Just like we had a few weeks ago, Week "12" is here, with a Kickbase true Double Game Week and Rounds 13 and 14 from Sofascore. Sofascore's first real "DGW" comes in Round 16 after the World Cup. The games kick off tonight at 4:15 pm PDT, so get your Sofascore transfers done by 3:45 and your Kickbase lineups in place by first kick.
As with all DGWs, your Kickbase lineup is going to be highly vulnerable to lineup surprises. The compact schedule, long travel, and upcoming World Cup fitness concerns mean some players might be extra protected this go-around. We also have eight teams in the US Open Cup Quarterfinals on the 19th/20th so could see some rotation from those squads. Still, the right combination of players will result in some very fun total scores this week.
Lastly, make sure to consult the injury report and disciplinary summary (especially for the players on a Yellow Card Warning who could easily be suspended for the weekend, including Biro, Zinckernagel, Urhoghide, Navarro, and Guilavogui). Good luck!
Week 13 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Thomas, Cabral, Takaoka, Daniel, Schwake, Crepeau
Defenders
Ragen, Caliskan/Sanabria, Laborda, Munie, Najar, Marin, Markanich
Midfielders
Evander, Gil, Luna, De Paul, Nico Fernandez (M/F), Biel, F. Torres (M/F), Rusnak, Carmona, Berhalter
Forwards
Messi, Uzuni, Cuypers, Pec/Paintsil, Dreyer, Prince Owusu, Denkey, Munteanu
Week 13 schedule
The only teams skipping midweek are Toronto and Atlanta. Not much of (fantasy) value is lost.
The USOC teams are: ORL v ATL, STL v HOU, CLB v. NYC, COL v. SJE. I am not going to make specific predictions, but I'd add a little weight to the consideration of players rotating on these squads.
Double Home: Charlotte, DC, Montreal, New England, NYRB, Orlando, RSL, San Diego, Seattle
Home/Away: Cincinnati, Dallas, SKC, Minnesota, St. Louis
Away/Home: Miami, Nashville, Philadelphia, Houston, Austin, San Jose
Double Away: NYCFC, Chicago, Portland, Columbus, Vancouver, Galaxy, Colorado, LAFC
The Good
Real Salt Lake are hosting Houston and Colorado this week, two unimposing defenses. Given RSL's strength at home, I like them to score goals and take points. Houston does have wins in four of their last five, but their only win in that span over a playoff team was against an exhausted LAFC side.
Seattle does have a game against San Jose, a team that sieged them for over 2.0 xG, but the Quakes will be without Tsakiris for months and will not have Werner back for this one. And their second match is against the Galaxy, a reasonable squad by advanced metrics, but one which in reality is sitting at ninth with an even 4-4-4 record. Despite only managing 1-1 draws in their past two matches against some otherwise poor defenses, Seattle still put in their two highest xG games of the year and on another night might have scored 3 goals in each.
Austin flies to play San Diego on Wednesday then hosts Sporting Kansas City on Saturday. Anyone playing SKC this year has to be on the list of having a likely good matchup.
Miami has a winnable game at Cincinnati, then gets to host Portland in a cross-country match with the Timbers already coming off a long midweek road match at Montreal.
Galaxy play at SKC on Wednesday. Great time to pick them up, though as mentioned above, they have to go to Seattle on Saturday.
The Interesting
Montreal intrigues me this week, playing one really weak defense with Portland and then getting Chicago, who are having a bit of an identity crisis, losing their past two matches and giving up three goals in each.
Charlotte hosts NYCFC and then Toronto, who are finally leaving the cozy confines of home after nine games straight at home. Charlotte is winless in four so it is hard to recommend them strongly, but I am interested.
The Red Bulls may have Justin Che starting again this week after his unfortunate hamstring injury earlier this year, getting him back on track after a very strong start to the season. He should vastly shore up some of their deficiencies, and NYRB has a derby against NYCFC on the weekend after hosting Columbus. Tough to predict but I'd like to see how the kid reintegrates.
The Major
DC hosts Chicago tonight, a surprising matchup of 5th place hosting 4th place, then gets St. Louis on the weekend. It would be a highly unlikely outcome, but it is mathematically possible that DC could end up in 2nd place in the East by the end of the weekend. That would require both the Revs and Miami to lose twice and DC to win twice while making up a 9 goal deficit, but it's within the realm of possibility. And DC winning twice is not at all farfetched! Munteanu is playing great and could have an even higher ceiling when Baribo is healthy. They had a pretty nice 2-0 lead over Nashville last weekend before a second yellow put them in the hole, and still hung on for 2-2 road draw against the top Eastern side.
New England also has a surprising 6-0-0 start at home in Fortress Foxborough and a share of 2nd in the East. Two more home games are up next, with Nashville and Minnesota coming to town. Nashville will be the Revs toughest test yet and Minnesota is right there just a point behind them in the Supporters Shield standings. Should be a couple of fun games (though hard to declare any favorites here).
