Take a peek anywhere around the league pundits right now, and you'll see much consternation about the extreme home-team effect in MLS these first two weeks. It is understandable, as road teams have a grand total of four wins so far, and Orlando City owns two of those losses. LAFC got their road win by scoring once after they were a man up, and then a second time when they had a two-player advantage. Montreal played about 40 minutes with a man advantage while down 0-1... and ended up losing 0-3! But that may just be a Montreal thing.
The fact is that MLS teams have had about the best home stretch of games – or worst road stretch, depending on how you look at it – as almost any other stretch in league history. Will that continue? Probably not, there are a lot of reasons why teams have an easier time playing on the road now than in the past (I remember when teams were limited to a maximum number of charter flights and only got a couple of extra for participating in CCL). Those reasons have not disappeared during the offseason. But it's impossible to say for sure. When in doubt, of course, captain Messi!
Also, there's a bit below about NWSL Fantasy kicking off next week.
Week 3 Quick Rankings
Goalkeepers
Celentano (CIN), Horvath (NYRB), Daniel (SJ), Lloris (LAFC)
Defenders
Robinson (CIN), Che (NYRB), Ricketts (SJ), Porteous (LAFC), Arfsten (CLB) (KB-only)
Midfielders
Mukhtar, Tverskov, Berhalter, Mehmeti/Forsberg, Rusnak, Hartel, Wolf/Nico Fernandez (Mid/Fwd), Delgado
Forwards
Messi, Dreyer, Bouanga/Son, Rossi, Torres (ATX) (KB), Ramirez (CIN), Hall (NYRB), Cuypers, Judd (SJ)
Week 3 Schedule
Bye: New England and Houston - Their match was postponed due to poor weather delaying installation of new grass in New England
It's too early to say right now how teams will handle it, but CCC heats up after this weekend. We likely see some lineup adjustments to protect certain players from too many minutes and get some rotations established. Be a little cautious with players from the teams affected:
CCC:
3/10 - Philadelphia vs America; LAFC vs Alajuelense
3/11 - Nashville vs Miami; LA Galaxy vs Mt. Pleasant; San Diego vs Toluca
3/12 - Cincinnati vs Tigres; Vancouver vs Seattle
The Good
New York City hosts Orlando to kick off the week at 11:30 am Pacific on Saturday. Orlando have dropped six points at home and allowed six goals to boot. Yes, two of them were a direct result of Messi's brilliance and NYRB seem like a very good young team, but the only team who has allowed more goals is Montreal. And they have played two road games. NYCFC was 1-0-1 on their early road trip, picking up four points. I won't be surprised if this is another lopsided loss for Orlando.
New York Red Bulls host Montreal this week. Load up on your cheap kids! They're a dime a dozen on NYRB!
Cincinnati gets Toronto this week. They did not look so hot last week without Evander, but Toronto have given up six goals just like Orlando – three at Dallas and three at Vancouver. They have reinforcements on the way but (a) I don't know if their defense is getting any help, and (b) they aren't ready to contribute yet. I'm not sure who the right play is on Cincinnati, but I'm interested in buying in.
The Interesting
Nashville played a blockbuster week 1 match and then turned in a dour performance in Dallas with Surridge out for illness. Minnesota had a nice 2-2 draw where they nabbed a late point in Austin and then held firm against Cincinnati for a 1-0 home win. Both these teams are likely to make the playoffs and it will be interesting to see how this game goes. I think Nashville fields a full lineup in this match and then at home against Miami, with rotation the following weekend at Columbus.
San Jose are one of the four teams (all from the Western Conference) that has allowed zero goals so far. This week they face their first big test at Philadelphia. Last year's Supporter's Shield winners have just one goal themselves this year... in league play at least, as Philadelphia stomped the life out of Defence Force FC in CCC play, 12-0 on aggregate. They will be looking ahead to their match against America on Tuesday though, so San Jose might still be a good team to utilize. The season is very young and it is a tiny sample size, but, per American Soccer Analysis, San Jose has the best xGD in the league. Food for thought.
Charlotte are home against Austin this week. Charlotte stole a point from St. Louis based entirely on Kahlina's heroics and looked completely non-competitive against the Galaxy. They did play two road games, but have the second-worst xGD in the league, actually overperforming their xGD even though they are at -3 through two games. Austin, meanwhile, looked a strong squad in comfortably dispatching DC and had a disappointing if somewhat fair draw to Minnesota. Will their fortunes turn now that Charlotte is back home and now Austin hits the road? We'll see!
