Takeaways from the start of the World Cup knockouts

The group stage is a wrap, the knockout rounds are underway and the 2026 World Cup is reminding us why it's one of the most compelling sporting events on the planet.

With the Round of 32 already delivering plenty of drama, here are a few takeaways from the opening days of the knockout stage, with a look ahead to the USMNT's massive clash with Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday.

Canada 1, South Africa 0

Canada didn't light the world on fire during the group stage. An opening draw against Bosnia and Herzegovina raised questions as to whether Jesse Marsch's side had enough attacking punch to make a deep run, and while the 6-0 rout of Qatar was eye-catching, it came against a team that looked among the weakest in the tournament and got two crash-out red cards in the match.

But Canada's 1-0 win over South Africa in the Round of 32 felt like the kind of result serious teams have to produce if they're going to stick around in knockout soccer. Plenty of viewers were quick to label the match a slog, but surviving and advancing often means embracing ugly wins when they present themselves.

The challenge only gets steeper with Morocco waiting in the Round of 16, but Canada suddenly have a little momentum. And perhaps more importantly, they're getting Alphonso Davies back at just the right time. Having one of the world's most dynamic players available could significantly raise Canada's ceiling. Morocco will deservedly enter as favorites, but Canada have at least put themselves in a position where an upset doesn't feel impossible.

Germany 1 (3), Paraguay 1 (4)

No result in the opening days of the knockout stage was more surprising than Paraguay's elimination of Germany on penalties.

Germany entered the tournament as one of the favorites and looked the part in the group stage, advancing after two games before fielding a rotated lineup in their Group E finale defeat to Ecuador. Paraguay, meanwhile, arrived in the Round of 32 despite a 4-1 defeat to the USA, leaving few expecting them to make much noise in the knockouts.

And yet, this is exactly what makes the World Cup so compelling. No matter how talented a squad may be or how heavily favored, tournament soccer always leaves room for chaos.

Paraguay essentially authored the blueprint for how underdogs can topple a heavyweight. They stuck first, defended relentlessly, weathered Germany's push for an equalizer and, after eventually conceding, held firm long enough to force penalties.

Then, once the match reached the shootout, Paraguay seized the moment. Goalkeeper Orlando Gill emerged as the hero, saving two penalties and helping force another miss and Paraguay completed what will go down as an all-time World Cup upset.

Netherlands 1 (2), Morocco 1 (3)

This match was everything you could ask for from a World Cup knockout game: Two quality sides trading punches for 120 minutes, moments of individual brilliance, momentum swings, and a penalty shootout that felt cruel given how little separated the teams. In some ways, it was one of those matches where neither side deserved to go home.

But by the end, Morocco's advancement felt earned. They were arguably the better team for long stretches, found a hugely important equalizer with elimination staring them in the face, and then showed remarkable composure in the decisive shootout to finish the job.

The result felt at least a little symbolic. Morocco announced themselves to the world with their remarkable run at the 2022 World Cup, but there was still a sense that they were an underdog punching above their weight. What we're seeing now feels like different. Going toe-to-toe with a traditional heavyweight like the Netherlands and ultimately coming out on top suggests this is no longer an underdog story.

Calling it a changing of the guard might be overstating it, but Morocco increasingly look like a nation that belongs among the established powers.

USMNT vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina

This match hasn't happened yet, but in the spirit of my ongoing USMNT coverage, let's wrap with a quick thought on what might just be the biggest match in US Soccer history when the Yanks take on Bosnia in their opening knockout stage match on Wednesday.

The US have largely answered questions throughout this World Cup despite the stumble against Türkiye, but this matchup feels like another opportunity to prove that this squad is ready for the next step. Win, and the USMNT will have earned their place in the Round of 16 along with some of the tournament's most compelling stories. Lose, and not only would they be a rare host nation to not advance, but they'd also get tossed back in the same bucket as underachieving US teams of past eras.

Bosnia are not an opponent to be taken lightly by any stretch. But given their status as the host nation and a pretty undisputed raw-talent advantage, the Americans are going to enter this as favorites to advance, and they'll have a rested and more or less healthy first-choice starting XI that performed at a dominant clip in their first two matches of the group stage. With legacies on the line like this, that's about all you can ask for.