This week is the second-to-last MLS Fantasy week of the year. The mini-DGW does throw things off somewhat, especially since one of the teams is Messi, I mean Miami. Some choices are a little bit forced, but we should still see plenty of differentiation in teams since maxing out on DGW players still leaves some big holes. If you are still with us, and still competitive in your H2H leagues, mini leagues or the overall table, good luck! It has been a long journey and we are almost home.
Week 30 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Oscar Ustari (5.3m), Chris Brady (6.4m), Andre Blake (7.8m), Hugo Lloris (6.4m) (check for injury though), Dayne St. Clair (9.3m)
Defenders
Jordi Alba (9.5m *YCW), Andrew Gutman/Joel Waterman (7.7m/6.7m), Kai Wagner (12.6m), Dante Sealy (9.7m), Ryan Porteous (8.2m), Alex Freeman (9.9m)
Midfielders
Philip Zinckernagel (16.1m), Rodrigo De Paul (12.1m), Andre Franco (?), Jonathan Bamba (9.1m), Martin Ojeda (17.9m), Thomas Müller (11.6m), Albert Rusnak (13.7m), Hany Mukhtar (17.4m), Evander (17.1m), Jack McGlynn (15.6m), Anders Dreyer (16.7m), Carles Gil (14.3m), Kristoffer Velde (10.7m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (17.3m), Hugo Cuypers (10.7m), Luis Suarez (11.0m *YCW), Son Hueng-min/Denis Bouanga (14.0m/15.2m), Sam Surridge (13.7m), Petar Musa (13.0m)
Week 30 schedule
Tuesday night is the appetizer, as Miami hosts Chicago at 4:30 pm Pacific. Chicago has won three of their last four, with the last two a very impressive road win at Minnesota and last weekend a 2-0 home victory over Columbus. Does Gregg have the team hitting their stride at the perfect time? Better late than never I guess. Miami and Messi are obviously the major favorites here (guess who was the dream team captain last week!) but the miles and minutes have to be adding up.
Saturday starts with a pair of early games, Montreal vs. Nashville and then DC hosting Charlotte. Two of the worst of the East hosting 5th and 6th place in the standings. Montreal did just have a superb 4-1 road win over Charlotte, though that was largely the product of them taking advantage of a very unwise red card for Adilson Malanda in the 20th minute after Charlotte had taken an early lead. I am sorry if you followed me and took Malanda/Kahlina because what a disaster that was on the field and in fantasy (combined -3 points). I definitely think the visitors win these games but I am not necessarily expecting clean sheets in either.
4:30 pm features Miami against New England, Red Bulls vs. Cincinnati, Orlando hosting Columbus and Philadelphia against NYCFC. Miami are big favorites again, and rightfully so. They are seven points behind the Union for the Supporters' Shield, but they have two games in hand. Two wins this week would mean they would be at least tied for second in the East. The Red Bulls aren't quite eliminated from the playoffs, but they would need a collapse by Chicago to have any hope and then go and win both of their games. Orlando vs. Columbus is 7th and 8th in the East and will have major seeding implications, while Philadelphia will really want to win, as I believe it would eliminate everyone besides a perfect Miami for the Supporter's Shield (Whitecaps could reach them on points but would lose the Wins tiebreaker).
5:30 pm is Austin vs St. Louis, Chicago hosting Toronto, Houston playing San Diego and Minnesota against Kansas City. Austin should be able to handle St. Louis at home, although they couldn't handle other non-current playoff squads on the road in recent weeks, losing to Dallas and Salt Lake. Perhaps the home field advantage is the difference. Chicago also should handle Toronto, but Toronto is riding a record-setting string of draws to close the season, having stymied Miami at home over the weekend. You should probably be taking Chicago players anyway. San Diego and Minnesota will both be strong favorites in their respective games, though San Diego is winless in their last three. Minnesota likely has no trouble against Kansas City though.
