We now have a round of the U.S. Open Cup under our belts, with a handful of narrow escapes and one team, NYCFC, falling to a 90+6th minute winner. Everyone rotated somewhat for the lower-division opponents, though some had stronger lineups than others, which I have highlighted below. It should be mostly business as usual this weekend, though with a double-game week for almost every squad next week, we could see some surprises. An important week to watch lineups and make sure you don't miss anything big.
Week 12 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Roman Celentano (CIN 8.0m), Matt Freese (NYC 7.9m), Carlos Coronel (RBNY 7.9m), Yohei Takaoka (VAN 8.5m)
Defenders
Luca Orellano (CIN 10.0m), Tayvon Gray (NYC $6.2m), Omar Valencia (RBNY 7.5m), Jack Elliott (CHI 6.3m), Tristan Blackmon (VAN 10.2m), Alex Freeman (ORL 8.1m)
Midfielders
Cristian Espinoza (SJ 11.8m), Djordje Mihailovic (COL 11.7m), Hany Mukhtar (NSH 11.0m), Anders Dreyer (SD 11.4m), Federico Bernardeschi (TOR 9.1m), Carles Gil (NE 11.1m), Albert Rusnak (SEA 12.2m), Evander (CIN 11.7m), David Da Costa (POR 10.1m), Brian Gutierrez (CHI 8.9m)
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA 13.1m), Rafael Navarro (COL 10.1m), Chucky Lozano (SD 10.3m), Felipe Mora (POR 9.2m), Hugo Cuypers (CHI 11.4m), Cristian Arango (SJ 12.1m), Budget: Danny Musovski (SEA 6.4m)
Week 12 Schedule
The week before the Big Week is somewhat of an oddball. We have three early games Saturday and then one match at 6:30 PM and one at 7:30 PM and one on Sunday. Not a lot of room for maneuvering your schedule if early players pan out, but we might still make it work.
Also, note that sixteen teams played in the US Open Cup midweek: Charlotte, DC (AET), Nashville, RBNY, Portland, NYCFC (lost), New England, Philadelphia (PK win), Orlando, Minnesota, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, Austin, Houston (AET) and San Jose. Pretty much everyone rotated some amount, though Austin's was strong and Dallas, Orlando and Chicago seemed to have more first-team players starting than most.
The earliest game kicks at 11:30 AM Pacific, between Chicago and Atlanta. Atlanta has been in a spiral, winless in five and just one win since Week 1 against Montreal (themselves a wooden spoon contender). They managed a 1-1 home draw against Nashville last week, so maybe things are looking up, but they have conceded at least two goals in every road match so far. On the flip side, Chicago are also winless in five and also drew their last game at home, 0-0 against Orlando in the kind of 0-0 match where both teams had 2.0 xG.
1:30 PM has two matches, Minnesota hosting Miami and Toronto vs DC. One matchup of top teams, another of bottom teams. The first match is a big test for both teams, Minnesota has only lost to LAFC and Vancouver (though it was a heavily rotated Vancouver, so extra negative points there) and Miami has only lost when they heavily rotated against FC Dallas. Minnesota is favored as the home team, but they may still be missing Kelvin Yeboah and are still integrating Julien Gressel. And, of course, Messi will be on the other side of the field. Should be a tough game both ways.
For Toronto against DC, they are 12th and 14th in the East and have looked it. I tried to be smart last week and give Toronto a shot, they sure let me down. DC did get a win last week, beating Colorado 2-1, with their home defense showing what they are capable of doing if they don't just fall apart. Their xGA is 17.4 (reasonable, though not good) and yet they've allowed 23 goals. Things went very pear-shaped for them against Orlando and San Jose. I wouldn't be overly excited about Toronto in this week just because of that GA by DC, Toronto is at a 1:2 ratio of goals:goals allowed, which I think is safe to say is not good.
4:30 PM has all your East Coast kickoffs (plus Cincinnati v Austin). The two New York teams have great matchups, facing Montreal (at NYCFC) and the Galaxy (at Red Bulls). Orlando now has four 0-0 draws in their last five games, hosting a revitalized New England will put that strategy to the test. Philadelphia vs Columbus is a matchup between first and second in the East. Great for entertainment, not necessarily for fantasy though. Cincinnati's defense may be tempting as well, they did not play midweek and Austin sent a reasonable lineup out there, plus Austin has just seven goals on the season.
5:30 PM features four central time zone games: Dallas vs Salt Lake, Houston vs Seattle, Nashville vs Charlotte and St. Louis vs San Diego. Dallas went from beating Miami to getting walloped by SD, and RSL literally have not tied a game this year. Not a matchup I am wading into. I think Seattle is a favorite over Houston, though it may depend on the availability and health of some key players. Nashville should be able to handle Charlotte though Charlotte has been able to beat good teams when their game plan comes together. San Diego figured things out last match, but can they do it on the road now? Or will St. Louis finally find their first win since beating the Sounders on March 15th?
