MLS clubs I was the most wrong about (so far)

When you're an MLS pundit, you have to get used to being wrong. This league is notoriously among the hardest in the world to prognosticate, so you can't have an ego about it when your preseason predictions inevitably blow up in your face.

Still, it always gives you an opportunity to learn, and maybe be less wrong in the future. With that in mind, here are a few of the clubs that I missed the mark on the most with my preseason predictions compared to how their 2026 seasons have actually started – and what we can learn from my misfires.

San Jose Earthquakes

Record: 7W-1L-0D; 2nd in the Western Conference

My take going into the season

The Quakes finished 10th in the West last year, then went out and had what I confidently declared the worst offseason in the entire league. They lost their best player, Cristian Espinoza, after forgetting to pick up his contract option, then also unexpectedly parted ways with Chicho Arango. Losing their two best attackers would've been tough enough, but I also wasn't buying their contingency plan of bringing in Timo Werner, who brought a lot of pedigree and name-value, but also an equal amount of question marks. The German had missed a ton of time with injury over the last couple years, and if Werner didn't hit or got injured, it felt like San Jose were essentially the same 10th-place team as last year, but with way less firepower. Considering this team's defense also gave up 66 goals last year, it felt like a recipe for potential disaster.

What I was wrong about

Pretty much everything. San Jose have not only improved from last year, but they have a legitimate case as the best team in the entire league so far. Werner has already missed time with injury, but has looked fantastic when he has played, including a masterful effort in their 4-1 demolition of LAFC over the weekend. But this Quakes team has looked like a wagon, even when they've played without Werner. Homegrown No. 10 Niko Tsakiris and winger Ousseni Bouda look like breakout stars, and the defense has been much improved, conceding just three goals through eight games.

What we can learn

Never underestimate Bruce Arena. This man is truly an MLS guru, and I probably could have guessed that his presence alone would at least give this team a safe floor, even if this type of ceiling would have been hard to predict. It also speaks to what can happen with a pronounced commitment to youth development. Tsakiris and Bouda aren't big, flashy U22 signings from outside the league. They're players that San Jose brought up through their academy and got from the MLS SuperDraft. They're getting contributions from a bunch of other players in that mold, too, like Reid Roberts and Beau Leroux. Stuff like that is how you lose players like Espinoza and Arango and don't let it sink your season. I was also probably too quick to dismiss the Werner thing as desperate name-chasing. It turns out he's a perfect stylistic fit for them, and he looks fully bought in and motivated.

Real Salt Lake

Record: 5W-1L-1D; 5th in the Western Conference

My take going into the season

I saw little reason to believe that RSL would be anything different than what they have been for most of the last decade: A fine, credible and competent operation, but probably one with a limited ceiling and little chance of being an actual contender. They had one of the best young players in the league in Diego Luna, but it felt like the attack was just him and not much else. They brought in Morgan Guilavogui as an exciting new Designated Player to address that, but could one guy really change their fortunes all that much? It seemed far-fetched.

What I was wrong about

I did not realize this crop of young homegrowns was this good. Zavier Gozo was a highly-touted prospect, but he looks like a budding superstar that'll be off to Europe on a huge-money transfer soon enough. But it's not just him. Aiden Hezarkhani looks like he's on the verge of a breakout. So does 23-year-old forward Sergi Solans, who isn't a homegrown, but was a relatively nondescript SuperDraft pick that played for UCLA and Oregon State. Infusing all that young talent on a roster that already had Luna and added Guilavogui looks to have created one of the league's most exciting, high-powered offenses. I was also apparently wrong about Pablo Mastroeni. He has a reputation as a defensive, conservative coach who doesn't pay much mind to the aesthetics. You can't say that about him anymore. He's clearly been in the lab, turning this team into one of the best watches in the league.

What we can learn

Sometimes, one guy actually can move the needle quite a lot, and Guilavogui is one of those guys. Similar to San Jose, though, a lot of RSL's ascendance has been fueled by young guys who they developed, then gave a chance. In the case of Gozo, they might've just hit the lottery with a generational type of player, which is hard to predict or replicate. But their success also shows that not every prospect needs to be on Gozo's level to make a big difference – developing and hitting on guys like Hezarkhani and Solans can be equally consequential.

Philadelphia Union

Record: 1W-6L-0D; 13th in the Eastern Conference

My take going into the season

The Union lost a bunch of their best players over the offseason and didn't replace them, but I gave them the benefit of the doubt anyway. This team always seems to be in the mix at the top of the East, no matter what their roster looks like. Their academy churns out MLS players as much as anybody and they've shown a phenomenal aptitude for hitting on Moneyball-type signings. With such a long and proven track record, I thought they'd probably take a step back, but wasn't about to pick Philly as a major regression candidate. I thought they were an easy pick as at least a playoff team in the East.

What I was wrong about

It turns out losing guys of the caliber of Jakob Glesnes, Kai Wagner, Tai Baribo and Mikael Uhre can be quite detrimental, even for a front-office with this savvy a reputation. Philly have been an absolute mess this year, with just one win in their first seven games. They look closer to taking the Wooden Spoon than they do to defending their Supporters' Shield. Things can change quickly in MLS, but with this deep a hole already and a bare-bones roster, it's pretty hard to see Philly's path out of this.

What we can learn

Past reputation can only take you so far. Sure, Philly had weathered a lot of roster turnover to great effect in previous years. But in hindsight, this was clearly a different situation, with those aforementioned departures all being true building-block type players, all leaving at the same time. Throw in a scandal-plagued front office, and this was probably the easiest regression candidate to pick that I missed out of misguided devotion to the track record.

Houston Dynamo FC

Record: 3W-4L-0D; 10th in the Western Conference

My take going into the season

Houston was my big-brained pick to take an unexpected leap to Western Conference contender status in 2026. They made a couple of major additions over the offseason that I really liked, starting with DP winger Guilherme. It was more of a vibes pick based on his Transfermarkt page and YouTube highlights, but he felt like a really good bet to light it up in MLS. Then, they brought in Mateusz Bogusz, who we knew could produce in MLS during his time with LAFC. Ben Olsen has actually had this team playing high-level, aesthetically pleasing attacking soccer at times during his tenure, so with those two pieces added in, I liked their chances of at least putting out a dynamic, high-flying attack, which can take you pretty far in MLS.

What I was wrong about

It hasn't quite panned out like that. It looks like I was right about Guilherme – he's been fantastic with 5g/4a already in seven games, and this team definitely has shown to be capable of playing high-level offense. Where I missed, though, was on my evaluation of where they were at defensively. I thought the addition of Lucas Halter would offer a boost there, but he's only played in three games, and they've conceded 16 goals. I still think better days are ahead for this group, especially as Halter gets fully integrated, but they've looked pretty far from a breakout candidate.

What we can learn

Buying big-money attackers is fun and exciting, but you still need to be able to prevent other teams from scoring to consistently get results. To me, it's further confirmation that shoring up your spine and back line should always be the first order of business before you start splashing on the attack. If the foundation around Guilherme, Bogusz and Jack McGlynn was more solid, they'd probably be in a much better position. Also, acclimating new players often takes time, no matter how talented they are. In Guilherme's case, he hit the ground running, but Bogusz only has 1g/1a, which has resulted in the attack becoming overly-reliant on one guy.

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