By the time the Seattle Sounders kick off their Leagues Cup match against Chivas de Guadalajara tonight, there’s a pretty good chance that both teams will have already been eliminated from the competition.

Chivas, in fact, are already out thanks to claiming just one point from their first two games.

As the day starts, though, the Sounders are at least technically alive, even if they don’t control their own destiny. The short version is that they’d need to win by at least three goals and then pass 10 teams in the standings.

Here’s a rough guide of the outside results they need to happen:

Austin FC, Chicago Fire and FC Dallas to each lose in regulation AND
LAFC to do no better than losing in a shootout AND
Minnesota United to do no better than a shootout win AND
Nashville SC to do no better than a one-goal win AND
Portland Timbers, Inter Miami, New York City FC and Philadelphia Union to win by no more than two goals AND
Orlando City to not win by more goals than the Sounders AND
San Diego FC to win by no better than one goal more than the Sounders

All of which is to say, the Sounders will likely be playing a dead-rubber match against Chivas.

Notes

The Sounders enter this match with an all-time Leagues Cup record of 11–6–1 and an all-time record of 14–14–6 against Liga MX opponents. That includes a 1–1–0 record against Chivas in actual competition.
Edson Carli, Mark O'Neill, Mark Bronnik, Charlie Gaffney, Mohammed Shour and Gallatin Sandnes are all available on short-term loan from Tacoma Defiance.