Something that we don't like to talk about around these parts is playing surfaces. All three PNW teams normally play on some version of FieldTurf. This artificial turf product is a looooooong way away from the old AstroTurf surfaces that were a blight upon humanity, but it still has a distinct profile as compared to natural grass. The two biggest differences for soccer purposes are that the ball generally bounces higher and a little less predictably, and passes along the ground go faster and take longer to slow down.
Over the years, this has turned into an advantage for these home teams. They know the bounces better and can more accurately weight their passes to hit players in the right positions. The artificial product is more consistent through the variety of weather these regions experience (or don't experience, in Vancouver's case). It is one of the reasons, though perhaps a small one in the grand scheme, why these places can be difficult for visiting teams.
It is less so for natural grass. Great groundskeepers can maintain natural grass in a consistent manner, but no living product can be as consistent as something that is dead. The surface is going to change slightly from game to game from the natural effects of weather, growth and use.
The Sounders now get to experience this joy at home for an extended period for the first time. They are no strangers to grass, practicing on it regularly and, of course, playing on it elsewhere around the league. But it is always a little different at home.
Surfaces are not something we always seriously consider for fantasy purposes, but maybe we should. I have not looked into it closely, but I do wonder how field differences affect fantasy scores. Do the turf teams benefit when playing on other teams' turf since they are used to an artificial playing surface, or does it hurt since they might be used to different turf and find it harder to adjust? Are turf teams naturally higher volume passers since the ball moves quicker? Are grass teams better on defense with passes slowing down more on natural grass? Is there an advantage to slightly favoring players from teams playing on grass, to have a slightly higher chance of avoiding major injuries to your chosen players?
I think a lot of these questions cannot reasonably be answered in a satisfying manner, since we can’t isolate these variables from–gestures wildly–everything MLS. But we might get some hints with Seattle now playing a few games on natural grass. I'd love to see an explosion of fantasy points from the Sounders for many reasons.
Week 8 quick rankings
Goalkeepers
Takaoka, Turner, Blake, Thomas, Brady, Gavran
Defenders
Laborda/Blackmon, Ceballos, Harriel, Nouhou, Gutman, Lareya/Zimmerman
Midfielders
Berhalter/Muller, Aaronson, Guilherme (M/F), Tsakiris, Nico Fernandez (M/F), Rusnak, Gil, Mukhtar, Gozo/Luna
Forwards
Messi, Musa, Hall, White, Navarro, Yeboah
Week 8 schedule
Keep in mind we have a lot of teams coming off midweek action. The four CCC clubs likely have some rotation, especially Nashville and LAFC, who played in Mexico. But 16 additional clubs played midweek Open Cup games: New England, Austin, NYC, Chicago, SKC, Colorado, Minnesota, Orlando, Columbus, DC, NYRB, Atlanta, Charlotte, St. Louis, Houston, and San Jose.
Of those teams, Austin lost on the road to Louisville City using a mix of starters and depth, Kansas City lost 3-0 on the road to Colorado Springs despite using a mostly full-strength squad (lol), and NE, MIN, and DC went all the way to PKs, with NE and MIN prevailing. Just some ideas on who to target and who might be on tired legs.
Also, I'm getting right to it but note that there is a Friday night game, so make sure your lineups are locked in by Friday afternoon.
And another thing for Sofascore players: "Gameweek 9" is the midweek matches taking place on 4/22, so a bunch of teams are on "bye" for the game week. For this week, you may want to transfer out or avoid transferring in players from Chicago, Montreal, Nashville, Portland, Seattle, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Vancouver.
The Good
Vancouver hosts SKC this week. This is an enormous mismatch, especially with SKC coming off a really bad midweek showing. They could come out with some fire, but really, do we expect them to do better against Vancouver than they did against Colorado Springs?? It’s a good week to load up on the max Vancouver players you can fit into the squad, though as mentioned above for Sofascore, they are on bye the next game round.
Houston plays at Orlando. Houston has a much better attack than the Columbus attack that couldn't do similar crazy things against Orlando as others have. Though Orlando has Robin Jansson back at CB, a huge upgrade. Still, Houston's defense has also struggled, so this seems more likely to be a shootout than anything else.
