Congratulations to the final 50 qualifiers to the Fantasy Champions League, it is an elite club and a great accomplishment. If you're reading this, go out and win it for me! I will be watching from the sidelines this time (very distantly). For the rest of us, this stretch run can be a time to close the season strong and, at the least, gain some ranks and possibly go for a Week Rank of #1 for a prize.
Week 25 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Andrew Rick (PHI 7.1m), Yohei Takaoka (9.8m), CJ Dos Santos (8.0m), Kristijan Kahlina (8.3m), Stefan Frei (7.7m)
Defenders
Kai Wagner (11.8m), Mathias Laborda (9.3m), Christopher McVey (10.0m), Adilson Malanda (9.4m), Kalani Kossa-Rienzi (6.3m)
Midfielders
Martin Ojeda (16.4m), Anders Dreyer (16.1m), Evander (15.6m), Hany Mukhtar (15.5m), Philip Zinckernagel (14.9m), Jack McGlynn (13.3m), Djordje Mihailovic (13.2m), Rodrigo De Paul (11.2m), Alexey Miranchuk (9.7m), Joseph Paintsil (9.0m*), Owen Wolff (8.9m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (15.8m), Diego Rossi (13.6m), Alonso Martinez (11.8m), Son Heung-Min (11.5m), Luis Suarez (11.4m), Rafael Navarro (10.9m), Danny Musovski (9.2m), Milan Iloski (8.5m), Idan Toklomati (7.2m)
Week 25 schedule
This is perhaps the last "normal" game week of the year, as next week has a good amount of byes due to the rescheduled matches for the conclusion of Leagues Cup and the remaining weeks have wonky double-game weeks (even a triple for LAFC to close the year) as teams make up canceled matches from earlier in the season. So, enjoy it while it lasts!
No early Saturday matches, so we start off at 4:30pm Pacific with Columbus vs New England, DC vs Miami, Montreal vs Austin, Philadelphia vs Chicago and Cincinnati vs NYCFC. All these games have the potential to be high scoring, so I expect the week to start out with a bang for fantasy points. One big question is whether Chicago's road form can overcome Philadelphia's strong home form (just one loss on the year) and put Chicago more firmly into a playoff position. I'm also interested in how much rotation Miami does on their visit to DC. Messi will be out, it's possible some of the other stars get rest ahead of an important midweek Leagues Cup grudge match against Orlando, the third time the teams will have met this year with a 7-1 advantage to Orlando so far.
At 5:30pm Dallas hosts LAFC, Houston plays San Jose, and Nashville takes on Orlando. A lot of potential heat in these games, both in terms of temperature and goalscoring. LAFC has games in hand and the potential to take a commanding lead for 2nd in the West if they use them wisely, but these games are not gimmes. Dallas is currently on the outside looking in, but both them and Houston are just three points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand over San Jose in 9th. Nashville vs Orlando will likely be a spicy one between 3rd and 4th in the East as Orlando is hot but will have an eye towards the midweek Leagues Cup match against Miami.
6:30pm has Salt Lake vs Minnesota and Vancouver vs St. Louis a little earlier than usual. RSL has made a lot of changes trying to set themselves up for a playoff run (they're in 10th, a point back from SJ with a game in hand) but Minnesota will be a very tough test. Minnesota gritted out a 1-0 win against the Sounders last weekend, withstanding Seattle having 70% possession by scoring on a free kick dink that sailed by Frei into the net and limiting Seattle to crowded shots in the box and St. Clair being equal to the quality shots on target. Vancouver has done some reworking of their own, but the core of the squad is in place and seems likely to crush St. Louis.
7:30pm the Galaxy host Colorado and San Diego plays Portland. Colorado seems likely for a road win as the Galaxy will surely prioritize the midweek Leagues Cup match against Seattle (who they just lost to 4-0) with the Galaxy's regular season toast. San Diego will be heavy favorites against slumping Portland; though Portland did pull out a gutsy road win over LAFC recently, their overall road form has been quite bad, and it will take some time to get Portland's new additions up to speed.
Sunday has three games with some cushion between them, Atlanta plays Toronto at 1:00pm, Charlotte hosts New York Red Bulls at 4:00pm and then Seattle gets Kansas City at 6:15pm to close out the weekend. Both Atlanta and Toronto are virtually eliminated from the playoff picture, so this is more of an exhibition match that could be a fun one with plenty of goals.
