Another double game week coming up, this one with (a) a Leagues Cup Final rematch, (b) two RSL vs. LAFC games, and (c) two matchups that were just played a month ago (Miami vs. DC and Columbus vs. Toronto). Familiarity here could lead to some surprise results, and hopefully a meaningful dose of fantasy points for our favorites.
Week 28 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Oscar Ustari (4.6m), Stefan Frei (6.8m), Matt Freese (7.7m), Hugo Lloris (6.8m), Andrew Rick (8.1m), Dayne St. Clair (8.3m)
Defenders
Jordi Alba (8.5m), Alex Roldan (8.7m), Justin Haak (9.6m), Sergei Palencia (8.1m), Kai Wagner (12.5m), Michael Boxall (7.5m), Dante Sealy (9.6m)
Midfielders
Double: Albert Rusnak (13.8m), Rodrigo De Paul (11.7m), Daniel Gazdag (10.6m), Diego Luna (10.4m), Maxi Morales (10.3m), Nicolas Fernandez Mercau (9.9m), Pedro de la Vega (6.8m)
Single: Martin Ojeda (16.9m), Anders Dreyer (16.7m), Evander (16.1m), Jack McGlynn (14.6m), Thomas Müller (11.1m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (16.3m), Denis Bouanga (14.2m), Son Heung-min (13.0m), Alonso Martinez (12.7m), Wessam Abou Ali (10.7m), Danny Musovski (10.2m)
Week 28 schedule
Tuesday at 4:30 pm Pacific, Seattle and Miami will kick off to start the week in Florida. This Leagues Cup Final rematch will be a spicy one considering it was barely two weeks ago that Miami's frustrations boiled over into a post-game melee after they decisively lost. Lineups will likely look fairly different in this one as Seattle may rotate (but Rusnak should be back) and Miami has Luis Suarez suspended. I think Seattle will have the midfield advantage here, with the final result dependent on Messi finding space (and maybe getting extra protection by the ref) to work his magic.
Wednesday has two big games – NYCFC vs Columbus at 4:30 pm and then RSL hosting LAFC at 6:30 pm. Columbus had been struggling before their win in Atlanta, with some of their issues highlighted after they let Atlanta score four and nearly come all the way back from 5-1 down. NYCFC have won three of four since Leagues Cup (all wins over playoff sides) taking another seven points from the three games before the break. NYCFC would jump Columbus in the standings with a win and they have a game in hand. I like NYCFC in this one. Even though RSL is just a point back in the playoff race behind San Jose with two games in hand, it will be a steep hill to climb against LAFC this week. Since May, RSL's only wins over playoff sides were against Portland and San Jose. It seems likely this is a 6-pt week for LAFC.
Saturday has a full day of games to watch, starting at 9 am with NYCFC against Charlotte. Charlotte are going for the consecutive wins record in this one. Charlotte beat NYCFC in July, but playing away to NYCFC is always tough. I think Charlotte's streak comes to an end here but it should be a good match.
Philadelphia hosts a Porter-less New England at 11:30 am, with a Philly win wrapping up New England's playoff hopes. Despite Philly's epic 7-0 loss at Vancouver, I think they will be fine and this should be an easy match for them.
Atlanta gets San Diego at 1:30 pm. We will likely see goals going both ways in this one, probably with a result for San Diego. Atlanta's last MLS win at home was in May. Despite San Diego's loss to Minnesota, the game looked generally as I expected: 66% possession for San Diego with the bulk of the chances on their side (2.2 xG vs 0.7 xG), but Dayne St. Clair stood on his head and SD couldn't finish their chances, while Minnesota finished theirs and Nectarios Triantis found CJ Dos Santos out of his net and chipped him from half field. San Diego will be fine.
4:30 pm has Columbus against Toronto, Miami vs. DC, Montreal hosting New York Red Bulls, and Orlando vs. Nashville. I think the home teams are all major favorites here, considering the strength of Columbus, Miami and Orlando (though Nashville will make that one interesting) and how bad the Red Bulls have been on the road (2.2 ppg at home, 0.5 on the road). Columbus and Miami look like great picks for their DGWs, as long as you can identify the right players to pick up.
5:30 pm has Dallas against Colorado, Houston hosting Portland, Kansas City vs. Vancouver and Minnesota taking on Chicago. I am not sure any of these matches are that interesting from a fantasy perspective, except maybe Vancouver at SKC. Considering how bad Kansas City has been this year, it'll be very tempting to take a chance on Müller on the road after his monster performance against Philadelphia (granted, taking two PKs is not going to be common). Minnesota defense could also be interesting given Chicago's struggles against top-tier teams.
