You did it. You've made it to the final day of the new, supersized group stage with six games on tap and maybe a little conspiracy.
Dave Clark
Today's games
Panama vs. England
Time: 2 pm Pacific
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Croatia vs. Ghana
Time: 2 pm Pacific
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Colombia vs. Portugal
Time: 4:30 pm Pacific
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan
Time: 4:30 pm Pacific
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Algeria vs. Austria
Time: 7 pm Pacific
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
Jordan vs. Argentina
Time: 7 pm Pacific
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
TV: Fox, Telemundo
Online: Fox One, Peacock
The new issue of IV: The Sounder at Heart magazine is now available for pre-order. Issue 2 will focus on Seattle’s role in the 2026 World Cup.
What’s interesting today?
With this being the first World Cup with 48 teams, all anyone has been able to do is guess what kind of impacts the new format would have. Exactly how the battle for third place teams advancing would play out was probably at the top of the list, but it appears we have some clarity and there is one big lesson.
It really pays to play as late as possible.
When the third round of matches started, it was a near certainty that third place teams on four points would go through. The same was true of teams on three points with a neutral or positive goal difference. Even teams at -1 had a better than 90% chance to advance, with a goal difference as poor at -4 still giving teams roughly 50/50 odds.
It looked like it would be a very permissive group of third place teams, which is why Scotland were reasonably confident despite losing to Brazil, 3-0, on Wednesday evening to end their group stage. They had three points and a -3 goal difference. That looked likely to be through.
Then South Korea inexplicably lost on Wednesday night, falling into third place on three points and a mere -1 goal difference.
And Ecuador kicked off Thursday’s action with a shocking win over Germany, putting them in third place on four points.
Suddenly the squeeze was on the third place finishers and Scotland’s 70% odds to advance after their match had been cut in half.
It got worse when Sweden did little more than try to hold on for a point against Japan, which they did successfully to hit four points. And Australia and Paraguay may as well have conspired to draw to put both on four points.
By Thursday night, there were four third place teams on four points. That’s half of the third place advancement spots claimed.
When Senegal kicked off Friday afternoon’s action, they did it with no points and a -3 goal difference. Had they played on Wednesday, they would probably be confident in their chances with a two-goal win, but two days later, they knew better and completely sold out to batter Iraq, 5-0. That put them on three points with a +2 goal difference, clinching the fifth third place spot in the knockout stages.
To make matters worse, Iran managed to snatch a draw against Egypt, bringing them up to three points and a 0 goal difference.
Before the final day of group stage matches even begin today, Scotland’s only chance of advancing is Croatia lose by at least three goals and DR Congo don’t win and Algeria lose by two goals or Austria lose by four goals.
And Croatia and DR Congo already know what they have to do to advance. Meanwhile, Algeria and Austria play each other so they would be wise to conspire for a draw, ensuring both advance to the knockout stages, something they could not risk had they played on Wednesday.
There’s not really much FIFA could do about this because you’re not going to schedule all 24 third round matches at the same time, but it’s become pretty clear that you want to be in groups J, K or L if you can, and anyone in A, B or C is at a disadvantage. Knowing what you need is just that big of a help, and it’s probably something worth keeping in mind for the next World Cup when we start trying to guess what a team needs to get through in third place. It’s going to be higher than we expect because the teams are going to know what they need and go for it.
If there is anything that FIFA can do to fix the mess, the Algeria/Austria match will probably make them have to investigate it.
Both teams are on three points entering the last day of Group J action and four points are guaranteed to put third place through to the knockout stages. For two countries that look at advancing as the goal, with anything that happens after that gravy, it’s hard to imagine either willing to risk a loss by going for the win.
The two captains probably can’t walk to midfield, shake hands and stand on the ball for 90 minutes, but how much do they have to feign an effort to score and win?
This has happened in the World Cup before, most famously in 1982 when West Germany and Austria played to a 1-0 scoreline to advance both teams in a match so contrived and transparent that it was dubbed the Disgrace of Gijon.
It was after that match that FIFA began scheduling a group’s final matches at the same time. Without a better solution so long as only some third place teams advance, they might be embarrassed with no recourse.
Unless they use it as an excuse to line their pockets with a 64-team World Cup, that is. Uh oh.
Before Algeria and Austria consider engaging in fraud, Croatia and Ghana will have to decide whether they want to play one of the best games of Matchday 3 or they too would like to agree to a draw.
Ghana are already through to the knockout stages, having clinched advancement with their well-earned, shock draw with England last time out. Croatia have not, sitting in third place on three points and a -1 goal difference. Should Croatia lose, even by just one goal, they are very likely to be out of the tournament.
If their response to that threat is to attack Ghana and go for the win, we could get a banger.
Croatia have been potent in the attack in their first two matches. They are total sickos, bringing their wingbacks centrally at times and having them run over the top, dropping wingers into the deep midfield, letting strikers pull out wide. Formation and role is more of a nebulous concept for the Croatians and it’s made it hell on opposing defenses to track. It’s also made it difficult for them to defend when they give the ball away and you can bet Ghana would love to turn their low block into a counterattacking machine.
But, like Paraguay and Australia before them, and presumably Algeria and Austria after them, both teams could benefit from a draw. Ghana would secure second place in the group and Croatia would clinch a spot in the knockout stages with four points.
The hope is that Ghana say there’s no reason for them to participate in a farce, with a knockout stage spot already in hand. Fingers crossed.
Finally, it'll be worth keeping an eye on England and Panama. It has nothing to do with the match, which should be lopsided, or the stakes, with England very likely to win and clinch the group against an already-eliminated Panama. You might want to tune in to take a look at the pitch, though.
The playing surface at MetLife Stadium has been under scrutiny since its very first game, when Brazil and Morocco both said it was poor and forced them to alter how they played. France was next and had equally harsh words for it, calling it dry, slow and bumpy, with Adrien Rabiot saying it was like an artificial surface.
MetLife is one of the NFL stadiums with artificial turf that got a complex, expensive temporary grass system placed over it for this World Cup and it's certainly been the worst reviewed of them all so far. That's especially problematic because it will host the final, putting the most watched sporting event in the world on a surface that players don't think they can play well on.
Worse, there's reason to think it's going to get worse as the tournament goes on. Putting grass in was one thing, but maintaining it for more than a month is another. We're already seeing the temporary pitches elsewhere degrade, with even SoFi Stadium, which drew rave reviews after its first game, causing players to slip for much of the second half in its most recent match.
If these temporary pitches are going to play worse as time goes on at the stadiums where the playing surface started in good shape, how bad will it be at the stadiums where it didn't?
We'll see today how MetLife Stadium's pitch is holding up. Hopefully it hasn't gotten any worse.
