Something to always consider when setting lineups is risk vs. reward. Players with high averages are great, but are their averages high because they have consistently good scores, or do they have a couple of massive weeks that are weighed against some mediocre performances? Both types of player are valuable, since the high-floor players give you consistent and reliable points throughout the year, while the high-variance players are how you achieve the high scores. Another big factor for risk is how many minutes your player is expected to play, as some guys always go 90 while others might be pulled at 45 or 60 minutes in some situations.
The trick is maintaining the balance. The ideal lineup is to hit all the high variance players when they have their biggest weeks and avoid them when they are down. That, of course, is impossible. So we have to pick and choose, finding some high floor players who can have big weeks occasionally, and finding some high variance plays who seem like a good idea for the week.
I am thinking about it this week because I see plenty of competing interests. Trying to avoid rotation from the Open Cup and CCC squads is tricky, as you get a zero if a player doesn't play at all, while if they do play they might be some of the best picks. Meanwhile, there are some riskier picks that are going against weak teams and defenses that could have massive scores, but have often this year turned in weak outputs.
How much risk you take on is up to you.
Week 10 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Daniel, Thomas, Schulte, Takaoka
Defenders
Munie, Ragen/Kossa-Rienzi, Arfsten (KB)/Amundsen (Sofa), Laborda, Herrington, Markanich
Midfielders
Berhalter, De Paul, Tsakiris/Leroux, Roldan/Rothrock, Gil, Evander, Luna/Gozo, Miranchuk, Nico Fernandez (M/F), Guilherme (M/F)
Forwards
Messi, Berte/Suarez, Cuypers/Zinckernagel, Owusu, Morris/Ferreira, Dreyer, Navarro
Week 10 schedule
Take note of the midweek games behind us and the CCC squads playing in the week ahead. Nashville will almost certainly rotate, and LAFC should, but Marc dos Santos is whining about the schedule and might just run his players into a wall to prove a point. Toronto and Montreal also have Canadian Championship games midweek, but they shouldn't need to rotate much ahead of playing Ottawa and Calgary Blizzard.
The Good
Seattle is the fortunate team playing at SKC this week. Get your Ferreira and Morris shares while you can, or your sneaky Rothrock play.
Miami hosts Orlando this weekend, where we'll see if Orlando can get back to respectability (doubtful).
San Jose starts the week by visiting Toronto (seriously, why are Toronto games all so early?). These midday Saturday games have been extremely weird and wild, so although I expect San Jose will get 2+ goals and a win here, very strange things have happened lately.
The Interesting
Portland has to go to altitude to play RSL this weekend. RSL has generally been one of the stronger sides this year, but they did falter at home to Miami and on the road against the Galaxy. Portland finally got their third win, coming against a San Diego team that has basically hit rock bottom, with a late stoppage time winner. I expect an RSL win here, but Portland is scrappy and RSL has been fallible lately.
Atlanta hosts Montreal at the Benz, two bottom-half teams that likely will stay there. But, someone has to come away from this with points. Will Owusu stay red hot? Will Miranchuk provide mediocre returns on investment? Could be a fun one from a fantasy perspective.
NYCFC has to face DC this weekend. Though NYCFC started hot, getting 10 points from their first four games, their only wins after that have been in the Open Cup. Since then they've earned just two points from two of their six games (four at home). Meanwhile, DC has clawed their way to 12 points and are even with NYCFC. While I think that NYCFC is a better team, they have not been playing like it.
The Major
4th vs 5th in the East happens this weekend with New England hosting Charlotte. The Revs are putting the pieces together, while Charlotte have cooled off a bit lately, especially with Tim Ream injured. It's still early, but this is a match that could determine some playoff seeding down the line.
Chicago gets Cincinnati on Saturday, with Chicago currently 3rd in the East and Cincy trying to fight their way up from 9th (tied on 12 points with four other teams). Chicago has had a quality year, but Cincinnati has enough talent to shoot back up the standings if their guys can figure out how to play with chemistry (and get healthy).
Columbus faces off against Minnesota, two mid-table playoff squads. Minnesota fell off a hot streak by losing at home to LAFC, while the Crew have 10 points in their last 5 games (plus a pair of USOC wins over lower division opponents). I think this is a relatively even matchup, with the Crew getting a slight nod as the home squad.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Can I say no one? There aren't many defenses that appeal to me this week, especially with the uncertainty rotation brings. Ah well, we have to pick someone.