The Important
San Diego travels to Kansas City this week. I am very interested in how they handle the trip, as road dominance was their calling card last year, earning more road points than anyone else in the league. It was, oddly enough, their home form that kept them from the Supporters' Shield. Their 26 home points was only three better than the Galaxy's 23. The Galaxy had just seven road points, and San Diego had thirty-seven. San Diego has two things working against them this round: a series of big storms rolling through today that could lead to lightning, massive hail, or tornadoes AND they have to look ahead to their first CCC action midweek against Toluca. The storms are supposed to clear out by Saturday and San Diego should be able to handle a weak Kansas City side but, you know, road games and all that. Could be interesting (I'd still be comfortable captaining Dreyer).
Columbus plays Chicago. These two were separated by only one point last year, and it seems likely they are both playoff squads again this year. Columbus had just one point from their two Western Conference road games to start the year, but may have deserved a point from Portland and likely deserved all three against Kansas City. Still, they have shipped five goals and scored four, so it seems likely this game will be entertaining at the least.
Vancouver gets a double dose of Cascadia action this upcoming week, playing at Portland and then home against Seattle. They are intimately familiar with CCC play so should be able to manage their minutes appropriately, but both games count towards important trophies. They will certainly not be interested in dropping points at Portland. I think they'll have a good time (Portland didn't just buy a Pumas defender this week because the first few games have gone swimmingly), but Cascadia matches are always unpredictable.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Cincinnati - I am expecting Toronto's attack to remain one of the weaker ones in the league until Sargent gets integrated. I think they'll be much better by midseason, but that is many weeks away. Cincinnati plays New England and Montreal the next two rounds as well, so this is a good time to invest if you are on Sofascore. Go with Robinson, with Hagglund (or Echenique on KB) as second choice. I prefer Robinson as he has better scores after ignoring Hagglund's goal (in his career Hagglund has scored about once every 1,800 minutes).
NYRB - I don't see why one of the surprise strongest teams in the league in the first two games shouldn't beat up on what is clearly the worst through two and possibly an historically bad team. Che is clearly the guy to own as he's cheap and playing at a very high caliber. If you want a second, you can go Nealis on Sofascore or Marshall-Rutty on Kickbase.
San Jose - This is a bit of a called shot but I have a feeling San Jose will do well defensively here, considering how strong they have been (against bad teams at home, but still) and the uncertainties facing Philadelphia. They have zero points and will need to do well against America on shorter rest. Plus, Ricketts has been stellar as a winger thus far. If you want a second option, I think I prefer Roberts.
LAFC - Dallas could prove a tough test but LAFC have conceded zero goals thus far, including stonewalling Miami and Messi. Musa and company is not that good. I'd personally go with Tafari or Porteous. Though Segura has stood out so far, he has been playing the LB in a 4-3-3 and, historically, when Hollingshead rotates in during fixture congestion like this week that is the spot he takes. They could drop out Tafari and move Segura inside or to their 5-in-the-back formation with Segura at LCB like last year, Tafari at middle CB and Hollingshead wide of Segura, but I just don't know. These little things can make a difference when we have no bench and/or transfers are locked hours earlier than lineups are posted.
Max Arfsten (KB) - His team has conceded five goals in two games and he has zero goal contributions. And yet, he is the #17 ranked defender on Kickbase! He's just a mid mid on Sofascore, but looks like a solid choice week-to-week on Kickbase, especially if Columbus find some clean sheets and Arfsten gets some actual goal contributions.
Midfielders
Mukhtar - He did okay last week with Surridge out, even though Nashville couldn't score. Back home this week and hopefully with a healthy squad, I think he'll do well enough.
Tverskov - He's a machine. I'd feel very comfortable playing him at SKC despite the weather and despite the upcoming CCC game.
Berhalter - Same here. Muller stole the show last week but could very well be rested somewhat against Portland. I'm not worried about rotation for Berhalter at this point, especially not in a Cascadia Cup game.
Mehmeti/Forsberg - This NYRB trio is a fantastic combination. Mehmeti seems to be the big winner of the scoring format so far, especially with his goal contributions. I do think Forsberg will pull ahead within a few weeks, but both these guys have been great.
Rusnak - I expect Seattle to be somewhat more successful at St. Louis than they were at RSL. I also think Seattle may do some rotation, but Rusnak will be in there for most of the game. Schmetzer likes rotating guys who can fill the same or similar roles, but there's no comparable replacement for Rusnak (or Cristian, for that matter). He'll be out there.
Hartel - He sat out last week for the impending birth of his child, and St. Louis suffered for it. As far as I know, he should be back this week. Seattle showed at RSL they are no defensive titan and Hartel has had success against them in the past. He could have a nice week, especially off set pieces.
