Hopefully rotation last week did not hit you as hard as it did me for my Kickbase squads. I knew captaining Messi was a risk but went for it anyway. Still, it is frustrating when we learn just a couple of hours before the game that Messi (and RDP) didn't travel. There was no warning on the availability report, and no reporters had a read on the situation earlier. It seems that going forward risk mitigation will be valuable.
That some of the top players from Round 4 were from Vancouver and San Diego was not surprising, as both are top teams and were taking on vulnerable opponents, but key guys like Muller, Tverskov and Dreyer who were rested missed out on the big points. Meanwhile, some top attackers from non-CCC clubs had a feast – particularly Musa, Nico Fernandez and Guilherme. There were some other top performances by New England's offense (out of nowhere), Atlanta's offense, and Seattle's defense. Predictions are hard, especially when teams are intentionally running out weaker than normal squads.
So far this year we only have a few runaway standout players, primarily Berhalter, with Nico Fernandez close on Sofascore and Kickbase and Dreyer close on Kickbase. But there is plenty of value to be found beyond the top tier options. I expect some of the guys we know are stars to pick up the pace now that they can focus on league play (Dreyer, Messi, Evander, Muller), but there are a lot of good options out there who can find success any given week. We'll try and figure out where the value lies.
Week 5 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Schwake, Thomas, Gavran, Lloris
Defenders
Palacios, Ragen/Lopez, Zimmerman, Porteous, Laborda
Midfielders
Berhalter, Evander, Muktar/Espinoza (Mid/Fwd), Tverskov, Pereyra, Mihailovic, Aaronson, Guilherme, Reus, Buget: Choiniere
Forwards
Messi, Dreyer, Surridge, Musa, Klauss/Pec, Joveljic, Navarro, White, Denkey
Week 5 schedule
Note that all the CCC squads are coming off midweek play, with San Diego, LAFC, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia returning from long travel down south. We could see some additional rotation if guys have expended themselves in close, disappointing games (looking at you, Cincy and Philly), but the following weekend is an international break so there is rest on the horizon anyway. I expect less rotation this weekend (knock on wood).
The Good
Nashville hosts Orlando, fresh off their gutsy 1-1 "win" on away goals against Miami. They rotated the prior weekend and still got a shutout road win against Columbus. This is MLS, so anything can happen, but this seems like the most lopsided matchup of the week.
Colorado at Kansas City may be a surprising choice, but SKC has allowed the second-most expected goals in the league, just behind Orlando. Colorado was not quite up for it against Seattle or NYC on the road, but those are two of the very top teams and Colorado took care of Portland and pummeled the Galaxy after Pec got himself sent off. I think they take the game to SKC and get their first road win, despite SKC's scrappiness.
San Diego hosts RSL and will be looking to maintain their league momentum now that they crashed out of CCC action despite their first-round heroics. RSL is coming off three wins but don't have a clean sheet yet and seem unlikely to earn one in this match.
The Interesting
A lot of games fit into this category this week.
I like Toronto at home against Columbus, who have struggled, especially if Sargent gets the start. But Columbus is always a threat and has been somewhat unlucky in their games.
I think Atlanta can beat DC at home, but DC has proven they can will their way into goals. Can Atlanta make a run this year by establishing a huge homefield advantage again?
Dallas and Houston play in a Texas derby with each team having a shutout loss to LAFC and some decent results against other squads. I'm not fully sold on Houston yet but Dallas has just one win. This one is an open question.
Will St. Louis finally turn their around their luck (xG stats suggest they should have more like 6 points) or will New England turn their blistering 6-1 demolition of Cincinnati's rotated squad into a good run of form? I don't really trust either of them.
Portland play at home against the Galaxy, who are coming off some travel. The Galaxy had it easy against Mt. Pleasant but have been pipped in their league games by Colorado and SKC as they missed Pec due to his suspension. The Galaxy may be favored but weird things happen at Providence Park.
The Important
Vancouver is heavy betting favorites over visiting San Jose, but San Jose's only stumble this year was being unable to crack Seattle's shell and conceding a goal on a quick break. They still put up a huge xG advantage over the course of that shelling (with not that many seriously threatening chances, but they add up) but still lost. Vancouver, meanwhile, just lost 5-1 on aggregate to Seattle, including a 3-0 loss at home. I think Vancouver is likely to win, but San Jose has a huge chance to make a statement by taking advantage of Vancouver's fixture congestion and taking the game to them instead.
Cincinnati hosts Montreal this weekend. Both teams look like they might be very bad, but have had some bright spots to point to for some hope for the season. Cincinnati certainly has the talent advantage, but their defense is in shambles and their offense only works if Evander or Denkey is having a superstar sort of game. Otherwise, they lack the cohesion going forward to beat teams with organized defenses. Cincy desperately needs these points to move up the standings and get into contention.
Finally, NYCFC hosting Miami is probably the top tier matchup of the week. First in the East taking on Third in the East. I think Miami will need Messi and RDP to travel for this one, considering the stakes and looking ahead to the rest available in the international break (Argentina has called them up, but their only game isn't until the 31st after the Finalissima was canceled earlier this month). I wouldn't bet my house on that, but I would probably bet $20. Being out of CCC, these are the kind of points Miami will need to win another Supporter's Shield. And NYCFC are very good, so this will be a fun showdown.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Nashville - They've only conceded two goals all year, best in the East. Despite getting burned by him resting last week, I'm still recommending Palacios, he should be good to go at home for this one.
Seattle - They’ve only conceded three goals and have four shutouts in six games played, including road shutouts at Vancouver, San Jose and St. Louis. I think they will frustrate Minnesota and earn another road shutout win. Ragen is the best bet on the defense, though you could gamble that Antino Lopez gets another start at CB with Alex Roldan at RB. He had a standout game against San Jose, but Seattle went back to Roldan at CB with Kossa-Rienzi at RB for their CCC game against Vancouver. Pick him with caution.