We skip straight to 7:30 pm games, where the Galaxy host Cincinnati and San Jose gets St. Louis. The Galaxy just fought to a gutsy 2-2 draw in Seattle, a great result after their struggles against Seattle at home, but I still think Cincinnati is heavily favored here. Evander could be a great non-DGW pick. San Jose and St. Louis probably sees its share of goals, though it's hard to predict which way they'll go.
Sunday has Austin hosting Seattle a 4:00 pm and then the return leg of LAFC vs RSL is at 6:00 pm to end the weekend. Seattle is a tough team to predict this week as we could see rotation across the field and they have two road games, but the opportunity is there for big points. LAFC should be winning this one with ease. Emphasis on "should," they have lost or drawn some recently they very much should have won.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
DGW
Miami - It is impossible to rely on Miami's defense to keep clean sheets, but they attack with abandon and Jordi Alba (8.5m) in particular has rekindled his partnership with Messi lately. Though Miami lost to Charlotte, Alba was heavily involved in the attack getting eight KPs and three crosses. He had 13 KPs in his last MLS outing against the Galaxy plus a goal. Could be a nice week for his attacking returns.
Seattle - They allowed just one goal across the entirety of Leagues Cup, which included wins over the reigning CCC champion, reigning MLS Cup champion (lol) and Supporter's Shield holder. Then of course they let in two against the Galaxy at home on the weekend. But they held firm against Miami by bullying Messi and not letting him move off the ball and getting a little lucky from some Miami misfires. We could see a clean sheet in the rematch if the midfield dominates again, then whatever happens in Austin would be gravy. I think benching them to see what happens tonight is totally reasonable. If you go here, then your best choice is probably Alex Roldan (8.7m), who has been dealing in the attack recently. He's regained firm control of the RB position from Kalani Kossa-Rienzi and should be good for two starts. Ragen likely gets two starts but is on yellow-card warning, Yeimar is likely the next best option. Note also that we could see some GK rotation, though I expect Frei will be the starter for now. Frei has not looked sharp since returning from injury though, and it's any day now that Thomas takes over as the starter for good.
NYCFC - Two home games is always a good place to start for defenses, though of course they are against two pretty good playoff opponents. Still, Justin Haak (9.6m) can deliver points.
LAFC - The best defense in the league by expected goals against, perhaps will not keep as clean sheet at RSL given the difficulty playing there, but should be able to hold firm at home. I think the go-to for points and minutes here is Sergei Palencia (8.1m).
Single
Philadelphia - Playing at home is a great place for Philadelphia, though playing the Revs on a new coach bounce might be dangerous. Still, Kai Wagner (12.5m) is always a threat going forward even if Philadelphia concedes and is a very interesting choice.
Minnesota - Their stifling defense very nearly blanked San Diego on the road but for a late stoppage consolation goal, and this week they host a Chicago team that has struggled against elite competition. Though Markanich scored another goal last weekend, he is not a starter right now, so go with Michael Boxall (7.5m) if you are so inclined.
Montreal - They are still bottom of the East after losing at home to St. Louis, but Dante Sealy (9.6m) is still playing out-of-position at winger and they get to host the second-worst road team in the league. Of course, St. Louis was the worst road team coming into that match, and Sealy was yanked in the 57th minute with Montreal down two goals, so take him with caution. Any single-game week player is a risk, Sealy has a high ceiling though.
Midfielders
DGW
Albert Rusnak (13.8m) - I expect him back in the starting lineup tonight and then to get a big chunk of minutes on the weekend, if not starting at least. He's an elite option whenever he plays for the way he runs Seattle's offense. As good as Ferreira can be in the role, Rusnak is one of the best in the league at it. Even something like 110 minutes from Rusnak should be plenty for a good score.
Rodrigo De Paul (11.7m) - He's the best option from Miami's midfield. He hasn't had the huge scores like some others have had, yet, but it seems only a matter of time before he really clicks.
Daniel Gazdag (10.6m) - He's leveled up now that Columbus have an elite #9 again, as he can make the third runs and use the space left open by Abou Ali and Rossi making their own moves. Though Rossi is out for some time, the goals should come for him now.