The two night games are RSL against Colorado at 6:30 pm and Seattle facing Portland at 7:30 pm. A win for RSL would actually put them ahead of Colorado in the standings and potentially into a playoff spot with a game in hand. Still, RSL has lost five of seven games since Leagues Cup, so it would be a bit of a surprise if they climb back into the playoffs. Colorado has had their own struggles as well though–hence being within striking distance of RSL despite their collapse. Seattle has been listing since Leagues Cup ended with a highly frustrating run of games, but Portland has not been much better, with one win and seven points in their eight matches since their Leagues Cup run ended. I'd like to think Seattle gets back to winning here, but they seem to be cursed at Lumen against Portland.
Sunday has the last two games of the week. First is Vancouver against San Jose at 3:00 pm and then LAFC hosts Atlanta at 6:00 pm. You have to expect a Vancouver win, though I would not necessarily expect a clean sheet. San Jose has only been shut out twice this year, while everyone else has been shut out at least four times. Granted, the Whitecaps and Takaoka are top of the clean sheet charts but they have suffered a lot of injuries to the back line. LAFC against Atlanta could be a bloodbath with how Bouanga and Son are playing lately (with a good defense to back it up).
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Miami – They have two home games and one of the best offensive "wingbacks" in the league in Jordi Alba (9.5m). Alba had a goal, a clean sheet, and four bonus points in the last DGW. In the previous DGW he had two assists, a goal and six bonus points. He should be a headliner in your squad, but keep in mind he’s on yellow-card warning. If you want a safer option, go for Noah Allen. Oscar Ustari (5.3m) is probably who you want in goal between these two teams, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady clear 80% of other keepers in the league this week if you want triple Miami attackers.
Chicago – They get double points this week so have an edge on basically all the other non-scoring defenders. Andrew Gutman (7.7m) has been great in the attack the past couple of games, with a goal and assist, but his points can bottom out when he or the team isn't doing well. In the five games before his last two his average score was 2 points, and that's with an assist in that span. Put him on the bench and see if he breaks out. On the other hand, you could roll with Joel Waterman (6.7m), who has had two passing BPs in each of his last games for Chicago. That kind of floor on your defender really helps buoy your score and it’s even nicer during a DGW to have those kind of consistent points. Chris Brady (6.4m) could see a nice week if Chicago can break Toronto's streak of draws (or get another 0-0 draw) and probably racks up enough points to beat out a majority of other keepers.
Philadelphia – Four shutouts in last five matches, so for Kai Wagner (12.6m) even though his offensive output has not been as much the last few games, he's still generally earning good points.
Dante Sealy (9.7m) – He's one of Montreal's best attackers, scoring off a direct free kick last week and adding another from the run of play as Montreal overran a 10-man Charlotte. Nashville is visiting, and they have had a rough go of it on the road lately. A CS is not super likely but he's getting quality shots.
LAFC – This matchup is not close. I expect LAFC to have no problem securing three points and a clean sheet against Atlanta. Scottish centerback Ryan Porteous (8.2m) has walked into LAFC's starting lineup and helped them to four straight wins and is averaging more than 1 BP per 90. Smolyakov had a massive week last week with two assists and three BPs on top of his CS, but he is not even a regular starter, trading time with Hollingshead.
Alex Freeman (9.9m) – Last week he had a last-minute stoppage equalizer to steal some points from Cincinnati, this week Orlando hosts a struggling Columbus side that seems likely to end up needing to travel for the play-in game.
Midfielders
Philip Zinckernagel (16.1m) – Double game week for Chicago's main man. He should be midfielder #1 on everyone's sheet.
Rodrigo De Paul (12.1m) – Midfielder #2 on your sheet, if you want him for one of your Miami players. 9 points last DGW, 13 in the prior one. He'll get you 4-5 points at a minimum each game, though his ceiling does not appear to be that high. Still, his season average suggests he'll be in the double digits, a really nice place to be for any midfielder. My only hesitation is you can get similar results at this position from other high-ceiling players in single games.
Andre Franco (?) – Chicago's new #10, he has played 90 minutes with an assist in the last two games for Chicago. He's not in the game yet, so you may not be able to take him. Otherwise, I would like him as the second-best Chicago player this week behind Zinck.
Jonathan Bamba (9.1m) – If you're itching for another Chicago mid, it should probably be Bamba based on recent playing time and results. It could be Gutierrez or D'Avilla, as they both have had great weeks recently, but I don't really trust any of these guys to be highly recommended. Bamba is the closest.