Charlotte has the best home record in the league by PPG and though the Red Bulls have more points at home by one from an extra game played, the Red Bulls also have the fourth-worst road record in the whole league with just one win and seven total road points. Charlotte have to be heavy favorites to continue their six-game winning streak.
Seattle vs Kansas City looks like a huge mismatch on paper, as the Sounders have +8.4 xGD and Kansas City has a league-worst -20.4 xGD, but Seattle has been hit by injuries to key players and will be prepping for a midweek return trip to Carson, California on their quest for a Leagues Cup crown. That title would give Seattle a full set of trophies from all those regularly available to MLS teams: multiple MLS Cups and Open Cup trophies, Supporter's Shield and CCC (CCL) championship. Schmetzer has been reluctant to rotate this year though, so I still expect a strong lineup against SKC and even with some rotation the depth should be good enough to calmly handle SKC.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Philadelphia - Chicago visiting will be a big test, but Philadelphia still has one of the better defenses in the league even if clean sheets have been a little hard to come by lately. Kai Wagner (11.8m) is still a premium option though, as he is often earning 2-3 BPs from KPs and crosses. I would expect in this match his danger in the attack is enough to at least try him from the bench even if a CS is not as likely, especially with Andre Blake injured again.
Vancouver - The Caps juuuuust barely missed a CS against Houston by conceding on a half chance that was well taken by Artur in the first minute of stoppage time. Houston generated just 0.7 xG compared to Vancouver's 2.4 xG. St. Louis has picked up their goalscoring recently (multiple goals in 7 of the last 11 games) but they are still second-last in the West. Vancouver is more than capable of keeping St. Louis out of the net. Tristan Blackmon was pulled at halftime of that match, so I'm going with Mathias Laborda (9.3m) as my pick as he is locked into the lineup and on the year has been the most dangerous of Vancouver's defenders in the attack. Though Ali Amed may be back in as a winger for Vancouver, he's still working back from injury and will likely be on limited minutes.
San Diego - Portland has generally not been a good road team for some months. They had a nice result at LAFC but that has been the exception rather than the norm, losing five of their last seven road games and shut out in four. San Diego has had some ups and downs on defense as young players are integrated and they work through injuries to the veterans. I'd be more cautious if I knew how Portland's new attackers were fitting in, but until we see them on the field I am happy to bet on San Diego. Christopher McVey (10.0m) has been best on the season, especially with McNair out, though Bombino has had great weeks when he gets in for goalscoring contributions.
Charlotte - They are the hottest team in the league, on a 6-game winning streak. They have a nearly perfect home record and the visiting Red Bulls have a very bad road record. They are the second-to-last game of the week so should be a good option at the top of your switcheroos. The most reliable option is Adilson Malanda (9.4m) who is likely to be (or has been?) sold to Middlesbrough and will join them in the offseason.
Seattle - Another late option if you are feeling bold, in the past couple of months the Sounders have shut out the Galaxy, Austin, Puebla, Cruz Azul and Santos Laguna. They also gave up multiple goals in four straight matchups. But they will be heavily favored against Kansas City this weekend regardless. The Sounders' defense has not been for the faint of heart this year as they have given up the second-most PKs, conceded the second-most OGs and received the most red cards. And yet the Sounders have a respectable seven clean sheets. This is a bit of a shot in the dark but I'm speculating that Kalani Kossa-Rienzi (6.3m) will be the best of the defenders, as he has been very dangerous in attack and will likely get an extended run out with Alex Roldan potentially rested ahead of the Leagues Cup matches.
Midfielders
Martin Ojeda (16.4m) - Away to Nashville is not the easiest of matches, as Nashville has kept three straight clean sheets at home (1-0 vs Philly, 3-0 vs Crew, 1-0 vs Toronto) but Nashville have also lost four straight road matches including their most recent three games, surrendering eight goals in that span. I believe their true form is somewhere in the middle, and Ojeda has been taking advantage of teams on a weekly basis. He should be a fixture of basically everyone's team.