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Defenses across DGW are quite a crapshoot. The good defenses generally play strong offenses and may have double road games, and the weak offenses are mostly going against bad defenses and are at home.
Seattle - They are playing two prolific offenses in San Jose and the Galaxy (who are on a loooong streak of scoring goals) but still have the best defense in the league by GA and are now in their home game stretch. I don't think you can expect CSs here but Ragen scores well anyway.
Real Salt Lake - Houston and Colorado have great offenses, but RSL is still a very good home team. Go Caliskan on Sofascore and Sanabria on Kickbase (their positions are flipped on each site).
Vancouver - The Caps are double away on a potentially hot Texas trip, but the defense is too good to leave off. As usual my recommendation is Laborda.
San Jose - At Seattle will be tough, but home to Dallas should be somewhat easier for this strong defense. They will need more game control than they had against Vancouver to pull it off, but they have shown they are fully capable this year. I'd pick Munie, though Roberts and Ricketts should be right there with him.
Nashville - I am very hesitant to take them considering their difficult schedule: at New England (2nd in East) and then hosting LAFC (3rd in West), but they're still one of the strongest teams in the league and now have had a bit of rest. There are a few viable options here, but I am leaning towards Najar this week.
Orlando?? - I don't really like this pick BUT they are home twice and it is against Philadelphia and Atlanta, two of the four worst offenses in the league. If you're interested in this madness it looks like the right choice to me is Marin.
Markanich - This madman keeps scoring goals, I don't really understand how he keeps getting into these positions but he just has a nose for it.
Midfielders
Evander - Home against Miami and then at San Diego, he's a top choice for good reason.
Gil - Two home games, though they may be difficult. His form is great, it seems New England is perhaps going to do something interesting with the window of his excellence.
Luna - Another with two home games, he looks to be storming into the USMNT heading to the World Cup.
De Paul - I was kind of down on him after a couple of mediocre weeks, but he was excellent in Toronto. There's an outside chance he's rested against Cincinnati, but I doubt it. Two good matchups for him.
Nico Fernandez (M/F) - Just like De Paul, he had a couple of down weeks but was back to excellent form against Columbus. This week they are at Charlotte then cross-town against the Red Bulls. Not ideal but not the worst schedule.
Biel - Double home games against NYCFC and Toronto, two beatable defenses.
F. Torres (M/F) - At San Diego, then the beneficiary of being home against Kansas City. I don't think this is the week SKC turns it around, so it makes sense to try and take advantage.
Rusnak - I believe in him and the Sounders this week. They should score 3-5 goals and he'll probably be involved in half of them.
Carmona - Perhaps a bit out of left field, but he's generally had excellent starts when healthy. He had one start where he got injured, one poor outing coming back from injury, and had a poor game when Montreal fell victim to New England at Foxborough. In his other four (good) starts? 15, 7, 9, 8 on Sofascore and 330, 157, 173, 202 on Kickbase. Top-tier numbers if he can sustain that, although that's a huge IF and assumes he gets the minutes this week. It is a double home week though and his price is very cheap. If you need to fix your budget, he could help you get there as a high risk, high reward option.
Berhalter - Perhaps not a prime week to take him given Vancouver is on the road, but he's still a top option with a high floor and a ceiling competitive with anyone else.
Forwards
Messi - He continues to prove why he is the GOAT.
Uzuni - For the same reasons as F. Torres above, great schedule and he's had some home-run games recently. That should be true again against SKC. On Kickbase, where they are both fowards, I like Uzuni a little better for the higher ceiling and slightly cheaper price.
Cuypers - He snuck in a goal that looked like an OG last weekend to keep his scoring streak alive. This week he has a tough game against DC, but then a plus matchup in Montreal.
Pec/Paintsil - This is the pair that gets to attack SKC tonight. They have to go to Seattle on the weekend so that will be tough, but tonight's game might more than make up for it.
Dreyer - They get a double home week and have something to prove after being unable to secure wins in their last two matches despite having a lead in both. I think he'll perform admirably for those bold enough to take him.
Prince Owusu - Home match midweek against Portland is a great matchup, and then the game against Chicago could be interesting. Chicago has a good defense on paper with the underlying numbers, but Gregg Berhalter has adjusted their shape and they gave up three goals in each of their last two games.
Denkey - Home to Miami and then at San Diego. Every matchup is at least a decent one with Evander pulling the strings.
Munteanu - Still on a strong run of form. The schedule is not the easiest this week, but he still has two home games. I am very curious to see what the offense looks like with Baribo back in there as a starter.
Captain considerations
Messi - Weekly reminder that he's your top choice and you have to have a pretty good reason not to pick him.
Pec - He plays SKC.
Uzuni - He also plays SKC.
Gil - Two big home games for him to step up, he's in form and really tough to bet against right now.
Finest Fifteen
Messi, Uzuni, Pec, Dreyer
Gil, Evander, Luna, Biel, De Paul
Ragen, Caliskan/Sanabria, Markanich, Laborda
Schwake, Thomas