Martin Ojeda (17.9m) – Season average of 8.4 points, 5-week average of 10.2, 3-week of 8.7. What's not to love? Good home matchup against Columbus this week, who have clearly lost an edge from their dominant sides of the past few years.
Thomas Müller (11.6m) – Had an assist in 62 minutes against Seattle last week. Should be back to 90 minutes against San Jose this week, an enticing matchup for him to try and match his hat trick his last home game against Philadelphia.
Albert Rusnak (13.7m) – Showed he's all the way back against Vancouver, getting an assist on a corner and thundering home a deflected ball sitting in front of the net for Seattle's second goal. 10 KPs was a great sign going forward for Albert, and this week will be an intense Cascadia Cup rivalry match (though Vancouver has already claimed that trophy).
Hany Mukhtar (17.4m) – A consideration every week, this week he's at Montreal. Should probably have a great week, though Nashville has struggled in some recent road games. His Saturday match is early though, so you could preview his score on the bench before seeing how you want to set up the rest of your lineup.
Evander (17.1m) – An every-week player. The Red Bulls had been having a good year at home, but recent results have slid them down the table and firmly out of the playoff picture. Evander should be good to go.
Jack McGlynn (15.6m) – Last week's score was not great but I am still a big believer in his ability and talent. Home to San Diego will be a tough matchup for 12th place Houston, but they could jump into a playoff spot with a win and other results in their favor.
Anders Dreyer (16.7m) – Incredibly disappointing performance at home against San Jose with a 1-0 loss, despite winning the xG battle 2.3 to 0.9. It just was not San Diego's night, similar to their 3-1 loss to Minnesota a couple of weeks ago where the xG was 2.2 to 0.7. I think Dreyer and San Diego will be fine, but they will need to tighten up for the playoffs.
Carles Gil (14.3m) – Playing away this week, but it will be against a Miami squad carrying a lot of minutes. He has not been nearly as good or consistent as he was earlier this year, but he could be a very good differential.
Kristoffer Velde (10.7m) – Another big differential potential here, Portland has not lost to Seattle at Lumen in what feels like a decade. And the truth is it is close, May 2017 was the last "win" for Seattle over Portland, with 2018 featuring a "win" for Seattle in the playoffs that was a 2-1 regular time result that sent the game to OT, with Portland advancing on PKs. Portland has been shut out once at CenturyLink/Lumen Field since 2017 (a 0-0 draw in 2023 that was 0.3 xG vs 0.3 xG). All that said, it seems unlikely this is Seattle's year to break that curse and Velde could be a big part of Portland's attack this week.
Forwards
Leo Messi (17.3m) – He's locked until he rests for some reason. Ridiculous player and season.
Hugo Cuypers (10.7m) – A double week for a prolific striker is nice. Needs to score to be viable, so probably a bench guy, but still a very high ceiling this week.
Luis Suarez (11.0m) – If you want him he's there. He's on yellow-card warning though, so maybe not the best play. Still, his ceiling this week is second only to Messi.
Son Heung-min/Denis Bouanga (14.0m/15.2m) – Any way you slice it, these two players have been insanely good the last seven weeks for LAFC. Son is averaging 12.4 points per game since joining the league. Bouanga's five-week average is 14 points, scoring double digits every week in that span. Extremely strong one-two punch that shows no signs of slowing down. Having both this week is completely reasonable.
Sam Surridge (13.7m) – Another goal last week. He's not as good on the road, just one road goal in his past six road games, but that may just be an outlier. At Montreal is as good a place to score as any.
Petar Musa (13.0m) – He's very good and Dallas plays the Galaxy at home this week. A differential choice for sure, but he could really shine this week.
Captain Considerations
Leo Messi – If he is not your captain at this point I'm not sure what you are doing, unless you have some insider info that he is not playing for some reason.
Philip Zinckernagel – If you want to be clever, you could go for big Zinck. Not recommended though.
Luis Suarez – An alternative to Messi if you want to take a massive risk, especially considering his yellow-card warning. But we've seen him outscore Messi sometimes, so it would not be the craziest option.
Son Heung-min – His 12+ point average is plenty good enough to consider captaining. I don't think it's a great idea though with some good DGW candidates.