Anders Dreyer (16.1m) - Snagged a late winning goal last week to rescue an otherwise poor road outing (zero bonus points, -1 from a yellow card). This week San Diego hosts Portland, who have been trending downwards as of late, losing five of their last eight matches. Last weekend for Portland it was a barn burner at home, where Evander and Cincy blazed out to an early lead and held on through a wild second half for a 3-2 Cincy win. Portland's last league road outings were a 2-0 loss to Dallas, a 1-0 win at LAFC, a 2-1 loss at St. Louis, and a 3-0 loss to Toronto. Outside of that surprising LAFC win they have been a poor road team and I expect Dreyer and San Diego to take full advantage of the mismatch.
Evander (15.6m) - He got his "revenge" on his return to Portland, earning a goal and assist amidst a chorus of boos. This week it is home to NYC, so back to business as usual: a hot and cold player who is likely to hit double digits but often turns in listless performances with 3-4 points. He's probably in your team regardless, though benching him might be warranted especially with the early kickoff.
Hany Mukhtar (15.5m) - He had a reasonable outing at NYC last week and remains a premier playmaker in MLS. Orlando has a reasonable defense but at home Mukhtar has been one of the very best.
Philip Zinckernagel (14.9m) - I accidentally left him out of my article last week even though I had put him in my team, and then worriedly dropped him from my squad with the weather concerns in Chicago. Both turned out to be big mistakes after another huge game from Zinc: goal, assist, 14 KPs, 3 crosses. This week he is at Philly, a tough place to play, but Zinc has had a lot of very good road performances, averaging over 7 points on the road (and over 8 points after Week 4).
Jack McGlynn (13.3m) - His points at Vancouver were a disappointing let down after his monster 2nd half against Austin, but this week Houston is hosting San Jose. I think it is reasonable to expect his usual 8+ KPs with a high chance of goal contributions.
Rodrigo De Paul (11.2m) - There will be no Messi this weekend, and there's an open question of whether De Paul will even play ahead of the midweek Leagues Cup match and the Final/3rd Place game next Sunday. But he was great in Leagues Cup and had an assist, 48 passes and 11 KPs in 45 minutes against the Galaxy. Granted, it was the Galaxy and he had Messi to work with in that match, but DC is not a team to be intimidated by.
Alexey Miranchuk (9.7m) - Three straight games with a goal and 9+ points. I don't know if that is going to keep continuing, but this week is home against Toronto. And he plays Sunday, so a reasonable option to start and then scrub if your bench from Saturday hits big.
Joseph Paintsil (9.0m*) - I could see him getting rotated this weekend ahead of Leagues Cup, but lately he has been looking much more like the dangerous and exciting player he was last year. He scored against Miami and had a perfect pass to beat three defenders against Pachuca that put Nascimento in on goal all alone, setting up Reus's game-winning goal. High ceiling player who could put on a show against Colorado.
Owen Wolff (8.9m) - Three goals in the past four games and had 5 points with no goal contributions against Houston in the fourth game. Those three goals are the only three he's scored this year and have doubled his career MLS total, so don't bank on that continuing. Still, he is playing at Montreal against a re-worked defense now lacking their best defender in Waterman, so I could see another 8+ point outing. He plays early so a good bench candidate.
Forwards
Diego Rossi (13.6m) - He's been quietly putting together an excellent season for Columbus, taking most of the scoring duties upon himself with 13 goals on the campaign, including goals in back-to-back games. He was a disappointment a few weeks ago against DC, but home to the Revs should be another good matchup. This weekend may also feature the debut of new DP forward Wessam Abou Ali, which could be a boost to Rossi's own scoring and playmaking.
Alonso Martinez (11.8m) - One of the hottest strikers in the league, he had a hat trick at Dallas and scored in two of the other three most recent games. This week he is at Cincinnati, who despite being at the top of the Supporter's Shield race is a mid home team compared with the other good teams in the East. Their 1.92 home ppg looks good until you see that it is eighth-best in the East behind seven others with 2.0 ppg at home or better. Cincinnati are at the top of the shield race because their road ppg is better at 1.93 ppg. Seems reasonable that Martinez could step in and take advantage of that especially with Cincinnati attempting to incorporate some new pieces and fill new holes from all the transfer deadline moves they made.
