SEATTLE — Through their first eight games, no team had over-achieved their underlying numbers more than the Seattle Sounders. Their 19 points had come on about 11 xPoints, which was actually much closer to the bottom of the league than the top. It was certainly efficient, but unlikely to be sustainable.
Something was going to have to give; either their underlying numbers would need to improve or their results were likely to suffer.
The good news is that the Sounders have largely improved their underlying numbers over the past two games. The bad news is that their results have also regressed somewhat with consecutive ties.
The latest of those was Saturday’s 1–1 tie against San Diego FC in which the Sounders piled up 3.55 xG and collected a season-high 2.35 xPoints, according to American Soccer Analysis’ data. The Sounders fired off a season-high 26 shots, a remarkable 20 of which came from inside the penalty area. But San Diego were able to block nine of those and goalkeeper Duran Ferree made several good stops.
“We created a lot of chances and came up short,” Sounders head coach Brian Schmetzer said in the postgame press conference. “We had a positive second half, but it still feels like dropping points at home.”
Like the tie against Sporting KC, this one came against a team who has been in a bit of a slump, which only adds to the sense that more points were there to be had. With this tie, San Diego has not won in nine league matches. A year ago, San Diego never went longer than three games without a win and only did that once.
For a good deal of this one, they looked poised to snap that skid. Although the Sounders started well, it was San Diego who scored first when Marcus Ingvartsen got inside Nouhou and scored in the 18th minute. The Sounders seemed to find the equalizer about 10 minutes later when Jesús Ferreira played in Jordan Morris, who finished well only for the offside flag to negate the goal (replays were, at best, inconclusive).
The Sounders really started to tilt the field around the 60th minute when Schmetzer began using his bench. The most consequential moves ended up being the inclusion of Danny Musovski at forward and dropping Albert Rusnák back a line. Rusnák seemed to find a bit more space to maneuver, while Musovski was causing San Diego all sorts of trouble with his ability to make darting runs. Around the 70th minute, the Sounders really took control, outshooting San Diego 14–5 in the final 20 minutes. That stretch may have been the most dynamic the Sounders have looked all season.
The most consequential chance came on a corner when Musovski got inside his mark to slam home a flicked pass from Cristian Roldan. That closed a stretch of about 10 minutes in which the Sounders generated at least four high-quality chances.
Schmetzer seemed to indicate that the Sounders’ success with that personnel group may cause him to reflect a bit more on his lineup choices. While Snyder Brunell looked good when he was on the pitch, the Sounders did dictate more of the match after he came off.
The Sounders’ biggest challenge over the past two games has simply been turning all the chances they’ve created into goals, and Musovski has at least shown himself capable of doing that in the past.
“I have to reflect on some of my lineup choices,” Schmetzer said. “We have to get someone to get hot and we have to get someone to put the ball in the back of the net.”
Frustrating as these results have been, the Sounders haven’t lost any ground in the Supporters’ Shield or Western Conference races. Thanks to the San Jose Earthquakes and Vancouver Whitecaps playing to a 1–1 tie of their own, the Sounders remain eight points off the pace with two games in hand.
They’ll have a chance to close that gap on Wednesday when they host the Earthquakes.
