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Three stats: Seattle Reign vs. Portland Thorns

Looking at the data behind the Reign's 2-0 home win.

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4 min read
Sam Meza dribbles at Portland Thorns defenders in the Reign's 2-0 win at Lumen Field. Photo by Mike Russell / Sounder at Heart

Seattle Reign returned to Lumen Field on Sunday, July 12, with a lot to prove. After several disappointing home performances, the Reign were motivated to deliver a strong performance for their home fans. In front of nearly 15,000 supporters, the Reign did just that — downing their rivals Portland Thorns FC 2-0 on goals from Ryanne Browne and Maddie Mercado.

Reign down Thorns, 2-0, at home
The Cascadia victory brings Seattle within three points of the playoff line.

There's nothing like a rivalry win to motivate another edition of the Ride of the Valkyries "Three Stats" series, which I hope to continue for the rest of the season.

Here are three stats from the match:

0.05

The Thorns had 26 shots and 35 touches in the Reign box, and you'd assume that meant they were peppering the Reign with chance after chance after chance. And that is somewhat true, especially in the second half. Still, while Cassie Miller was rightfully named Player of the Match for her career-high nine saves, the Reign also did an incredible job of putting bodies between the ball and the goal — limiting Portland to very few uncontested shots in the box. As a result, the Thorns generated just 1.37 expected goals (xG) from their 26 shots (per FotMob).

That averages out to just 0.05 xG per shot. That's quite low. Portland's average is about twice that high (.10 xG per shot).

xG models consider several factors when rating a shot, including distance from the goal, the shot angle, and the number of defenders behind the ball.

This video illustrates just how difficult the Reign defense made it for Portland. Even though Sophia Wilson gets around Phoebe McClernon, Ryanne Brown is right there to step in between Wilson and the goal. While Wilson gets off a good shot, Miller has the angle covered and makes a strong save. Several Reign players are there to handle the rebound.

0:00
/0:21

It's no surprise that Portland finished with 10 blocked shots. The Reign defenders stood strong all match.

By comparison, the Reign generated 1.78 xG in the match and averaged 0.10 xG per shot — double Portland's rate.

I also mentioned before the game that Portland was a first-half team. Coming into the game, they generated and scored on many more chances in the first half. The Reign managed to flip that script on Sunday. They scored twice before halftime, and Portland only generated 0.47 xG in the first 45 minutes.

That was just the second time all season that Portland has been shut out. Their only other shutout was a scoreless draw against Angel City. This is a Portland attack that has been clicking all season but has shown signs of cracks defensively. The Reign demonstrated on Sunday how much an effective high press — combined with a team-wide commitment to defense — could also limit Portland offensively.

736

Ryanne Brown's last start was on July 7, 2024, the day she tore her ACL. She faced additional setbacks on her journey back to the field. While Brown has been available this season, her minutes have been limited to sub appearances late in a match. With Madison Curry out with an injury, Brown earned her first start in 736 days. Not only did she score the game-winning goal with a banger, but Brown also played 78 minutes, found several pockets of space on the right wing to push the Reign's attack, and was a big part of the Reign's defensive success.

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Welcome back, Ryanne.

Can we also give a shoutout to Ainsley McCammon for that assist? McCammon continues to demonstrate her elite passing vision and range — and that was certainly on display against Portland. She was a big part of the build-up on both goals. In addition to the assist, McCammon made a smart pass to Maddie Dahlien on the left wing, who then cut it back to Sam Meza for the cross into the box on the second goal.

54

We couldn't end this "Three Stats" article without a shoutout for Sam Meza as well. Her double-tackle to jumpstart the Reign's second goal was exactly what builds momentum for a team. And, as head coach Laura Harvey said after the game, her cross into the box is something Meza's been working hard on — releasing the pass earlier when her teammates are set in the box.

*chef's kiss* by the Reign's Sam Meza

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— LP (@likkitp.ynyaproductions.com) 3:47 PM · Jul 12, 2026

Meza finished the match with six tackles, 10 recoveries (the highest of any outfield player), and nine ground duels won. Meza continues to lead the league in tackles, with 54 after Sunday's rivalry match.

On top of the statistics, Meza was a big reason that Olivia Moultrie struggled to make an impact for the Thorns. Moultrie has been playing at an MVP level this season, and she finished with just 0.06 expected assists, which was the seventh-best mark in the game and among her lowest. When you've got a motivated Meza chasing you everywhere, that'll happen.

We're so lucky Sam Meza plays for the Reign.


The Reign hope to build on this momentum as they head on a three-game road trip. First up is a trip to the east coast to face Gotham FC on Saturday, July 18. That match kicks off at 9 a.m. PT and will air on ABC.

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