Son Heung-Min (11.5m) - Why is Son here instead of Bouanga? Well, against New England Bouanga was subbed off in the first minute of stoppage and Son provided the insurance assist in the fourth minute of stoppage. Want more? Son created 1.3 npxG + xA with 8 shot-creating actions. Bouanga had 0.0 npxG + xA with 3 shot-creating actions (according to fbref.com using Opta's stats). Son had 9 fantasy points (two for playing 90 mins, three for 14 KPs, plus one for shots on goal), Bouanga had 2 points. Of course it is a tiny sample size of 90 minutes and Bouanga will surely be a beneficiary of Son's play, but early results suggest Son is the forward to utilize here. This week they are playing at Dallas, whose 22 goals allowed at home is tied for fifth-worst in the league.
Luis Suarez (11.4m) - He has been stepping up in Messi's absence, both in Leagues Cup and MLS play. Last week he had 12 points against the Galaxy, five from bonus points plus a goal. He took both of Miami's PKs against Tigres and scored both for the win. He's had some rough stretches of form this year but seems to be peaking at the right time for Miami. He may be rested ahead of a much more important Leagues Cup game than away to DC, but if he starts he's got to be a favorite of the matchday to get on the scoreboard.
Rafael Navarro (10.9m) - Two goals and an assist as Colorado dismantled the visiting Atlanta United, Colorado has managed to hang on to Navarro as they retool the offense to adjust to Mihailovic's departure and now Paxten Aaronsen's arrival. This week Colorado is at the Galaxy, who surely have little interest in a lost MLS regular season and will be looking toward the Leagues Cup as their sole remaining trophy hope. I think Navarro is highly likely to continue his hot streak.
Danny Musovski (9.2m) - Musovski completely lost his mind against Puebla, bumping into the ref as he was shown a yellow card, angry about a game full of hard hits against the Sounders that were largely unpunished. He is suspended for the remaining two Leagues Cup matches so will almost certainly be playing the majority of the Sounders' match against Kansas City this weekend. The team could add its own discipline on top of whatever he gets from the Leagues Cup overseers for his egregious breach of the rules, but that seems unlikely given Nouhou did not receive anything additional for beaning a fan with a ball and the Sounders are already thin at forward and in the attack in general.
All that aside, Musovski has been good in league play, he's sixth in the league for total npxG and sits second in npxG/90 amongst qualified players just behind Ramiro Enrique in Orlando and just ahead of Leo Messi (who, as you may have gathered, is injured and out for the weekend). The Sounders could rotate some for the weekend, but Brian Schmetzer has been putting miles on a lot of legs and seems willing to trust his guys to play multiple games in a week while competing in multiple competitions. I expect a strong lineup against SKC in what should be a comfortable victory for the Sounders, given their recent form.
Milan Iloski (8.5m) - A bit of a shot in the dark, given Philadelphia's amorphous forward group, but Iloski played 90 last weekend in Philly's loss to the Red Bulls. Damiani and Baribo were benched, with Damiani on at halftime (he took Philly's PK and it was saved) and Baribo on in the 61st minute for Uhre. Iloski has already been handed the steering wheel for the Philadelphia offense and will be looking to pick up where he left off this week against Chicago.
Idan Toklomati (7.2m) - He's on the score sheet each of the past four weeks and in seven of the 10 games since he took the starting role in Week 17. And the underlying numbers support his success – he's fifth in npxG/90, ahead of Cuypers and Martinez and Baribo and White (granted of course he has just under 1200 minutes). With Charlotte one of the hottest teams in the league, and the Red Bulls having major struggles on the road, it seems likely Toklomati will continue his hot streak.
Captain considerations
Anders Dreyer - I know he's had some off weeks but this one is setting up nicely for him to have another big game. I think his floor in this one is six points and will likely be higher from there.
Evander - The maestro showed Portland what they had been missing and now has a big task to dispatch NYCFC at home and stay at the top of the table. A major threat every week but can run cold when he is not feeling it.
Martin Ojeda - I think there's a good case he's been the best player in the league the past couple of months. Or at least in fantasy. If Orlando can move up the table a bit I think he has a strong case for MVP.
Rafael Navarro - He's been mega hot and is playing a very vulnerable Galaxy defense in a game the Galaxy likely are punting to prepare for Wednesday's match. Definitely risky to go with a road forward as a captain but I think he upside here may be worthwhile.
