Hello everyone, I hope you are ready for another MLS soccer weekend. We're sandwiched between a DGW and midweek US Open Cup matches and certain MLS players going straight to World Cup boot camp. For plenty of teams, this will be a totally normal matchday, while it could get weird for others. I think the likelihood is low that it has a big effect on the weekend, certainly less so than the rotation and some surprise injuries we experienced last weekend.
There are some big games this weekend, both for fantasy purposes and on-field matchups that will set the tone for some going into the break. San Jose started the year with 11 all-comps wins and just one loss, but have not won in their past five and have lost three straight (including at Colorado in the Open Cup this week). It just so happens that the streak coincides with Niko Tsakiris getting injured (and Timo Werner out for most of the minutes as well). San Jose and plenty of other teams will relish the opportunity to get healthy and make some improvements to their squad when play resumes.
But we still have a game to go until then.
For Sofascore players: a reminder that you get two team Rebuild Squad tokens to use for the season to grant a week with entirely free transfers – one in the first half and one in the second half. I believe that means one of the tokens expires after Gameweek 17 (34 total rounds?), and we are currently on Gameweek 15 on Sofa. So, keep that in mind going into the DGW in Gameweek 16 coming out of the World Cup. You will likely want to use your first Rebuild token, if you haven't already, going into or coming out of that round. You also have the Quick Fix token, which lets you create a temporary team for one specific week (free transfers, but all changes revert after the round), but hopefully you can hang onto that for some of the weirder weeks late in the season.
Week 13 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Brady, Schwake, St. Clair, Lundt(*), Johnson, Lloris
Defenders
Elliott, Palacios, Micael, Polvara (KB)/Baumgartl (Sofa), Rowles (KB)/Peltola (Sofa), Tafari, Arfsten (KB)
Midfielders
Gil, Evander, Berhalter, De Paul, Nico Fernandez (M/F), Luna/Gozo, Mukhtar/Espinoza (M/F), Bassett, McGlynn, Valakari, Biel
Forwards
Messi, Pec, Denkey, Bouanga, Cuypers/Zinckernagel, Farrington, M. Ojeda (M/F), Judd, Hall
Week 13 schedule
I'm getting to this a little late, so in the interest of brevity I'll keep this section short. I think we're all immersed in the game enough at this point that you don't need me to point out that SKC is bad (I am not convinced by their two wins in a row) and the Whitecaps are good. As far as I can tell, the only clean sheet that Orlando has on the entire season was a 1-0 win over FC Naples.
The Targets
Cincinnati and Orlando face off, two of the worst defenses in the league. Orlando has had better results lately, but their last three wins (including in the Open Cup) have come by scoring four goals in each of them. They gave up three to Miami (understandable) and Philadelphia (less understandable). Meanwhile, since Cincinnati's 3-0 whipping of Tigres at home, they have allowed 38 goals in 12 games. Yes, that is an average of more than three goals a game. The two teams have allowed more than 70 goals between them in MLS play. We can expect fireworks.
DC hosts Montreal. Red Bulls are at SKC. Chicago hosts Toronto. San Jose is at Portland. Columbus hosts Atlanta. Miami plays Philadelphia. Adjust your rosters accordingly.
The Interesting
St. Louis plays Austin this week. Austin, after showing some good results, crashed back down to Earth last week by getting walloped by San Diego and then losing at home to SKC. Now the coach and GM are fired. As Matt Doyle pointed out in his Thursday round-up, St. Louis is 5W-3L-4D in their past 12 all-comps games. Their underlying numbers suggest they should be at least a fringe playoff team. Can they take out their frustrations on Austin (now the second-worst defense in the West by goals allowed) and leap them in the standings?
The Galaxy gets Houston this week, in an unassuming matchup between playoff teams. Houston has surged over the last four weeks with three wins, including a convincing 4-1 thrashing of a tired LAFC side and a gutsy 1-0 win over the Whitecaps, getting the winning goal in the 96th minute after being up a man for 30 minutes after Takaoka's red card. Meanwhile, the Galaxy had a dispiriting 3-1 loss at SKC and then smashed the Sounders in Seattle, so overall a pretty weird week. Could be a fun game.
The Major
Nashville is home against NYCFC. On paper this is one of the marquee matchups this week, first in the East against fifth, but the reality is less appealing. NYCFC lost Maxi Morales for the year to an ACL injury and have a mess of other injuries. I'm expecting a comfortable Nashville win, but who knows in this league – NYCFC have some game winners still.
Capping off the week on Sunday night, LAFC hosts the Sounders. Both teams are in a bit of a rut, with just one league win between them in the last four matches and LAFC on a three-game losing streak. But they are still quality teams and LAFC should be able to turn it around when they shake off the disappointing CCC run and get back to form. Key word being "should." It's possible Marc Dos Santos is just not a good MLS head coach, and it's also possible Seattle was defying the underlying numbers and getting some lucky early results. Should be a fun one to watch regardless.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Chicago - Hosting Toronto and they have one of the better defenses in the league. Elliott is probably the right call, though Mbokazi and Gutman should be decent picks, too.
Nashville - Elite defense hosting a great but injured squad. Palacios is still the pick, especially with Najar injured.