Nashville is playing at Atlanta. Atlanta remains bad, while Nashville has shown itself to be one of the top teams on the continent by beating Club America straight up at Estadio Azteca to advance. Nashville has been keen on rotating their guys, and Surridge being injured is not helpful, but I still expect them to get the job done.
The Interesting
Miami plays at Colorado in what could easily be the craziest game of the week. Messi has cast off the burden of playing under Mascherano (or something like that, I'm really not sure what their vibe was) and maybe could be unlocked now that he has a yes-man in charge? Meanwhile, Colorado has been building one of the nastiest and best attacking teams in the league. It’s a big game for each of these teams to offer proof of concept of what they are trying to do this year.
Dallas hosts the Galaxy this week, who got a nice road win against Austin and then face-planted at home against Toluca. That was, frankly, quite embarrassing. Can Musa and friends rip apart the Galaxy like Toluca did? Will the Galaxy right the ship, especially if Paintsil is ready for serious minutes again? Who knows!
Seattle faces St. Louis at home this week, the first of their home league games on natural grass. St. Louis is coming off of two reasonably good showings in a pair of 1-1 road draws, but Seattle is coming off of a frenetic midweek "win" over Tigres that was only a "loss" due to the away goals rule. I expect Seattle to win, especially after earning three points away to St. Louis earlier this year, but this match could be closer than is generally expected.
The Major
RSL welcomes SD this week. RSL is very well-rested, having had last week off and no midweek game. SD also did not play midweek, but they keep struggling in league play, losing 2-1 to Minnesota last weekend with another red card to McVey to top it off. I think RSL has the players to kick SD further down the standings, but SD is still has a good roster and could make a game out of it. RSL is up in 4th in the West, but SD could jump them with a win.
NYCFC plays Charlotte this week, a battle of 4th vs. 5th in the East. Both teams have 11 points and are 3-2-2 and have conceded 9 goals on the season, the only thing separating them is NYC has scored 14 goals and Charlotte has scored 13. Both teams won their Open Cup games with decently rotated sides, with NYC getting a 5-2 win at Westchester and Charlotte somehow convincing another team (Charlotte Independence) to once again get an early red en route to a 6-0 demolishing. The script is suggesting this will be a draw if it ends 11v11, but it's a big game for both sides.
Finally, the biggest game of the week is LAFC hosting San Jose on Sunday. They are 2nd and 3rd in the West and this game could be a big difference maker for playoff seeding (maybe even the Supporters’ Shield). I think a big factor will be how much gas LAFC has available after their Mexico trip. LAFC had it pretty well in hand midweek, but playing in Mexico is never easy and Cruz Azul made them work for it. I think it is entirely likely SJ gets another impressive road win and shutout.
Thoughts and Players
Defenses
Vancouver - Kansas City couldn't score on Colorado Springs and Vancouver seems likely to drop a bucket of goals on SKC's heads (which are pretty valuable in Kickbase). Laborda and Blackmon are the best plays, but Johnson or Ocampo could be useful as budget options. Fortunately, you get to see the lineup before the match locks, so you can address any surprises if necessary.
Toronto - I do not believe in Austin's attack and Toronto has been on the cusp of some shutouts recently, if not for a few slight lapses and bad luck. I'd like them a lot better if Zimmerman is also off the injury report. Otherwise, you can go with Lareya.
Philadelphia - Just taking advantage of DC's terrible offense. Think the right guy is Harriel, though you can get Westfield for a cheaper option.
New England - They showed up great against DC (I should have been more proactive about getting them on my teams) and now face Columbus, who are down their DP striker. Rossi is plenty dangerous, but Columbus could only put one past Orlando. This will be a bigger ask for the Revs this week, but Columbus is giving me zero confidence recently. Go for Ceballos again.
Seattle - Just two goals allowed in league play, both on the road at RSL. I like them at home against St. Louis, though I stand by my assessment that St. Louis remains somewhat dangerous. This is especially true if Seattle's poor corner marking against Tigres carries into league play. Still, I like the Seattle defense and recommend them. I think Nouhou is still the play, with Ragen being close behind and Lopez being a budget option but a risky pick. It seems that Schmetzer's preferred formation right now has Alex Roldan at RCB and Kalani Kossa-Rienzi at RB, and with no midweek game and no travel right now there is less need to rotate, but Lopez could easily slot in to give Alex or KKR a break.
