Thursday marks five months since the Reign hit rock bottom, getting shut out for the fifth consecutive game in a disheartening 2-0 home loss to Gotham FC. Things were looking dire, with the team in a freefall and no clear indication of why the vibes were so rotten or how they might break out of it.
Steve Voght
After our friends at The Cooler Guild hired an Etsy witch to give a blessing and remove the scoring curse, the Reign went on a tear with goals in 17 straight games, setting a new club record and greatly lifting the spirits of fans and the prospects of the team, although they never climbed higher than 7th place during that stretch since wins didn’t always accompany the goals. Still, the team was firmly in control of their playoff fate until they stumbled against North Carolina last week.
What went wrong?
Perhaps it was that we finally faced off against Boston again. The scoring streak started back on May 22 when Sofia Huerta buried a penalty in the 11th minute of the team’s first-ever game against the Legacy. Seventeen games and 26 goals later, it ended with Jess Fishlock’s 64th minute blast from distance, again against the Legacy. I get that there is beauty in symmetry, but could we not have extended the streak until the Reign’s first game against Boston in 2027 instead?
Perhaps we should have been greedier than just asking that the team score, and instead have requested multiple goals per game to help build up that important goal differential tiebreaker. The Reign’s old record streak came all the way back at the start of that legendary 2014 season when they nearly ran the table. They scored one goal in their 2013 season finale loss to Portland, then scored in 13 straight matches to start the next season, finishing the streak with 11 wins, 2 draws and one loss while racking up 30 goals. While this year’s streak was lengthier, it didn’t feel nearly as dominant, including six losses and a meager 1-0 win against the abysmal Chicago Stars.
Perhaps the team should have been more aggressive in seeking immediate game-changers in the summer transfer window rather than prioritizing roster stability. While the Reign made one move by adding Ivorian forward Ami Diallo, she has yet to feature for the club as she ramps up from an off-season and continues to integrate with her new teammates and get up to speed with a more challenging league. Most other NWSL teams made at least one big move, be it a trade for a player within the league or adding someone from overseas. A lot of teams also saw talent depart, making moves to prepare for the future, so the opportunity was there to shuffle the deck.
Whatever the reasons for the team’s recent stumbles, there is no more room for error. Depending on which statistical model you use to simulate remaining games, Seattle has anywhere from 28% (static model) to 51% (recent form model) odds of making the playoffs as of today.
All three remaining matches are must-win games for the Reign if there is any realistic hope of that happening, and they’ll need a bit of help from elsewhere. Seattle currently sits in 9th place with 40 points, two points out of the final spot and with only a +1 goal differential compared to +11 for North Carolina (42 points), +6 for Portland (43 points) and +16 for Angel City (43 points). GD is the first tiebreaker, followed by total wins.
To start, they need to shake off the recent disappointing results and to get a statement win against Chicago on Sunday. Chicago has given up at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 8 games, with three of those games being losses by five or more goals. This is likely Seattle’s final big chance to pad their goal differential.
They follow that with a trip to Utah, where games are always a challenge at altitude. Frustratingly, this game will only be on four days’ rest and with extra travel back from Chicago, but that’s still twice as much prep time as they had before visiting Denver last month. A few weeks ago this match was shaping up to potentially be a battle for home-field advantage in the playoffs, but now Seattle needs a result just to keep their playoff hopes alive.
When the 2026 schedule was unveiled, the season finale against Orlando originally looked like it might be another brutal battle against a formidable Shield contending opponent. I don’t think anyone predicted how badly the Pride would fall off this year, although as of writing they still have a very, very long-shot chance of sneaking into the final playoff spot. Seattle will have the advantage this year of being at home, and the match will almost certainly be Jess Fishlock’s final one at Lumen Field as she wraps up her illustrious career. Similar to when they hosted Orlando to finish the 2022 season and win the Shield, if other results go their way in the games leading up to this one, the atmosphere should be a big boon.
But what other results do we need to see to even get to that point, assuming the Reign take care of their own business? The simplest path is for the Courage to lose one of their remaining games (vs Wave, at Portland, vs Denver). Alternately, Portland has also been underwhelming recently and will be without Sophia Wilson for the next two matches as she serves a red-card suspension for a hair pull. The Thorns visit Bay, host NC and visit Houston. If any of those games are a multi-goal loss, their advantage in goal differential could be quickly erased should the Reign pick up a couple of multi-goal wins of their own.
The longest shots come in the form of Angel City dropping at least four points, Kansas City losing two of their final three games, or Utah losing two while sacrificing their +9 goal differential. Hopefully those options don’t need to come into consideration, particularly since the Thorns and Courage play each other and any result there other than a draw is beneficial to Seattle.
You can use this tool to experiment with different results for the remaining 24 games across the league and see how each impacts the final standings.
At this point the vibes aren’t rancid, nor are they fresh like a mountain spring. It’s more like a chunk of Roquefort where you’ll really have to bite into it to find out if it’s delicious or turned bad.
