Today kicks off the mega third round of group stage days. Six matches in three windows to decide who moves on to the knockout stages and whose World Cup is over.
Dave Clark
Today's games
Switzerland vs. Canada
Time: 12 pm Pacific
Where: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar
Time: 12 pm Pacific
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Scotland vs. Brazil
Time: 3 pm Pacific
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Morocco vs. Haiti
Time: 3 pm Pacific
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Czechia vs. Mexico
Time: 6 pm Pacific
Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, CDMX
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
South Africa vs. South Korea
Time: 6 pm Pacific
Where: Estadio BBVA, Monterrey, NL
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
The new issue of IV: The Sounder at Heart magazine is now available for pre-order. Issue 2 will focus on Seattle’s role in the 2026 World Cup.
What’s interesting today?
Is the 48-team World Cup working?
Thus far, when considering just the tournament itself, yes. The stadiums have been full, fans haven’t burnt out and the matches have been plenty competitive. Worries that teams 33-48 wouldn’t be able to hang and we’d see tons of blowouts have been unfounded.
Whatever the reason for the expanded World Cup - money and buying support for FIFA elections - it’s mostly worked so far, but today we start seeing the real test of this new format.
The third round of matches will force us to confront the realities of third place teams advancing to the knockout stages for the first time. Instead of theories and projections about how many points and what goal difference it’d take to be one of the eight third place teams to move on versus being one of the eight going home, we’ll get actual results.
Kind of …
Because they can only play Matchday 3 for three groups per day, most third place finishers won’t know if they’re advancing until a day, or two, or even three later. Does that make for compelling entertainment?
We’ve seen flashes of this at the Euros, Africa Cup of Nations and Asian Cup, where they’d had 24 teams, but never on this scale. Never with 48 teams and this many moving parts over this many days.
Whereas we’re used to seeing Matchday 3 at the World Cup result in teams celebrating or falling to the ground in anguish, knowing they either finished in the top two of their group or not, this time we’ll have a lot of teams aimlessly walking around, wondering whether the next couple days will deliver them a spot in the knockout rounds.
We’ll also have some dead rubbers, with matches that have no bearing on the future rounds, many matches with one team that has nothing to play for and others where it benefits both teams to play to a draw.
That also takes us to Bracket Watch. Whereas we used to be able to look at a bracket and know the winner of Group A plays the runner up of Group B, then on and on through the bracket, to understand a team’s path, that’s not the case anymore because third place finishers can slide into so many different places in the bracket and the draw benefits of being first or second vary so much now that teams may not go all-out to win their groups they way they used to. That’s not inherently bad, or even really a competitive issue, but it alters the stakes of these third games and may make it a less compelling watch without the clarity of consequences.
Even if all those worst-case scenarios do play out, that’s not to say that the expansion to 48 teams was bad. Getting more new teams into the tournament has been fun and who’s going to turn down more World Cup games? I have other concerns about the impact it’s had on qualifying and what that means for soccer on the ground, as well as the many potential issues about the demands on hosts in the expanded format, but as far as the on-field World Cup product goes, we haven’t really touched the downsides yet. These last matchdays, the confusing scenarios and questionable stakes could change the calculus some. Let’s see how it plays out.
One team that does have pretty clear stakes and a lot on the line today is Canada.
They technically still have to clinch advancement to the knockout stages for the first time in their country’s history, but it would take an absolute shellacking for them to even flirt with potentially not advancing and they are not playing Honduras so moving on is functionally in the bag.
If they can manage a win or draw against Switzerland, they will win Group B and get to stay in Vancouver for the round of 32. They’d also get to play a third place finisher at BC Place and, should they win, would get a fourth match at this tournament in Vancouver, likely against Portugal or Colombia, either of which has been overly impressive. With that route, a quarterfinal place would still be a longshot, but it would be on the table.
But if Canada lose to Switzerland, they will have played their final match in Canada. They’d get shipped to SoFi Stadium as the Group B runner up, where they’d meet the runner up from Group A, likely South Korea. Now, the Taegeuk Warriors aren’t especially good, but Los Angeles’ gigantic Korean population would make it a de facto away game. Then, even if they won that round of 32 contest, they’d be lined up to meet the Group F winner, which will be either Netherlands or Japan, two very good teams.
So all that’s on the line today is playing in front of a rowdy crowd in a stadium where they are very comfortable not just once, but potentially twice, or hitting the road for much tougher opponents. Advancing to the knockout stages alone is historic for the Canadians, but they reasonably think they can go farther than the round of 32. Whether they do might rest on whether they can get a result against Switzerland today.
Brazil have a lot to play for today against Scotland. First of all, they need a win or draw to ensure they don’t slip below the Scots into third place in Group C. Second, even if they do get a result, they’ll be trying to hold off Morocco for first place. But there isn’t that much tension in either.
Scotland have done well at the tournament, but the Seleção shouldn’t be overly stressed to get a result against them and there’s not much difference between finishing first or second in the group. The winner of Group C will play the runner up from Group F and vice versa. With Netherlands and Japan set to finish in the top two, but the order being unclear and both teams looking very good at the tournament, there’s little reason to think Brazil or Morocco are better off in first place than second.
What is really on the line today for Brazil is whether they can find a method of play that gives them a chance to make a run at this World Cup.
Thus far, they’ve taken four points almost entirely on the back of Vinicius Jr. That Brazil are playing through their superstar is hardly a problem, but that they have looked so bereft of any other ideas is reason for concern. It’s not realistic to expect Vini to do it all and they need to develop other options.
Raphinha should have been Plan B, but that’s not going to be the case in the next week or two after he was injured last time out. Now it’ll be up to Lucas Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães and Matheus Cunha to give Vini some help and they are going to have to figure out how to do that against Scotland or they are going to be fighting an uphill battle in the knockout stages no matter who they play.