Miami - Hosting Philadelphia. I don't really like Miami's defense, but they got the shutout against Portland and could make it two in a row against Philly. Pick Micael.
St. Louis - Wildcard pick of the week, they start the week and could put on a good showing against a rudderless Austin squad. Polvara (KB) is the pick for Kickbase, but he's a mid on Sofa so there go with Baumgartl (Sofa). Note that Burki came off injured in the Open Cup, so you will probably want Lundt this weekend if you're picking for STL. Polvara and Baumgartl both went 120 minutes in the Open Cup, so you may be safer starting Totland or whoever else. We get the lineups before rosters lock, so you can wait to the last minute to see if any rotation is coming.
DC United - Hosting Montreal should be a reasonable spot to get a clean sheet, especially if DC is going to maintain its status as a playoff squad. I think the right picks are Rowles (KB) and Peltola (Sofa) (who is unfortunately a mid on KB).
LAFC - I hate to do it to ‘em but Seattle's offense has been marginal on the road and LAFC still have one of the stronger defenses in the league. Taking off my homer cap, this has to be a game where LAFC's rested legs favor them. I do think Seattle takes a result, but my bias has long since stained my analysis of Seattle and so I have to put LAFC here as a reasonable option. Best overall is probably Tafari.
Arfsten - He gets the last shoutout for his offensive wizardry going against Atlanta. I don't trust the Crew's overall defense, and Atlanta have been brute forcing goals on the road lately even though the wins have been lacking, so I'm just recommending Arfsten who is only a defender on Kickbase. You can pick him up for the midfield and he's reasonable on Sofascore, but you can probably find higher ceiling players over there.
Midfielders
The Usuals: Evander, De Paul, Berhalter, Gil. Top players in form, they are the non-Messi players to build your team around. I rate them roughly in this order this week (with Evander first by far).
Nico Fernandez (M/F) - He's got a tough row to hoe with so many injuries around him and no true forward to play off. Still, he's been magnificent this season and could carry NYCFC to a victory anyway.
Luna/Gozo - On the road to Minnesota is tough but this is their opportunity to make their closing statement of why they should be on the USMNT roster. I expect strong performances from them, though Luna is carrying a knock and is a real risk for minutes. He's listed as Questionable on the injury report. If he's done enough to make the USMNT he probably does not take a chance and sits out this weekend if the injury that kept him out last Saturday is still lingering.
Mukhtar/Espinoza (M/F) - At home against a weakened NYCFC team, I expect these guys to show up big. Mukhtar was transcendent against LAFC while Espi had a goose egg, though Espi has been more consistent over the past couple of months. Choose wisely (if you're choosing at all).
Bassett - He's at home against a slumping San Jose and has been the engine that is running Portland when they are doing well. San Jose is coming off a rough loss to Colorado on the road in the Open Cup and are pretty banged up. Bassett could have a pretty tidy week. Velde is another consideration as a Mid/Fwd with a pretty low floor but a high ceiling, though he's only really had two spectacular weeks.
McGlynn - He is playing for his USMNT hopes and should get a lot of minutes against the Galaxy, having come off before the 90th minute midweek. Reasonable flier to take. Guilherme is almost always a strong pick as well, but he did play 120 minutes in St. Louis midweek.
Valakari - With San Diego's resurgence, Valakari has been playing very well. Home to Vancouver will be tough but San Diego is unbeaten in four and has a lot to prove in this one.
Biel - An elite attacking mid playing at home. New England will be a tough opponent but Biel seems to find a way most weeks.
Forwards
Messi - _____ (fill in whatever, you know the drill)
Pec - He's in extremely good form and has a shaky Houston defense at home.
Denkey - Home against Orlando. He didn't do much against San Diego but was excellent against Miami. Orlando is an easier test than either of them.
Bouanga - Seattle has been mistake-prone at the back and LAFC can be deadly on the counter. Bouanga was great against Nashville and basically the entire reason they were competitive in that one. Son probably needs the World Cup break to get right.
Cuypers/Zinckernagel - This dynamic duo just keeps scoring. Cuypers still has scored in every game this year, though his scores heavily rely on the goals (he doesn't earn many other points).
Farrington - Colorado is coming off a midweek match and their defense has, at times, been very vulnerable. It's a road game but with Musa already gone for the World Cup, so this is great chance for Farrington to put the team on his back, as he has at times this year.
M. Ojeda (M/F) - He's playing at Cincinnati and is a major reason why Orlando's offense has reignited.
Judd - San Jose desperately needs points again and playing Portland is as good an opportunity as they'll get for some time. He should have a fine game.
Hall - He's the beneficiary of playing at SKC this week. Taking advantage of that matchup has not gone well for anyone recently, but I am not buying that SKC is a changed team with a bright future the rest of the year. He’s worth a look especially on Kickbase, where he is dirt cheap.
Captain considerations
Messi - I don't advise getting cute with it. More often than not it ends poorly.
Evander - Easily the best "differential" option if you’re morally opposed to Messi or just want to look like the smartest kid on the playground.
M. Ojeda - Cincinnati will probably score a lot, so Orlando likely will have to as well to keep up.
Hall - He's got one hat trick this year, can he make it two? This is definitely not a smart pick given most of his fantasy performances lately, but he has had some incredible games this year and you could be stumbling into one.