6:30 PM is Colorado hosting San Jose. This is a juicy matchup, as wherever the Earthquakes go, goals follow. Attackers from this match will be popular for good reason.
7:30 PM is Portland vs Kansas City. SKC just had a legendary match, winning with 0.00 xG, literally not a single shot attempted, just a lucky OG. I think there's still a real quality gap here and Portland should have a similar performance to their 4-2 defeat of SKC just a month ago.
On Sunday the lone game is Vancouver vs LAFC at 4 PM. Big opportunity for LAFC to try and prove they are still an elite squad, but I think Vancouver will prevail. This game does have big fantasy potential though depending on what you are looking for.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Chicago - Let me be clear here my confidence in Chicago holding a clean sheet is very low. That being said, when starting goalkeeper Christopher Brady (21) earned a red card last weekend, it meant the debut of hometown kid keeper Jeff Gal (32) whose only prior top-flight experience was 2021-23 with Degerfors in the Swedish Allsvenskan. For fantasy, that means a 4.8m starting keeper in the earliest time slot of the week.
And on the other side of the pitch will be Atlanta, who have only scored in one of their three road games this year. Chicago has mostly had a bad defense, but they were the only team to shut out Miami so far this year (in the regular season at least).
For an individual defender, I think Jack Elliott (6.3m) is my pick. Gutman has a pair of goals but Elliot has a pair of assists, and while Gutman has been almost allergic to bonus points, Elliot has seven mostly from passing and key plays.
Cincinnati - Though Cincinnati's underlying numbers suggest caution (their 16.5 xGA is third-worst in the East), Austin has still managed to only score seven goals this year. I do have to issue another caution though, as Austin has underperformed their 14 xG by 7 goals and is almost assuredly due some regression to mean. And yet, just seven goals and a tough midweek USOC match while Cincinnati has a full week's rest. For an individual defender, it makes sense to go Luca Orellano (10.0m) again as usual. He had six points last week without a CS and has at least six points in four of the last five weeks (and 5/6 of at least 5 pts).
NYCFC - Similar cautions here as NYCFC's defense has been average, and though Montreal has only scored five goals, their xG is 11.6, another team who will surely regress to mean, right? The proof is in the pudding though, so you have to like NYCFC's chances. For an individual defender, I like Tayvon Gray (6.2m). Only recently returned from injury, the 22-year-old Jamaican had seven assists last year in a little over 1600 minutes. He showed some of that upside last week with 6 KPs. He did play 95 minutes midweek and could yield time to Mitja Illenic, so consider Haak or Martins if you want to avoid a playing-time headache.
RBNY - Basically the same reasons here. The Red Bulls and NYCFC have identical stats in goals allowed (13) and xGA (14.9). The Galaxy have just eight goals on the year, still haven't won a game, and look unlikely to do so anytime soon. They maybe should have scored on SKC but they have seemed subpar all over the field in 2025. For an individual, Omar Valencia (7.5m) is the call again. He's up to four assists on the year and so seems to have the highest ceiling.
Vancouver - For a late game option, you are either looking at Portland's shaky defense trying to keep out SKC's poor offense or Vancouver's top-tier defense against a strong LAFC offense. The Whitecaps have been doing special things this year, so I am giving them the nod. Tristan Blackmon (10.2m) would get the nod for me as he has a couple of goals on the year and has consistent bonus point production and is clear for playing time.
Midfielders
Cristian Espinoza (SJ 11.8m) - His 83 overall fantasy points is most in the league. He drives this deadly San Jose attack. He's had a few disappointing games, but his ceiling is as high as anyone's and his 27 bonus points typically make for a high floor. Playing at Colorado is not the easiest, but SJ's attack is best in the league for good reason.
Djordje Mihailovic (COL 11.7m) - Just behind Espinoza at 81 points overall, he also has 27 bonus points. And he gets to play San Jose at home. Very easy pick this week and will be a popular captain choice.
Hany Mukhtar (NSH 11.0m) - A solid seven points last week in Atlanta. This week it is Charlotte at home, a great matchup and opportunity for points. Charlotte is surrendering about 2 goals per game on the road and has the second-worst xGD/90 on the road in the league behind St. Louis.
Anders Dreyer (SD 11.4m) - Well, it seems San Diego's regression was greatly exaggerated. Last week they moved Dreyer to what was listed as a center-forward position, but his heat maps suggest he was still playing more or less like a right-winger. These are his most recent four matches from Sofascore:
Whatever the formation, it worked. Chucky Lozano, working from the left, had an early goal and a penalty, Dreyer had his own goal in the 56th minute, and San Diego tacked on two more in the 73rd and 87th minutes with Dreyer earning two assists on the night. This week it's at St. Louis, who started the season with four straight shutouts but have allowed 12 goals in seven matches since.
