's (9.6m) occasional attacking returns can help buoy your fantasy team even if the defense does not hold firm.
Charlotte - Back home after shutting out Cincinnati on the road, this week RSL comes to visit. With few obvious CS looks this week, I'll go with a red-hot team hosting a cross-country opponent at home. Pick up Adilson Malanda ($8.9m).
LAFC - As I said, slim pickings. I don't like a lot of teams this week. LAFC have a pretty good defense though and New England has failed against lesser teams. If LAFC can bottle up Gil then they should be able to keep a road clean sheet. If you are brave enough to pick here (you could just go for a bench play) then I would take Ryan Hollingshead (7.8m) as he has been working up the bonus points lately.
Chicago - Though Chicago have underperformed this year, especially at home, I still think they are a strong favorite over St. Louis. I think their defense is much improved with Carlos Teran back from injury and starting at CB, but if you want in then I still think your play is Andrew Gutman (7.5m), whose average is very slightly worse than Jack Elliott's but his attacking returns from six assists on the year mean he has a higher ceiling (assuming Elloitt scored his one goal for the year and is done).
Kai Wagner (12.1m) - He's always a consideration, but NYRB have not been shut out this year at home at all, so you are almost certainly relying on Wagner's attacking returns, which have been sporadic recently. I don't have him this week but I wouldn't fault you for giving him another run out.
Vancouver - The lone later defense I like this week, Houston to Vancouver is a decently long trip and I think Vancouver can close out the Dynamo in the way Austin could not. They did 3-0 at Houston, though since then Veselinovic is out for the year injured. Still, I think they are a good late game choice. My pick is Tristian Blackmon (10.2m) as he can mix it up on offense but still has solid bonus point production.
Midfielders
Martin Ojeda (15.9m) - A huge part of Orlando absolutely burying Miami last weekend with 90 MVP-quality minutes. He should be in your team weekly at this point.
Anders Dreyer (15.6m) - SKC could not handle the two-pronged attack with him and Lozano. He has not been quite as sharp consistently as others on this list, but he can easily go off any week. San Jose only kept Vancouver from two goals because of some favorable referee work and an unjustified sending off in the 27th minute (which has since been overturned and suspension canceled). Otherwise, I think he's likely to feast again.
Evander (15.5m) - What drives a player to success? To paraphrase an old saying, to defeat an enemy, uproot and take everything they possess, ride their horses and steal away their spouses. It is almost certainly that personal this weekend for Evander, who has no fondness for the Timbers FO and is almost certainly to be hailed by a chorus of boos from a crowd who hates and holds grudges as hard (and often harder) than they cheer. Evander is a hot and cold player, usually (but not always) showing up in the biggest games, but sometimes looking disinterested in defending and helping his squad if they do not have control of the match. I can almost guarantee he will be up for this one and am looking forward to a haul of points.
Carles Gil (15.3m) - Maybe it was just that it was DC visiting, but Gil was dominant in the outing, having a goal and assist plus three bonus points (and he was one shot on target away from two more). LAFC will certainly be a tougher test, but cross-country trips are always hard on West Coast teams and I would expect Gil to have a good amount of time on the ball as LAFC look to sit deep and spring Son and/or Bouanga on the counter.
Djordje Mihailovic (13.4m) - In his first match with Toronto, he went 89 minutes and had a respectable eight key plays on the road against the best defensive team in the league. He has worse talent around him than he did in Colorado but he brings plenty of his own. If Nagbe is indeed out for Columbus, I could see Djordje having a great game.
Marco Pašalić (11.6m) - Ojeda is the superior option by a good margin, but Orlando's attack is prolific enough that Pašalić warrants mention. He has the seventh-most shots in the league, averaging about 3.5 per game. He sometimes outscores Ojeda, especially if he's the one tucking away Ojeda's assists. An interesting option in a favorable matchup.
David Da Costa (11.2m) - With Santiago Moreno out and a new DP forward added, things are looking up for Da Costa. While Mora and Kelsy have been reasonable forwards, a high-level DP in the center along with more midfield space vacated by Moreno should push Da Costa's production up a notch. And this will be a big match, hosting Cincinnati and Evander. I expect an electric atmosphere and goals on both ends.
Rodrigo De Paul (11.0m) - If Messi is starting, De Paul becomes a very interesting option. He played 90 minutes in Orlando and had 63 passes, 3 KPs and 3 Shots at goal. If Messi is carving out space and dealing like he can do, De Paul could eat the Galaxy's back line alive, especially if Yoshida is Out (I saw he was Questionable). A low floor, high ceiling bench play.
Marco Reus (10.7m) - On the flip side, Miami's defense has huge cracks that can be exploited and, aside from their flop against the Sounders, the Galaxy's offense has been relatively strong lately. Reus drives it and has a high floor with bonus point production. Paintsil may be the high ceiling option though, as he has been on penalty kicks and really can crush teams if he is having a good day.
