According to one source the Seattle Sounders have a 24% chance of making the MLS Cup Playoffs. That's too dang low for a team with this history and too low for a team with this much talent.
By now we all know what went wrong, what exacerbated the wrong and then what made that even worse.
There are 12 matches left for Sounders – six at home and six on the road. That's more remaining games than every other Western Conference team and two or three more than nine of the teams above them. Even a micro streak of good could take Brian Schmetzer's team up to 7th. A longer run could have them challenge for looking like a good team stuck in 7th. Frankly, we're at a point where 7th is both a best case and a middle case for the team. They probably aren't getting above 1.60 ppm, which means we only get one home game in the playoffs.
Seventh isn't good enough. Neither is a miracle run to 6th or even 5th. Dreaming of fourth is kind of foolish.
A bad season doesn't require a bad run-in.
I'd much rather have a fun run-in watching the team we love dominate for a few weeks under the grey skies in the rain. That would be much more fun than we've had since April, despite the great summer around Puget Sound.
Streaking, with a more healthy team and multiple DPs playing, would be a thrill. Deki, Albert and Jordan can be a big three. None are so far away from their best that a 10- to 15-match run of awesome is out of the question.
As we've all seen great-inspires-great and the spiral of fear with hopelessness can spread.
This fall shouldn't be focused on building for the future. That time is past. Those players earned their time and will continue to do so. Those that want to see the future can go to Starfire on Sunday, September 20 to watch Defiance v. T2 in what will likely be a playoff-clinching performance by a team that decided to get hot late while riding a brilliant 9’s form as he was supported by the cast-offs and the supposedly not ready. They won, a lot.
Winning is fun.
The Sounders should do that again, many times. The streak has to start Saturday against a Galaxy team that for the past decade is more mediocre than galacticos. It must continue against the other dredges of the West.
And then it needs Sounders to prove that our sunshine is a black hole sun, washing away the pain.
Because this fanbase will show up in the cold, the wet and the hopefulness of Rave Green. We're ready to support a winner, always have been.
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Catching up on Sounder at Heart
Here's what you missed on the site this week.
Sounders
Next match: Saturday at LA Galaxy at 7:30 pm PT.
Galaxy are two points ahead of Seattle while playing three more matches. Four LA players have five goals in MLS play. Seattle has one player who has done that with this team in 2026.
- Where Sounders can hurt LA Galaxy and what they need to guard against
- Hope is quickly becoming a scarce resource
- Kalani Kossa-Rienzi out 2–3 weeks with ankle sprain
- Sounders’ xG against Red Bull offers some ray of hope
- Realio’s Ratings: The rule of threes (and none of them points)
- Postgame Pontifications: Decision-making problem
- Mixed bag: Sounders secure shutout, but can’t get 3 points
- Sounders offer Caden Clark chance at redemption
This newsletter was made possible through the support of Full Pull Wines, a boutique wines reseller that has been sponsoring us since 2011.
Reign
Next match: Saturday hosting Bay FC at 5 pm PT on NWSL+.
Reign are undefeated at home in their last five matches, with only one draw. The offense is young, exciting and worthy of your time.
- Match Preview: Seattle Reign vs Bay FC
- Training notes: Ami Diallo arrives in Seattle
- The Cooler Guild: The Maddies craft another win
- Reign forward Maddie Mercado’s 2027 contract option exercised
- Reign hold on to beat Wave, 1-0
Defiance
Next match: Sunday at Ventura County (Galaxy) at 7 pm PM on YouTube and OneFootball.
Ventura County already locked up a playoff spot with an outside shot of winning the division. With two games remaining Defiance are hovering just over the playoff line.
Looking back at the news
Fourteen other soccer things you need to know
NWSL and women's soccer
- Saloons, school and specialty coffee: NWSL players enjoy new era of side hustles (The Guardian)
- What does Racing Louisville's NWSL future look like – and does the club even have one? (ESPN)
- KC Current Players have Strong Reaction to Vlatko’s Departure (KC Soccer Journal)
- Netflix reportedly courting Andrés Cantor for 2027 Women’s World Cup (Awful Announcing)
- How do you want to watch women's sports? (Watch Women's Sports)
- ‘Rapinoe’ Review: Megan Rapinoe Portrait Is More Than Just Another Celebrity Doc (The Wrap)
- 2026 Ballon d’Or nominees: USWNT, NWSL, and Liga Femenil BBVA represented (All for XI)
- ‘Having a professional women’s division today is basically philanthropy’: The struggle to survive at the top of French women’s football (Le Monde)
MLS and men's soccer
- MLS’s transfer window and the spending line that keeps going up (The Guardian)
- MLS’s proposed playoff format is complicated — but it's also an upgrade (Backheeled, a Sounder at Heart partner)
- Leagues Cup concludes with average attendance flat, total up 7% (Sport Business Journal)
- USL adopts revenue-sharing model with men's clubs (ESPN). The CBA is also ratified through 2030. (ESPN)
- Don Garber Takes Role in U.S. Soccer Federation (Blazing Musket)
Puget Sounder news and culture
- Two familiar Seattle tech figures turn up on Seahawks co-owner list as sale is finalized (GeekWire) One current, Carlyle, and one former Reign owner, via the Rainiers, on the list.
- See Soundgarden’s Surviving Members Perform Halftime at Seahawks Game (Rolling Stone)
- GET READY TO SHAKEOUT! (Great Washington Shakeout) The annual earthquake and tsunami safety drill is one month out. Team Rubicon offers these tips on how to stay in communication during a disaster.
- The guide to marketing games in a zero-click world (Full Moon Storytelling)