Toronto - One of my more risky picks of the week, they looked set to earn a CS against New York until a loose ball in the box fell to the feet of New York's DP striker late into stoppage. I think Columbus will continue to struggle against Toronto and Zimmerman will be a big factor. Zimmerman had a very rough first two weeks but has had strong scores the past two weeks. I would not be surprised to see Toronto rounding into form as their rebuilt team continues to gel.
LAFC - I know they are playing at Austin, but LAFC's defense is still stout on the road and I don't trust the new-look Austin offense to do enough. Fair warning, Austin has scored in each of their matches so far, but I think that streak ends this week against a strong LAFC defense. I think Porteous is the likeliest to start and scores well enough, though Palencia will probably start as well. I am less confident about Tafari and Segura but think they are probably 80+% likely to start.
Laborda - With Blackmon out, Laborda is the guy to lead Vancouver's defense. He's not as strong of a defender, but he always seems to be able to mix into the attack. He had a monster game against Minnesota, notching a goal with a fortuitous deflection as well as an assist and a shutout. He's worth taking even if Vancouver concede.
Midfielders
Berhalter - He's a machine that isn't likely to quit. He was a bit overshadowed at times by Cristian Roldan and Snyder Brunell but had his moments to make an impact. San Jose's midfield is not quite at that level yet, so I think Berhalter will be plenty influential once again. Perhaps not likely to have another G+A match, but still a strong game.
Evander - Cincinnati sure look lost lately, but having Montreal come to town might be the trick to get their attack on track. He's an expensive option, but he may be a differential as players ignore Cincy's struggling offense.
Mukhtar/Espinoza (Mid/Fwd) - Home against Orlando, they should be able to go for another match with rest coming up on the other side of the weekend.
Tverskov - Another one who shouldn't need rest, I think he'll be back to his usual high scores at home against a defensively vulnerable RSL side.
Pereyra - A bright spot for Minnesota this year, he's been consistently putting up solid scores even in losses. Seattle has shown a willingness to sit in and defend when it suits them, so Pereya should see plenty of the ball and the opportunity to put up bonus points, even if Minnesota ends up getting shut out. If they don't, he'll likely be on the score sheet; he was excellent in Minnesota's home games against Seattle last year.
Mihailovic - Even without Sargent starting, Djordje still found his way onto the score sheet last week with an assist, plus four key passes. I think he has an even better opportunity this week and am trying to find room for him in my squads.
Aaronson - He was brought in to run the show for Colorado and he does seem to be growing into the role. He goes to SKC this week and should make a huge splash. Last weekend at NYC was not his best game, but he should find much more room against SKC's shaky midfield and defense.
Guilherme - Small sample size, but he seems to be a major hit for Houston so far with three goals and an assist in their two wins. He did not do much in their loss to LAFC, but you can forgive him considering the LAFC defense and Houston playing down a man for over half the match and eventually going down to 9. Dallas's defense has been very vulnerable so far, so I like Guilherme to continue his hot streak.
Reus - I think at this point Portland's defense is an easy target. Reus is mostly the beneficiary of being able to facilitate strong play around him, so with Pec and Klauss firing, he should get points. I am a little concerned about his minutes, but Portland have allowed two or more goals in every match so far this year. The Galaxy can easily match that.
Budget: Choiniere - I am not banking on him replicating his brace against St. Louis, but he is a 90-minute player as long as Eustaquio is injured so is a cheap entry into a strong midfield. A reasonable alternative to Mehmeti and Tsakiris.
Forwards
Messi - Assuming he makes the trip, I think he'll be as good as ever against NYCFC. A more difficult environment, to be sure, but he can succeed anywhere. Of course, I can understand if you balk at the price and the uncertainty of his availability.
Dreyer - Back at home he should be starting, and he should be hungry after such a disappointing result at Toluca. High ceiling and high floor.
Surridge - Back home against Orlando, he should feast.
Musa - Houston's defense has not been stellar and Musa has been dominant so far this year, dragging Dallas into relevance. You could do much worse for your forward choice.
Klauss/Pec - I like Pec better, but either could be very good options against a very vulnerable Portland defense. I will try to fit one or the other into most of my teams.
Joveljic - He just keeps scoring, and I cannot imagine where SKC would be without him. Colorado has been decent this year but have given up five road goals.
Navarro - On the other side of the coin, if you, like me, expect SKC to concede a couple to Colorado, Navarro is a strong choice of goalscorer.
White - Tied for league lead in goals scored, he can finish the multitude of high-quality chances that Vancouver generates. San Jose has had an elite defense so far, but they have not been tested by as strong of an offense as Vancouver.
Denkey - He had a massive game against Tigres in the first leg, then had the lone goal for Cincinnati in the road leg that very so nearly put them through. Playing Montreal is a reasonable spot to get back on track on offense.
Captain considerations
Messi - If you plan to take him, he should be on your captain list, full stop.
Dreyer - He should be back and has a great matchup. I like him a lot.
Surridge - Home against Orlando is a fantastic place to be.
Zimmerman - Major risk here considering Toronto's and his struggles the first two weeks, but he's looked up for it these past two games. If he keeps playing like that he could be a best XI defender again.
Finest Fifteen
Top-choice formation with 2GK, 4 Def, 5 Mid, 4 Fwd
Messi, Dreyer, Surridge, Pec
Berhalter, Tverskov, Evander, Mihailovic, Guilherme
Zimmerman, Palacios, Porteous, Ragen
Schwake, Thomas
