If you’ve been reading this column for any amount of time, you surely know that I like to use stats to help tell stories. I also believe they have a utility to help us better understand the game and can challenge what our eyes may otherwise have us believe.
I’ve often used statistics to explain how the Seattle Sounders have played better than the scoreline suggested or used them to illustrate just how bad a performance may have been.
There are also times when statistics fail to tell us the complete story. The game, as they say, is not played on a spreadsheet.
The Sounders’ 1-0 win over the San Jose Earthquakes on Sunday was one of those times, and might just be the grittiest win they’ve ever claimed.
Based solely on the numbers, the Sounders were badly outplayed. Depending on what statistical model is being used, the Earthquakes generated 4-6x more xG than the Sounders, out-shot them 25-6 and had a 17-0 corners advantage. The Sounders had just 37% possession and lost field-tilt — which is weighted toward final-third entries — 84-16. The Sounders’ -1.71 Expected Goal-Difference and .41 Expected Points were their worst in a win since 2017, according to American Soccer Analysis.
While it’s true that the Sounders were definitely “under it” for at least most of the second half, looking only at the data misses some quality play.
“That was a great win,” Sounders goal-scorer Paul Rothrock said. “Our defense had a monster game tonight.”
That might actually be an understatement, especially considering how deep the Sounders needed to go into their bench for this game.
Using a lineup that featured eight changes from their midweek win over the Vancouver Whitecaps in Concacaf Champions Cup play and just four starters from their season opener, the Sounders started reasonably strong. Cody Baker got the game’s first decent look, only for his shot from the top of the box to flash wide.
Rothrock was able to put the Sounders ahead in the 20th minute when Jesús Ferreira played him in with a perfect through ball, allowing him to race ahead of the defense and beat Earthquakes goalkeeper Daniel with a shot inside the near post.
Rothrock probably could have had another goal about five minutes later when Nikola Petković played him in for another chance, but he seemed to misread the ball’s bounce and the opportunity fizzled out.
That sequence seemed to shock the Earthquakes awake. Although the Sounders ended up with a couple more decent looks — and even appeared to have an insurance goal before VAR disallowed Cody Baker’s 86th minute strike — the Earthquakes outshot the Sounders 22-3 and generated all but .10 of their 2.35 xG over the final 65 minutes.
Andrew Thomas was forced to make seven saves, five of which came from shots inside the penalty area. That doesn’t even account for arguably the biggest defensive play of the match.
Off a turnover by Albert Rusnák, the Earthquakes sprung Preston Judd on a ball over the top that left Jackson Ragen and Tino Lopez chasing him. Ragen caught up enough to give Judd a light tug just before he shot. Although Thomas got a hand to it, the ball still seemed bound for the back of the net until Lopez made an acrobatic left-footed clearance while running at full speed toward the goal.
“I saw the ball going in and I knew I had to do everything I possibly can to help the team and prove I can play with them,” Lopez said.
For more reasons than just that play, Lopez proved that with his overall performance. Now in his third season with the organization since signing with Tacoma Defiance, Lopez was making his first MLS start while on a short-term loan. Along with midfielder Peter Kingston, Lopez was one of two players on short-term loans to start this game.
Sounders head coach Brian Schmetzer said Lopez was now being offered a first-team contract and that he’d be pushing for Kingston to get the same.
“I don’t think people realize how hard it is to stay patient in the second-team system,” said Rothrock, who took a similar path to the first team. “It beats you down and this guy has been doing it for three years. I can’t say enough good things about him. I’m so proud.”
Lopez and Kingston are just the latest in what is now a rich pipeline from Defiance to Sounders. They were among eight Sounders starters in this game who effectively came through the Defiance. If Lopez and Kingston both end up joining the first-team permanently, the roster will have 13 of 28 players who first signed with Defiance.
No, this wasn’t necessarily the prettiest Sounders performance ever. But they’ve now won three straight across all competitions — all of them on the road and within the span of eight days — despite injuries up and down the roster. That tells a story that statistics can never fully tell.
“The team’s in a good way,” Schmetzer said. “They’re gassed, they’re tired, but that’s a happy crew.”