Diego Luna (10.4m) - The only reasonable option from RSL this week, Luna can make magic happen whenever he is on the field. 11 points last week in his first action out of the USMNT camp. It'll be tougher against LAFC, but he can find the gaps and score unreasonable goals.
Maxi Morales (10.3m) - He's had a little boost from NYCFC bringing in new winger Fernandez (and Wolf has lost out a little), as he now has a better option wide left to play in and off of. It's about a 50/50 which of the two is better for fantasy.
Nicolas Fernandez Mercau (9.9m) - Said new elite option for NYCFC. He balances the attack a little better and has improved the wide play. Could very easily see him improving as he gains familiarity with his teammates and comfort in NYCFC's stadiums.
Pedro de la Vega (6.8m) - My weekly shot in the dark pick from Seattle, I think he likely starts Tuesday after being rested on Saturday. He is dealing with some tendinitis, so probably will not play a ton of minutes this week, but I expect him to come out heavily motivated to prove himself against Miami and Messi. If he is starting tonight, could be a great bench option to see how he does in game one of the double game week. Unfortunately match 2 is the latest possible so you can't preview his full double-week score before deciding whether to keep him on the bench. Very high risk play.
Single
Martin Ojeda (16.9m) - You are hopefully familiar with his body of work. Will be a massive game for Orlando hosting Nashville.
Anders Dreyer (16.7m) - Mercedes-Benz Stadium has been very friendly to visiting attacks. Could easily see him outscoring most of the DGW options.
Evander (16.1m) - The Galaxy have also been very friendly to opposing offenses. Similarly high ceiling and likely will outscore most DGW options.
Jack McGlynn (14.6m) - Came out of the USMNT camp and scored 12 points in his single game on the road. This week they host Portland.
Thomas Müller (11.1m) - Hat trick plus an assist was good for a crazy 23-point week as Vancouver heavily punished Philadelphia for rotating on the road. He was fairly fortunate to get to take two PKs, but his non-penalty xG+xAG/90 is 0.67, so he should remain on the score sheet often.
Forwards
Leo Messi (16.3m) - Perhaps still playing a little through injury, last weekend was not great for him or Miami in their shutout loss to Charlotte. He may end up bullied again by Seattle's midfield but then gets DC on the weekend. He'll be fine (as long as he's playing, he did go 90 against Charlotte).
Denis Bouanga (14.2m) - Showing a return to his dominance of LAFC's attack, he had a hat trick against San Jose. Either of LAFC's star forwards can have massive weeks, it'll be tough to pick between them.
Son Heung-min (13.0m) - It was Bouanga's show last weekend, but Son still chipped in with a goal and eight fantasy points of his own. An elite option, it would not be crazy to pick both guys from LAFC this week.
Alonso Martinez (12.7m) - 9 points last week in Chicago in his return from international duty (where he also had a good goal in WCQ against Haiti for Costa Rica), he is an elite option on an improved offense. Two home games should be nice fixtures for him.
Wessam Abou Ali (10.7m) - He has instantly leveled up Columbus's attack. It'll be on him to lead the line with Rossi sidelined, but he has two reasonable fixtures this week and a clear path to points.
Danny Musovski (10.2m) - A goal and assist last week, his league-leading npxG/90 is no fluke: he is one of the best strikers in the league this year, finishing the high-quality chances the Sounders create. His one knock this week is in addition to De Rosario taking some time, Jordan Morris is coming back on the field. Everyone (and especially the Sounders) know that Morris is an elite player with athletic ability above and beyond Musovski's, but I expect him to be reintegrated slowly as long as Musovski keeps scoring.
Captain considerations
Leo Messi - I don't think he blanks against Seattle twice, plus DC on the weekend is a prime fixture. Higher risk than normal though, as I would not be surprised to see continued struggles from Miami especially with Suarez out.
Albert Rusnak - Nine games this year with double-digit fantasy scores, he's an elite option when starting. He has been in full training so should get a good chunk of minutes this week. Two road games and possible rotation as he reintegrates suggests some caution, but has one of the highest ceilings this week. High risk-high reward choice.
Son Heung-min/Denis Bouanga - I would not be surprised in the least if one of these guys has the highest score of the week, and could be that both of them are on the Dream Team for the week. Totally reasonable Messi alternatives.
Alonso Martinez - My pick of the other DGW options to have the best week, he's got 15 goals on the year and his npxG/90 is top 10, with the only DGW players ahead of him being Musovski (minutes risk) and Messi. Plus he's got two home games. Could be in for his own massive week.