Wolf/Nico Fernandez (Mid/Fwd) - Nico is the better choice for me, but he's a forward on Kickbase so if you want an NYCFC mid then you'll want Wolf. I think we'll likely see two combined goal contributions out of these two guys.
Delgado - He hit a screamer against Houston for their first goal and otherwise had a massive game dominating the field playing up a man. Highly likely LAFC have a strong share of the ball against Dallas and he could have a nice run out. It looks like Eustaquio has slightly better scores on Kickbase but Delgado clearly comes out ahead on Sofascore.
Forwards
Messi - I know he was a disappointment Week 1, so I hope you kept the faith and gave him the captaincy week 2. It is possible DC is a tougher test, but they have not yet faced an offense like Miami's with their new squad.
Dreyer - What a guy. He's on track to give Messi another race for the MVP. I have no qualms about using him at SKC, even with the weather and CCC coming up. You could double-down with Ingvartsen (or take him as a big discount choice) but I have not seen enough from Ingvartsen to fully trust him yet.
Bouanga/Son - On Kickbase, Son scored 199 in Week 1 and 200 in Week 2 with assists in each. Bouanga had 327 in Week 1 and 179 in Week 2, scoring a goal and assist in Week 1. It seems Kickbase likes Bouanga a fair amount better. Very different story on Sofascore, where both players have a 7-pt average, with Son scoring 9 and 5 and Bouanga scoring 14 and 0 (!). These things are weird sometimes. Good luck figuring out who is the better one this week.
Rossi - He's got 200+ points in each game on Kickbase with goals in each. He's not as hot on Sofascore, but I see no reason to turn my nose up at him.
Torres (KB) - A couple of strong starts for Austin so far, this week he is facing what could end up as one of the worst defenses in the league with Charlotte. Somewhat a short in the dark but worth looking into. He's a mid on Sofascore and not as worthwhile there.
Ramirez - He's playing left wingback for Cincinnati and is the clear early winner of these fantasy formats on the team. Denkey could end up being the better choice, especially when Evander is back to feed him, but Ramirez's continual involvement up and down the pitch is working well for him so far.
Hall - I tried to be clever and go with Cowell last week but Hall went out and outperformed him again anyway. He's a star in the making and gets to eat against Montreal this week.
Cuypers - Columbus's defense is beatable and Cuypers she knows how to beat defenses. He's still too goal dependent for my tastes, but it is hard to argue when he scores buckets of goals.
Judd - He's playing great so far and will likely benefit from playing alongside Werner. A dark horse option for this week.
Captain Considerations
Messi - Duh. As long as he's playing you have to find good reasons not to captain him.
Dreyer - As long as he's playing, he's a top-tier captain choice.
Hall/Forsberg - While Forsberg didn't quite hit like I'd hoped against New England, I am afraid for what NYRB's team will do to Montreal. ASA has NYRB as third in the league for xG so far and it appears Opta may have them first. Like with San Diego's 5-0 win over Montreal, this could get ugly.
Nico Fernandez - Orlando's defense could be a similar mess as the year goes on. NYCFC might have a great time in this one. Nico is the most likely pick to benefit.
Finest Fifteen
Trying something new this year by showcasing my ideal fifteen players, assuming they all score and generally ignoring the match timings except as to the GKs.
Messi - Dreyer - Hall - Bouanga;
Berhalter - Forsberg - Tverskov - Nico Fernandez - Mehmeti;
Ricketts - Che - Robinson - Arfsten;
Lloris - Celentano.
2026 NWSL Fantasy
We have confirmation that the three main NWSL Fantasy platforms available last year will be running again. As I noted last week, the appropriately named "Fantasy NWSL" game is running and has fully launched: https://www.fantasynwsl.com/. My main disappointment with this game is that you are limited to two free transfers weekly with no roll over, making it very difficult to keep up with rotation, byes, and international absences. Plus, the game is very limited with bonus points, so scoring is almost entirely dependent on goals/assists and clean sheets.
The oldest-running NWSL Fantasy platform I know about will also be back for another year over at ShePlays: https://sheplays.com.au/nwsl. The game has not launched yet so check back sometime next week. What changes they have made to the scoring or the platform remains to be seen. I have liked their scoring metrics but the UI has been a pain point in the past.
And Hera Games is running draft leagues for anyone interested. Still in beta, this site was around last year but I did not have the chance to join a league. I would like to, as it seems like a fun platform and has thorough scoring metrics including a variety of bonus points available. https://heragames.net/
ShePlays and Hera Games are browser-only as I understand it, while Fantasy NWSL can be played in browser or on their app. Now, if we can only figure out a platform that can run both MLS and NWSL at the same time with a unified set of scoring rules, that would really make my life easier! A guy can dream.