Federico Bernardeschi (TOR 9.1m) - This Toronto offense has been very poor, but Bernardeschi has, at times, been the sole bright spot. His 3-game average is 4 pts, and his season and 5-game average is about 5 pts, with his median score 4 pts. His floor is not great. But he had a goal at DC and now they play DC at home. He has had at least 7 points in five matches. DC has notably allowed the most goals in the league and tied for most goals on the road. Very reasonable option to sit on your bench from the early set of matches and see if you want to scrub out someone in the main set of games for him. He's also at a relatively budget-friendly 9.1m. Just don't be surprised if he's at 1-3 points.
Carles Gil (NE 11.1m) - Four straight games and five of the last six with double-digit points. And three of those games were road games. I don't know how sustainable this is, as he has just 1.7 npxG on the season, which on a per-90 basis is even with guys like Amine Bassi, Alex Muyl and Keaton Parks. His npxG+xA/90 is the same as Sebastian Berhalter, slightly better than Mohamed Farsi, and slightly worse than teammate Ignatius Ganago. And yet his fantasy production these past six weeks has been elite, five goals, one assist and 22 BPs in that span. And he gets the benefit of NE's PKs. Of course, this week he is on the road against an Orlando defense that has pitched five shutouts in a row. So, the bottom could fall out on Gil's production. But he has to be considered based on the strength of his recent performances alone.
Albert Rusnák (SEA 12.2m) - He may have a slight knock (again) so may not start, but he showed what he can do with a full match last week, 13 points with a goal and six BPs (largely from 16 KPs). He had 7 points without a goal contribution at home earlier this year against Houston.
Evander (CIN 11.7m) - The bottom has fallen out for Evander, just one point last week as he took two negative points for a yellow card (in the second minute of two minutes of second-half stoppage, lol) and too many fouls. He's still capable of elite production though and should have more of the ball to make an impact at home against Austin.
David Da Costa (POR 10.1m) - Playing SKC at home can be a treat, and Portland's strong offense should be able to capitalize. They did at SKC a month ago with a 4-2 win. Da Costa, Santiago Moreno and Antony have very similar underlying numbers, with Da Costa having an advantage in bonus points while Antony has far exceeded his npxG+xA of 4.1 with 4 goals and 5 assists. I'd expect Antony to come back down a bit, he had 6 goals and 4 assists last year on twice the minutes with similar underlying numbers. And Da Costa has the most consistent minutes while Antony and Moreno may be subbed somewhat early. Still, any of them could be the guy this week so I wouldn't fault you for playing to production with Antony or going for Moreno for a little budget discount.
Forwards
Leo Messi (MIA 13.1m) - 10 points last week was a nice return to form. Away to Minnesota will be tough, but he's still Messi.
Rafael Navarro (COL 10.1m) - Navarro has an excellent matchup against San Jose. He's had some clunkers this year (six games with 2-3 pts) but is the clear team leader in non-penalty goals with five (Yapi and Mihailovic have two).
Chucky Lozano (SD 10.3m) - If San Diego can keep the offense balanced with Lozano on the left and Dreyer on the right, the sky is the limit for this team. Lozano is on PKs and St. Louis has been handing out goals lately.
Felipe Mora (POR 9.2m) - For all the discussion about Portland mids above, Mora has the best underlying per-minute numbers and leads the team with five goals. He doesn't always start, bringing his average points down, and has only gone 90 once (last game at San Jose), but he's the best forward option here until Jonathan Rodriguez gets all the way healthy.
Hugo Cuypers (CHI 11.4m) - He plays Atlanta at home in the early time slot. Very easy to bench and see how he does, or perhaps just start with confidence. He cooled after his hot start but is still tied for the league lead in goals with seven, which is a little under his second-best xG of 7.8.
Cristian Arango (SJ 12.1m) - Very strong lately on SJ's excellent offense. Liable to go off any week, and one of the three tied for the league lead in goals. We know he can get it done at altitude from his time at RSL last year. I like other options better, but would not fault you for taking him.
Budget: Danny Musovski (SEA 6.4m) - Four goals in four games and still with a league-leading 1.09 npxG/90. His actual 5.1 npxG for the season is as good or better than Kelvin Yeboah, Brian White, and Tai Baribo, and he has done it in 423 minutes while they have all had 700+ minutes. Would not be surprised if this is the week he cools off, but that is some excellent production at just 6.4m.
Captain Considerations
Leo Messi - The conversation always starts and often ends here. Maybe not the best week and matchup for him, but he's certainly excelled under tougher conditions.
Djordje Mihailovic - The match against San Jose should feature plenty of goals and Mihailovic is always involved for Colorado.
Hany Mukhtar - Did you see those Charlotte stats above?
Chucky Lozano - At least six points in every start but one. He's only had three road games so far, but with how St. Louis has played lately this should be a game that SD controls and wins decisively.
Carles Gil - If you are more confident than I am that he keeps the magic rolling.