Gabriel Pirani (8.9m) - My pick for a deep pull on the week, Pirani has quietly been putting together some strong games for DC. Their offense is not the greatest but Pirani has had at least eight fantasy points in three of the last five – all losses, but four were on the road. Now they play at Montreal. Miranchuk had a nice week against Montreal last weekend, scoring a late goal after a mediocre game to scrounge up a point for Atlanta. DC have one solitary point since June started (eight losses, one draw, oof) so don't get too excited, but I could easily see Pirani having a double-digit game up north.
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA 15.3m) - If he starts he should be in your lineup. Off the bench, maybe you put him on your bench. You know the drill.
Denis Bouanga/Son Hueng-Min (14.0m/11.0m) - While we only saw them on the pitch together for 30 minutes last week, early returns were promising. Son used his speed to stretch the middle of the pitch and earned a PK that way. Bouanga buried it. I don't know if Bouanga stays the center of the attack as Son gets more comfortable, but he's probably the smarter of the two to utilize for fantasy right now. On the other hand, if Son is starting, he broke the league's transfer record for a reason.
Sam Surridge (13.0m) - Two fairly disappointing road performances in a row, getting pulled a bit after the 70th minute as Nashville chased a result. That's not ideal for your star forward who is himself chasing the Golden Boot. NYCFC have been vulnerable at the back recently though, with strong enough offensive performances to cover it. Surridge didn't get to 18 goals by mistake, he is a very reasonable play this week.
Chucky Lozano (11.8m) - He is playing at San Jose, a (relatively) short trip and a welcoming defense. There are a bunch of good options this week but few better than him.
Wilfried Zaha (11.8m) - Going back to Week 14, Zaha has just four games with fewer than six points, and seven with 6+ points. His ceiling has not been that high – only two games he's had double digits – but he seems to be getting better as the season goes on. In his first 12 games he averaged less than 4 ppg. In the 13 since, he's averaging 5.8 ppg. A solid contributor growing into a leader playing at home this week.
Rafael Navarro (10.4m) - With Mihailovic gone, this offense is built for Navarro now. Yapi had two goals last week, but Navarro still had nine points from an assist and four bonus points. He also scored at Philadelphia. Now this week he gets Atlanta at home, which is (usually) a great fixture to target.
Prince Owusu (10.2m) - I say "usually" because Owusu was a major disappointment fantasy-wise against Atlanta last week. Of course, he served up Montreal's goal on a platter with a killer through-ball that sent in Caden Clark, who could have gone 1v1 against Guzan but instead played it square to Dante Sealy for a calm finish. Owusu doesn't get fantasy points for that but it's great to see the vision.
Luis Muriel (9.5m) - Muriel was ice cold for 14 games and then went nuclear the past couple of games. I don't know that I fully trust him going forward, as the underlying numbers still say that Ramiro Enrique should be starting for Orlando, but you cannot argue with the results. Good matchup this week too, with SKC coming to town.
Jesus Ferreira/Danny Musovski (8.7m/8.7m) - Musovski has two braces in his last three games. He's sitting on an appropriate 0.74 goals/90, is sixth in overall npxG–ahead of guys like Cristian Arango, who has the benefit of an additional 600 minutes–and second in npxG/90 at an again appropriate 0.74 npxG/90 (behind the aforementioned Enrique at 0.75). He's a goal machine this year, 10 goals on 10.1 npxG. IF he's starting (a big IF) then you have to consider him.
Meanwhile, Jesus Ferreira stepped right into the Rusnak role last week, serving up 12 KPs with a passing bonus and shot bonus to boot. That's a 7-pointer game despite not getting credit for an assist. Musovski poached a rebound off of a nice shot that forced a kick save in the 54th minute, and Ferreira had a handful of other nice moments. And he came off in the 73rd minute, with Seattle in full control at 3-0 and wanting to protect Ferreira's health. With Minnesota being the most pass-averse team in the league by a wide margin, and their opponents having the most passes in the league to boot, I could see him having a similarly strong high-floor match.
Captain considerations
Leo Messi - If he's starting, you might as well captain him. I don't think his injury was ever that serious, just making sure to give him plenty of rest. Captain with gusto.
Martin Ojeda - I think he's become the fantasy metronome for me, you can practically set your watch by seeing him deliver week in and week out. Excellent matchup here.
Evander - Returning back to the town that brought you to MLS with a messy break behind you? I am intrigued (even though Evander cap often lets you down).
Anders Dreyer - An MVP-caliber campaign gets to take a stop by San Jose in somewhat of a rivalry match. Another one I am highly intrigued about.