Chicago - They are on the road this week, but Cincinnati is a total mess and Denkey is suspended for a red card. Plus, Chicago's defense has been solid especially now that Elliott and Mbokazi are both healthy. Mbokazi is on the best form and has a higher floor, but Gutman has the highest ceiling. Matched up against Cincy? I'll go for the attacking potential of Gutman first.
Midfielders
Berhalter/Müller - Berhalter remains the best midfielder in fantasy and one of the best in the league, full stop. I think Müller will have a great game as well, as he thrives in his ability to punish bad teams like SKC.
Guilherme (M/F) - Continual insane scores. He only played 45 midweek so he's relatively fresh. And this week gets to attack the Orlando defense. Pick him please.
Aaronson - He's really flourishing in Colorado's system this year, and he gets to attack the Miami defense at home. Can they handle the altitude? I doubt it. He does have some rough defenses coming up after though, so this might not be the time to bring him in on Sofascore.
Tsakiris - I don't care that he's going up against LAFC, his growth as an attacker is one of the best things going in the league this year. I hope he continues his trajectory and ushers in a new era of creative San Jose soccer.
Nico Fernandez (M/F) - His last two games have been mediocre/disappointing, but I believe in the talent and expect he'll show better back home. Maybe not a top-5 option if you are looking to play a hot hand against good matchups, but don't be too quick to abandon him.
Rusnak - Two superb goals midweek, it seems he likes Lumen’s natural grass. He can be a streaky player, but when he gets hot he REALLY gets hot. I understand he's been dealing with a bit of hip pain or something, so there's an outside chance he isn't started for this one, but I expect he'll get most of the minutes and have plenty of opportunities to follow up his brace with another.
Gil - He hasn't the kind of massive blowout scores that he's had in the past, and which some of his teammates have had this year, but his play is steady and he is always involved, getting strong, high-floor scores weekly in fantasy.
Mukhtar - This is a bit of a guess that he'll start in Atlanta, but I like him to carry the torch in those friendly confines when/if Surridge is out. You could take a stab at another Nashville mid like Tagseth or Yazbek, but I am not as sold on their reliability for fantasy purposes. Espinoza (M/F) would be an excellent option if you could guarantee he was starting.
Gozo/Luna - These guys looked great before their little break, and I think they can take the game to San Diego. I'd be very happy with Gozo in my team, and have him in several KB lineups.
Forwards
Messi - Now that he's basically the coach I'm curious to see what happens. Does he go supernova again? Or does the team break down without a real tactician in charge?
Musa - The Galaxy defense coming to town is plenty vulnerable. Musa has not been as hot but he's still very good.
Navarro - Okay, he has been red hot. Will the Miami defense prove as vulnerable as others? Maybe not, but he's still a good choice this week.
White - Playing against SKC while rested and SKC isn't and is on their second road game of the week? Sign me up!
Hall - Playing at Montreal is another really good matchup advantage. He's showing his early success is sustainable.
Yeboah - He's on a good run of form and Portland comes to town this week. Good opportunity for him.
Bouanga - If anyone is going to be able to break the SJ defense it is Bouanga. He's likely got plenty of minutes still in his legs, but that remains to be seen. The game is Sunday, so that's an advantage, plus both this one and the Wednesday match are home games. I'm hesitant because of SJ's defensive success this year, but I gotta get him on here in honor of how he can blow up at any time.
Captain Considerations
Messi - Maybe not the ideal matchup, but he's Messi and now he's unburdened by a coach he did not agree with enough. It could be very fun to see what he can do in Colorado.
Berhalter - Any of him, White, Muller, Laborda, or Blackmon could have monstrous days against SKC. I'd go with Berhalter as even if it is someone else who scores all the goals, he's got a very high floor to work with.
Guilherme - Extremely good forward on a powerful attack against what has been, so far, the worst defense in the league. I've got him captained all over Kickbase right now (where he's a forward).
Ceballos (Sofa) - He's been putting in a ton of work recently, driving New England's turnaround. I think he and the team can keep it up against Columbus.
Finest Fifteen
Messi - Musa - White - Navarro/Guilherme
Berhalter - Tsakiris - Rusnak - Aaronson - Guildherme/Gozo
Ceballos - Laborda - Nouhou - Harriel
Takaoka - Thomas