San Jose - Toronto has overachieved on goals and San Jose has one of the best defenses in the league. Beware the MLS After Dark At Midday effect these games have had though. Munie is probably the guy.
Seattle - Another early road team, but Seattle has conceded the fewest goals in the league and play the statistically worst team in league. Granted, it is on the road and Seattle has played a game or two fewer than everyone else, but still. The best pick is probably Ragen, though if you want to take a risk on attacking returns, Kossa-Reinzi can get on the score sheet (I’m not 100% sure he's starting, but it seems likely given Schmetzer's usage lately).
Columbus - Minnesota has not been one of the more prolific offenses this year, and Columbus have been decent on defense. Go with Arfsten on Kickbase, and maybe Amundsen on Sofascore (Camacho and Zawadski work well, too).
Vancouver - Playing at the Galaxy will be tough, but Vancouver's defense has been so good this year on balance that I think they are still a strong pick. To me Laborda seems to be the right guy, but Ocampo and Blackmon are great, and Veselinovic is back soon to shake it all up.
Herrington - I was initially worried he'd be a flash in the pan after his massive Week 2 with a goal, but Herrington has proven to have a great floor, especially when Colorado is doing well. Playing at Houston is somewhere Colorado can get a result.
Markanich - Two goals in the past five weeks, and very strong floor scores when he doesn't score, even without a shutout. I think Minnesota probably concede, but he'll likely be a fantasy asset anyway. Duggan also scores decently but is lower priority I think.
Midfielders
Berhalter - He’s a weekly feature for good reasons. Müller has a higher ceiling but is a little too inconsistent for me.
De Paul - He's on a heater lately, and gets to play Orlando this week.
Tsakiris/Leroux - Leroux had a banger in the Open Cup and was rested last weekend. He might be a slightly stronger pick this week, but both of them can get it done.
Roldan/Rothrock - Roldan should be back from concussion protocol just in time to play SKC, and Rothrock is a weekly danger to cause chaos.
Gil - Highly active in playmaking this year, it is translating to fantasy points, and Charlotte has been vulnerable recently.
Evander - Even though I think Chicago will win this, Evander is too active to not put on here. He’s only getting better lately, especially as he figures out how to complement Denkey.
Luna/Gozo - They have had a couple of weaker weeks, but back at home against Portland should be a much friendlier matchup. I said that about San Diego but they seem to be a bit of a special (bad) team this year.
Miranchuk - Seemingly the only Atlanta attacker pulling his weight recently, he's scoring well enough for fantasy and the opponent is Montreal.
Nico Fernandez (M/F) - He was rendered inert by Montreal, but he's still possibly the "MVP" of the season if NYCFC can turn around their funk.
Guilherme (M/F) - I'm giving him one more week of leeway, to see what he can do against Colorado. I wouldn't give him a coveted Forward spot on Kickbase, but as a mid amongst many, he can fit in.
Forwards
Messi - Do I even need to explain?
Berte/Suarez - They started together last game alongside Messi and Berte had a nice finish off a rebound that Suarez forced (I think). Suarez has old man speed but still has an elite striker's foot and a gift for finding the net. Any of these guys in pink could feast against Orlando.
Cuypers/Zinckernagel - Zinc is finally heating up, right at a time to potentially gut Cincinnati's weakened defense. Though Cincy did get a clean sheet last week, I am not as impressed about someone beating the Red Bulls.
Owusu - He bossed the two New York squads, perhaps playing at Atlanta will be similarly successful?
Morris/Ferreira - They're in form and play SKC this week. Rusnak could eat into Ferreira's minutes somewhat, but they should both get plenty of time to run at SKC.
Dreyer - As bad as San Diego have been, Dreyer has found his moments to try and buoy the team. If LAFC rotate as much as they should, San Diego could definitely earn a win against LAFC's B-squad.
Navarro - Could very easily be challenging for the Golden Boot at the end of the year, he can do it all on offense.
Captain Considerations
Messi - Seems like a no-brainer week to pick him.
Morris - Had a four-goal day at SKC a couple of years ago. Repeat?
Zinckernagel - If you believe that Cincy's shut out last week was a fluke, Zinck could have a massive game.
Berhalter - He's a good pick if you want a rock, someone who isn't going to be rotated and has a high floor to go with a high ceiling.
Finest Fifteen
Morris - Messi - Zinckernagel - Berterame
Berhalter - De Paul - Gil - Luna - Leroux
Arfsten - Ragen - Herrington - Markanich
Thomas - Takaoka
