Viewed through one lens, the Seattle Sounders have never entered the MLS Playoffs in a less advantageous position. In the 16 seasons they’ve qualified, their No. 5 seeding in the Western Conference is the lowest they’ve ever been. Their 10th-place spot in the Supporters’ Shield standings is also lower than in any season other than 2022 when they missed the playoffs entirely.
But to suggest they have no chance to win their third-ever MLS Cup is just being defeatist for no good reason.
While they are nothing like a favorite, they definitely have a puncher’s chance. As my colleague Tim Foss said earlier today, it’s also just a lot more fun to have hope.
Reasons for optimism
Let’s start out with reasons I think the Sounders at least have a chance to win this thing:
They’ve already proven themselves
It’s obviously true that the Sounders finished below four other Western Conference teams and nine total teams. But unlike all those teams but the Vancouver Whitecaps (Canadian Championship) and Philadelphia Union (Supporters’ Shield), the Sounders have actually won something this year. Even if you believe the Leagues Cup was the third or fourth most important trophy the Sounders were chasing, winning it is still a proof of concept that this squad is capable of stepping up on a big stage.
Let’s not overlook their path to the title, either.
- The 7-0 win over Cruz Azul obviously got a lot of attention. At the time, Cruz Azul was considered arguably the best team outside of Europe. But what hasn’t been as widely reported is that Cruz Azul is having another fantastic season in Liga MX, currently sitting second in the table with 28 points from 13 matches.
- The Sounders also beat Club Tijuana, a team that is currently seventh in the table with just three losses for the season. Notably, two of those losses are to Santos Laguna and Club Puebla, the two other Liga MX teams the Sounders beat during Leagues Cup.
- The Sounders then beat the LA Galaxy in the semifinals, which didn’t seem like that great of a win given their spot at the bottom of the MLS standings. Since that game, however, the Galaxy have managed to improve enough to avoid the Wooden Spoon and actually went 6-4-2 over their final 12 games across all competitions.
- The final was, of course, against Inter Miami, who finished the season as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference after going 6-1-1 with 27 goals scored in their final eight matches of the season.
You can certainly discount the Leagues Cup as a separate competition and therefore irrelevant to the Sounders’ quest to win MLS Cup, but they’ve also performed reasonably well against the teams they’re most likely to encounter in the playoffs.
- Although they lost both of their games against Minnesota United, they were the much better team in their most recent meeting and were a bit unlucky to lose 1-0.
- They split their games with LAFC despite playing a rotated lineup in both meetings; they were, on balance, the better team in their most recent meeting with the Vancouver Whitecaps; and they split their two meetings with San Diego FC.
- The Sounders have only faced four of the nine Eastern Conference playoff teams this year, but they went 3-1-2 against Inter Miami, Nashville SC, New York City FC, Columbus Crew and Charlotte FC.
Their record is better than you might think
By finishing fifth in the Western Conference and 10th in the Supporters’ Shield standings, the Sounders go into the playoffs in a worse spot than any previous MLS Cup winner. That’s obviously not ideal.
But if we take a more holistic view, the situation doesn’t look quite so bad.
If instead of looking at their relative standings we look at the Sounders’ record, a run to MLS Cup would actually be pretty unremarkable. In fact, since MLS expanded its schedule to 34 games in 2011, 4 of the 14 winners had a worse points per game record than the Sounders (1.62) did this year. That includes the 2016 Sounders, who averaged just 1.41 points per game.
During that same stretch, there’s been at least one finalist with a worse record than the Sounders in all but three MLS Cups (2013, 2020 and 2022). In the 13 non-Covid seasons, 15 of the 26 finalists have had a point total no greater than the Sounders’ 55 points. There are also three MLS Cup finalists during this stretch who came from the No. 5 seed or lower, including the 2024 New York Red Bulls, who got to MLS Cup out of the No. 7 seed and playing their last three games on the road.
Using more advanced metrics — American Soccer Analysis’ database goes back to 2013 — the 2025 Sounders stack up pretty well against historic MLS Cup winners. For instance, the Sounders expected goal-difference of .37 per game is better than all but five of the previous 13 winners and their 1.62 expected points per game are better than all but six of those winners.
This is all a rather convoluted way of saying that there’s plenty of precedence for a team of the Sounders’ quality to make a deep run in the playoffs.
Offensive depth
With 58 goals scored during the regular season, this has been the second-highest scoring season in Sounders history (behind only 2014). There are two things that I think bode particularly well for this team in that regard.
One is that the variety of scorers has never been better. The Sounders had 10 different players score at least two goals in league play, which is the most they’ve had to hit that (admittedly low) bar in a season since they had 11 do that in 2011.
But if we zoom out a bit, the Sounders had 14 different players score at least two goals across all competitions. That includes players like Osaze De Rosario, who had five goals and even scored the game-winner in the Leagues Cup final as the team’s No. 3 forward option. It also includes Georgi Minoungou, who had two goals and six assists in about 850 minutes.
The Sounders just have a lot more offensive weapons than they’ve ever had before, but especially in comparison to last year when just five players had at least two league goals and just nine players who hit that mark in all competitions.
The other thing that seems to differentiate this year’s team from previous versions is the Sounders’ ability to create chances from open play.
Only looking at open-play goals, the 2025 Sounders are right on par with the 2014 team. In the entire ASA database of 316 team-seasons, the 2025 Sounders average of 1.21 open-play goals per game ranks as the 41st highest total.
Even more remarkable is their open-play chance creation, where the Sounders are averaging 1.41 xG per game. That’s the seventh highest total in the 316-team seasons in the database.
This is more of a theory than one I’ve been able to really test, but I feel like open-play scoring is a better indicator of playoff success than raw scoring in part because it says something about how teams play and feels a bit more repeatable.
No one does playoffs quite like Schmetzer
As good as the Sounders have been in the regular season under Brian Schmetzer, they’ve been even better in the playoffs. Heading into the 2025 playoffs, only the legendary Bruce Arena and Sigi Schmid have more total playoff wins than Schmetzer’s 18.
Of the 17 other head coaches with teams in the playoffs, only LAFC’s Steve Cherundolo has a better playoff winning percentage than Schmetzer’s .683. The Sounders have won 16 of 22 playoff rounds and are 10-5 in single-elimination playoff games since Schmetzer took over, advancing at least as far as the Western Conference semifinals in all but two of his nine seasons, have made the Western Conference finals in 5 of 9 seasons, played in four MLS Cups and won two. He might not be the best-ever playoff coach, but he’s definitely in the conversation.
Part of what makes Schmetzer so good in the playoffs is that he’s ultimately really pragmatic. That can sometimes be seen as a diss, but I mean in the most charitable way possible. Schmetzer just isn’t beholden to any particular style and is willing to do whatever makes the most sense.
In the past, that has meant being as good defensively as possible and hoping his team can find a goal through pure grit. This year, it might mean taking some bigger chances.
All I know is that I’d never bet against him.
