It’s hard to remember the last time the MLS Playoffs felt as wide open as they do this year. After the Wild Card Round pared down the field to 18 teams, most pundits seem to agree that at least 12 of those sides have a pretty decent chance to make it to MLS Cup.
One simple explanation is that there hasn’t necessarily been one dominant team this year. The Philadelphia Union won the Supporters’ Shield with 66 points, but that’s the lowest 34-game total for a winner since 2016, when FC Dallas topped the regular season with 60 points. Not only was this arguably the most competitive Shield race in MLS history — the Union won by just one point and were only three points ahead of fifth – there was also a record six teams who claimed at least 60 points. The gap from first to 14th in the Shield standings was just 13 points. A year ago, the gap between those two spots was more than twice as big.
All of which is to say, this year’s playoffs could get a little weird.
Don’t worry, though, this is your guide to making sense of it all.
Any new wrinkles to the format?
Not this year! But it would be understandable if you had forgotten that last year MLS instituted a new playoff format in which the First Round is now best-of-3, but it then reverts to single-elimination for the conference semifinals and finals. In the best-of-3 round, each game effectively counts as one point and the first team to two advances. There are no ties in this round, with the result being determined in a shootout if the score is even at the end of regulation. Last year, for instance, the Sounders advanced after winning the first two games in a shootout. Yes, that means a team can advance with two shootout victories even if they were blown out in the other game.
Who should be considered favorites?
Oddly enough, few seem to be picking the Union despite their spot atop the regular-season standings. Matt Doyle, for instance, doesn’t have them among his five-team “Tier 1” contenders. I think that’s mostly because they didn’t exactly look impressive against some of the other top contenders, going 4-8-1 against the other top 11 teams in the Shield standings.
That said, there is no overwhelming favorite. Inter Miami is the betting favorite at +400, but that’s likely simply due to the belief that money will follow Messi. My personal pick is LAFC, who have looked like a juggernaut ever since Son Heung-Min joined forces with Denís Bouanga. But I could be talked into the Vancouver Whitecaps or FC Cincinnati, as well. Honestly, I won’t be surprised if any of nine teams make it to the final.
Isn’t that overly dismissive of Miami?
Maybe it is, and that might be because my most visceral memory of them is the tantrum their players threw after the Sounders pounded them into the Lumen Field turf in the Leagues Cup final. Since that rather embarrassing show, though, Miami has been on a scorched-earth tour.
In Miami’s last nine games – which includes a 3-0 win over Nashville SC in Game 1 on Friday – they've gone 7-1-1 and outscored their opponents 30-12. They scored at least three goals in all but one of those games and at least four in four of them.
Leading the way, as you might imagine, is Messi, who has 12 goals and nine assists to cap off what most agree is the greatest individual season in MLS history. He finished the regular season with 29 goals and 16 assists and will almost certainly become the first player in league history to win consecutive MVP awards (Trivia alert: Preki is the only other player to win the award twice and those honors came six years apart).
Who are some of the less obvious picks?
I am not ready to discount the chances that Nashville SC or the Columbus Crew could go on a run from the Nos. 6 and 7 spots, respectively. BJ Callaghan has had Nashville playing some of the best soccer of anyone this year and even led them to the U.S. Open Cup title. They have genuine game-winners in Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar (they combined for 51 goals and assists) who can carry them if needed. The Crew never seemed to get fully untracked this year, but this is essentially a very similar squad to the one that won MLS Cup two years ago and won Leagues Cup last year.
How do you rate the Sounders’ chances?
I’m pretty bullish on them. The Sounders finished the season as the fifth-best team in the Western Conference — which is their second-lowest finish in 17 MLS seasons — but also showed some of their upside when they won Leagues Cup by blitzing Inter Miami 3-0 in the final and going 5-0-1 overall with a 14-2 goal-difference.
Part of why I like the Sounders’ chances,, though, is their draw. Minnesota United isn’t a bad team or anything, but they look vulnerable (the series starts on Monday). After that, they’d likely face San Diego FC, an expansion team whose roster is very light on anything that can plausibly be called “playoff experience.” The final hurdle before MLS Cup would likely be the winner of Whitecaps-LAFC. I certainly wouldn’t call the Sounders favorites against either of those teams, but I wouldn’t discount their chances either.
What do the Sounders do well?
Over most of Brian Schmetzer’s tenure as head coach, the Sounders have been mostly a defensive team. This year, however, Schmetzer has loosened the reins a bit and the Sounders have responded by scoring 58 goals, the second most they’ve ever scored in a MLS season. Across all competitions, they’re averaging 1.77 goals per game and have 14 players who scored at least two goals.
What’s also a bit different is how they defend. While they weren’t able to keep this up all season, when the Sounders were at their best, they were aggressively pressing and counter-pressing. The degree to which that tapered off likely had to do with fatigue. The Sounders were able to get some of their key midfielders some rest late in the season, which hopefully serves them well.
I’m assuming there’s been a tradeoff?
The flip side is they’ve been a bit looser on defense. Their 48 goals allowed is more than in any season since 2019 (which ended with them lifting their last MLS Cup). A frustrating number of those goals came late in games — they allowed four result-changing goals after the 85th minute this year — and on set pieces, where only one team allowed more goals.
How good is Minnesota United?
For most of the year, the Loons looked like they might win the Western Conference. They spent 10 weeks in the No. 2 spot and were there as recently as Week 30, breathing down the necks of whoever was leading. But after losing in the U.S. Open Cup semis, they started to slip and they ended up going 1-2-1 over their final four games to finish in a disappointing fourth.
It wasn’t all emotional letdown, though. Minnesota chose to transfer their top scorer Tani Oluwaseyi just as the summer window closed. That decision was compounded when their other top scorer, Kelvin Yeboah, went down with an injury, which happened to coincide with starting centerback Carlos Harvey also going down. Add it all together and the losses were a bit too much to overcome.
How do they play?
Minnesota plays one of the most distinct styles in MLS. They’re the first team since records started being kept that had less than 40% possession for the season. That equated to them completing 800 fewer passes than any other team and 6,000 fewer passes than the Sounders. They balance that out by being lethal on set pieces, turning every throw-in or free kick in the attacking half into a potential scoring opportunity. Centerback Michael Boxall finished with five assists this year, all of them on throw-ins.
How do they match up?
The Sounders have historically dominated this rivalry — winning 14 of the first 17 meetings — but Minnesota won both of their meetings this year, albeit with some caveats. In the first game, Minnesota won 3-2 at Lumen Field. That game was notable in part because the Sounders players staged a protest over Club World Cup bonuses that they admitted was a bit of a distraction. In the second meeting, the Loons won 1-0 on a somewhat flukey Pereyra goal. The Sounders had 70% of possession in that game, more than doubled Minnesota’s xG output and were missing all three of their Designated Players.
Any injuries we should know about?
For the Sounders, the biggest one is Pedro de la Vega. He broke his kneecap in the regular-season finale and will miss the rest of the year. The good news, though, is Yeimar Gomez Andrade and Ryan Kent look like they’ll be back for this series.
For Minnesota, Kelvin Yeboah is still working his way back. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to start right away, but he should at least be available. Centerback Carlos Harvey has also been out and his return timeline is less clear.
Are you going to share your predictions?
I am! After briefly doing some real soul-searching, I've decided that it's a lot more fun if I just go with my heart and pick the Sounders to go all the way and even get to host the final. I don't know if I fully believe this will happen, but I think this at least plausible.
If you'd like to join in on the fun, Sounder at Heart has set up a bracket challenge you're invited to join.
